We're going to have our Virginia poll. Tuesday will be the newest numbers for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General and then Wednesday we'll have the latest on Barack Obama's popularity in the state, what impact he and Sarah Palin would have in campaigning for Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell respectively, and whether Virginians think he was born in the United States or not.
In a result making me want to bang my head against the table, the first round of calls for our Virginia poll this afternoon founds voters in the state almost evenly split on whether they thought the President was born in the US. We're polling North Carolina next week, and I am almost definitely going to throw a question on there asking people whether they think Hawaii is a state or not.
Speaking of that, we'll be finalizing the North Carolina questionnaire on Monday and if you think there are any burning questions we need to ask there might be room for one or two more.
Follow us on twitter, and have a good weekend!
Where should we poll next week?
Friday, July 31, 2009
Party ID and the Obama decline
Barack Obama's approval is clearly on the decline and there's been a lot of bad polling recently for Democrats related to 2009 and 2010 races but one thing that doesn't seen to be changing concurrently is the nation's party identification breakdown.
If you look at this handy chart pollster.com keeps of party id among registered and likely voters, it's basically flat since January. Overall Democrats have a 38-31 advantage over Republicans, almost unchanged from the 39/32 spread exit polls showed nationally on election day in November.
So if there's no party id shift but Dems are polling poorly, what's going on? Two things:
1) Independents aren't reacting as well to Democrats now as they were a year or six months ago, which is not surprising. They'll be back with us this time next year if there's significant progress on the economy and if not they probably won't.
2) Republicans are getting hyper partisan. We are frequently finding approval ratings of less than 15% among them for Obama and some Governors and Senators in our state by state polling. It's usually not that low.
Given the fact that there hasn't been a major shift in the partisan landscape Democrats will be fine next year if they can get their folks out and get back to the break even point with independents. Of course that might be easier said than done- sure isn't happening in New Jersey and Virginia right now.
If you look at this handy chart pollster.com keeps of party id among registered and likely voters, it's basically flat since January. Overall Democrats have a 38-31 advantage over Republicans, almost unchanged from the 39/32 spread exit polls showed nationally on election day in November.
So if there's no party id shift but Dems are polling poorly, what's going on? Two things:
1) Independents aren't reacting as well to Democrats now as they were a year or six months ago, which is not surprising. They'll be back with us this time next year if there's significant progress on the economy and if not they probably won't.
2) Republicans are getting hyper partisan. We are frequently finding approval ratings of less than 15% among them for Obama and some Governors and Senators in our state by state polling. It's usually not that low.
Given the fact that there hasn't been a major shift in the partisan landscape Democrats will be fine next year if they can get their folks out and get back to the break even point with independents. Of course that might be easier said than done- sure isn't happening in New Jersey and Virginia right now.
Perdue not rubbing off yet
I thought the most interesting thing in this month's Civitas poll was that despite Bev Perdue's remarkable unpopularity Democrats still lead on the generic legislative ballot 43-33, a spread that if it played out in real life I think could even increase the party's majorities in the House and Senate.
I don't think folks are real thrilled with how things are going in Raleigh, but legislative Republicans still come off as too extreme and spend too much time and overheated rhetoric on opposing bills that are well within the mainstream of public opinion in the state. They have not presented themselves as a viable alternative for most voters.
Now if things are really bad for the President and Democrats nationally, the GOP in the state can probably say whatever it wants and do well at the polls in 2010. But there have been cycles that were bad for Democrats nationally- 2004 is the most recent example- where they still stayed in control of the legislature due to Republicans having bad candidate recruitment, bad campaigns, and a bad message.
15 months out it looks like that could happen again.
I don't think folks are real thrilled with how things are going in Raleigh, but legislative Republicans still come off as too extreme and spend too much time and overheated rhetoric on opposing bills that are well within the mainstream of public opinion in the state. They have not presented themselves as a viable alternative for most voters.
Now if things are really bad for the President and Democrats nationally, the GOP in the state can probably say whatever it wants and do well at the polls in 2010. But there have been cycles that were bad for Democrats nationally- 2004 is the most recent example- where they still stayed in control of the legislature due to Republicans having bad candidate recruitment, bad campaigns, and a bad message.
15 months out it looks like that could happen again.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
More on Corzine and Obama
The poll we released yesterday showed that only 18% of New Jersey voters were more likely to vote for Jon Corzine because of Barack Obama campaigning for him, while 32% said they were less likely to do so.
On the surface that may seem like Obama's potential positive impact is limited. But our poll also found that Corzine was lagging with blacks and Hispanics, two groups Obama continues to be very popular with both in the state and nationally.
So a more pertinent way to look at Obama's impact may be to consider his impact on minority swing voters- those either undecided or open to changing their minds between now and the election.
Those folks make up about 10% of the electorate, and right now support Corzine only 34-28. At the same time they approve of Obama's job performance by a 73/12 margin and 33% of them say his help makes them more inclined to support Corzine with just 4% saying it makes them less likely to do so.
Obama's not coming to New Jersey to win over conservative Republicans- he's coming to both win over these folks and increase the quantity of them who head out to the polls. And it appears Corzine may be able to get at least some traction with these folks by playing the Obama card- although we'll have to see come October whether the President's popular enough that's something Corzine wants to splash on tv or target more specifically with direct mail.
On the surface that may seem like Obama's potential positive impact is limited. But our poll also found that Corzine was lagging with blacks and Hispanics, two groups Obama continues to be very popular with both in the state and nationally.
So a more pertinent way to look at Obama's impact may be to consider his impact on minority swing voters- those either undecided or open to changing their minds between now and the election.
Those folks make up about 10% of the electorate, and right now support Corzine only 34-28. At the same time they approve of Obama's job performance by a 73/12 margin and 33% of them say his help makes them more inclined to support Corzine with just 4% saying it makes them less likely to do so.
Obama's not coming to New Jersey to win over conservative Republicans- he's coming to both win over these folks and increase the quantity of them who head out to the polls. And it appears Corzine may be able to get at least some traction with these folks by playing the Obama card- although we'll have to see come October whether the President's popular enough that's something Corzine wants to splash on tv or target more specifically with direct mail.
Polling in Virginia
About a month ago we showed Barack Obama's approval down to 48% in Virginia. That was before his numbers started really declining in most national polls and at the time came as quite a surprise given the 52% he received there last November.
Then last week SurveyUSA released its monthly round of state level approval polling, and while they found him down everywhere it was particularly pronounced in Virginia, where he dropped all the way too 44%.
Both our poll and that SurveyUSA poll showed a party identification breakdown for the state of D+1, which I think is reasonable. Two polls don't make a firm conclusion, but is there any reason folks can think of why Obama would be doing worse in Virginia relative to his performance last year than other places?
A separate Virginia poll SUSA put out yesterday showed Bob McDonnell up 15 points on Creigh Deeds, but was criticized because those sampled reported having voted for John McCain by nine points, quite different than Obama's six point victory in the state last fall.
Although I doubt the electorate there this fall will be that Republican leaning, it is worth noting that we have found very little interest in the election from black and young voters who were so pivotal to Democratic success in the state last fall. So I would not be shocked if those who turn out this year split evenly or had some lean toward McCain last year. We're going to ask that on our poll of the state this weekend.
Speaking of which, we pretty much have the poll written but if anybody has interesting question ideas I'm open to them.
Then last week SurveyUSA released its monthly round of state level approval polling, and while they found him down everywhere it was particularly pronounced in Virginia, where he dropped all the way too 44%.
Both our poll and that SurveyUSA poll showed a party identification breakdown for the state of D+1, which I think is reasonable. Two polls don't make a firm conclusion, but is there any reason folks can think of why Obama would be doing worse in Virginia relative to his performance last year than other places?
A separate Virginia poll SUSA put out yesterday showed Bob McDonnell up 15 points on Creigh Deeds, but was criticized because those sampled reported having voted for John McCain by nine points, quite different than Obama's six point victory in the state last fall.
Although I doubt the electorate there this fall will be that Republican leaning, it is worth noting that we have found very little interest in the election from black and young voters who were so pivotal to Democratic success in the state last fall. So I would not be shocked if those who turn out this year split evenly or had some lean toward McCain last year. We're going to ask that on our poll of the state this weekend.
Speaking of which, we pretty much have the poll written but if anybody has interesting question ideas I'm open to them.
Politics of Sotomayor
Richard Burr's opposing the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor, and it's not going to do him any political damage.
There are a couple basic reasons for that. The first is that there's not a meaningful Hispanic vote in North Carolina yet. The second that is that most voters are paying little to no attention to the confirmation process- this is not exactly something that was going to show up in a tv ad (at least an effective one!) no matter how Burr voted.
The biggest reason though is he did what was expected- voted the conservative Republican Party line as he has on pretty much everything for the last four years. He's not going to get whacked for this issue more than he would on any other issue.
I don't think there's really any help or hurt for Republicans who oppose Sotomayor- that's just seen as the party line. But there may be some advantage in going outside the box and supporting her. Just look at Chris Christie in New Jersey- he said she should be confirmed and now has a 50-33 lead with Hispanics in our most recent poll even as 67% of them approve of Barack Obama's job performance. We'll see if that bump is real or temporary but either way it's an eye opener.
If Burr had supported Sotomayor he would have had good material for a mailer to suburban independents and Democrats showing that he was willing to be more than an obstructionist . But ultimately this is not going to play a role next year.
There are a couple basic reasons for that. The first is that there's not a meaningful Hispanic vote in North Carolina yet. The second that is that most voters are paying little to no attention to the confirmation process- this is not exactly something that was going to show up in a tv ad (at least an effective one!) no matter how Burr voted.
The biggest reason though is he did what was expected- voted the conservative Republican Party line as he has on pretty much everything for the last four years. He's not going to get whacked for this issue more than he would on any other issue.
I don't think there's really any help or hurt for Republicans who oppose Sotomayor- that's just seen as the party line. But there may be some advantage in going outside the box and supporting her. Just look at Chris Christie in New Jersey- he said she should be confirmed and now has a 50-33 lead with Hispanics in our most recent poll even as 67% of them approve of Barack Obama's job performance. We'll see if that bump is real or temporary but either way it's an eye opener.
If Burr had supported Sotomayor he would have had good material for a mailer to suburban independents and Democrats showing that he was willing to be more than an obstructionist . But ultimately this is not going to play a role next year.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
25 days later...the impact of Palin's resignation
Since Sarah Palin announced she was going to resign we've done two national polls and four state level ones that included questions about her...so what's the verdict?
She's not in any worse of a position now than she was before July 3rd, but she was already in a pretty bad position then if her goal is to be President.
In national surveys we conducted in May and June Palin's favorability with American voters averaged out to 43/50. In two polls conducted since she announced her resignation it's been 47/45. So there's been a slight improvement on that front.
In a hypothetical contest against Barack Obama she went from trailing 52-40 in June to 51-43 in July. That reduction in her margin against Obama probably reflects a decline in his popularity more than a gain in hers.
Her national numbers are where we have before and after comparisons from the resignation. In the state polls we just have to compare her performance against Obama to John McCain's.
-In North Carolina Obama beat McCain 50-49 and leads Palin 49-42 in a possible contest.
-In Louisiana McCain beat Obama 59-40, Palin leads 49-42 in the hypothetical.
-In Minnesota Obama won 54-44 and leads Palin 56-35 in a prospective match.
In that trio of states then Palin's running an average of ten points worse than McCain did. And that's probably what it comes down to- her popularity hasn't decreased since she resigned probably because most folks who were inclined to dislike her already did. But she still has a lot of ground to make up to even match McCain's performance at the polls last year and obviously that wasn't nearly good enough.
She's not in any worse of a position now than she was before July 3rd, but she was already in a pretty bad position then if her goal is to be President.
In national surveys we conducted in May and June Palin's favorability with American voters averaged out to 43/50. In two polls conducted since she announced her resignation it's been 47/45. So there's been a slight improvement on that front.
In a hypothetical contest against Barack Obama she went from trailing 52-40 in June to 51-43 in July. That reduction in her margin against Obama probably reflects a decline in his popularity more than a gain in hers.
Her national numbers are where we have before and after comparisons from the resignation. In the state polls we just have to compare her performance against Obama to John McCain's.
-In North Carolina Obama beat McCain 50-49 and leads Palin 49-42 in a possible contest.
-In Louisiana McCain beat Obama 59-40, Palin leads 49-42 in the hypothetical.
-In Minnesota Obama won 54-44 and leads Palin 56-35 in a prospective match.
In that trio of states then Palin's running an average of ten points worse than McCain did. And that's probably what it comes down to- her popularity hasn't decreased since she resigned probably because most folks who were inclined to dislike her already did. But she still has a lot of ground to make up to even match McCain's performance at the polls last year and obviously that wasn't nearly good enough.
Perdue and Obama
Remember the constant drama last year about whether Bev Perdue was going to want to appear with Barack Obama on various campaign visits? I think it's safe to say any question about that has passed.
Consider these figures:
-83% of the North Carolinians who approve of Bev Perdue's performance also approve of Obama's.
-Only 42% of the ones who approve of Obama's performance also approve of Perdue's.
In other words Perdue has a whole lot more to gain from being seen with Obama at this point than vice versa. As she tries to rebuild her public support the folks who like Obama but not her are a pretty good place to start. 72% of them are Democrats, 36% are black, 59% are women, 80% are either liberals or moderates. All of those are groups Perdue cleaned up with at the polls but has lost support from since she took office...she'll need their support not just to get reelected but also to generate any sort of momentum for her policy agenda.
I don't think anyone foresaw the day where a black President from Chicago would have an approval rating twice as good in North Carolina as a white Governor from down east!
Consider these figures:
-83% of the North Carolinians who approve of Bev Perdue's performance also approve of Obama's.
-Only 42% of the ones who approve of Obama's performance also approve of Perdue's.
In other words Perdue has a whole lot more to gain from being seen with Obama at this point than vice versa. As she tries to rebuild her public support the folks who like Obama but not her are a pretty good place to start. 72% of them are Democrats, 36% are black, 59% are women, 80% are either liberals or moderates. All of those are groups Perdue cleaned up with at the polls but has lost support from since she took office...she'll need their support not just to get reelected but also to generate any sort of momentum for her policy agenda.
I don't think anyone foresaw the day where a black President from Chicago would have an approval rating twice as good in North Carolina as a white Governor from down east!
Ventures in Social Media
You can now follow us on Twitter and join our Facebook group.
Why should you? The Twitter account in particular might contain teases of poll results before they come out to a greater extent than we currently do on the blog and if you're already on twitter you'll see content quicker. And we'll be using both venues not just to take suggestions for where we should poll in certain weeks but also to do more in terms of soliciting ideas for individual questions on polls.
So join up!
Why should you? The Twitter account in particular might contain teases of poll results before they come out to a greater extent than we currently do on the blog and if you're already on twitter you'll see content quicker. And we'll be using both venues not just to take suggestions for where we should poll in certain weeks but also to do more in terms of soliciting ideas for individual questions on polls.
So join up!
Obama and Palin in New Jersey
51% of New Jersey voters say that Barack Obama coming to campaign for Jon Corzine had no impact on their choice for Governor, while only 38% say that Sarah Palin coming to campaign for Chris Christie would have no effect. When's the last time that six months into the term of a new administration the losing Vice Presidential candidate was more polarizing than the sitting President?
Overall voters in the state don't seem too interested in hearing from major national political figures about who they should support for Governor. Although Obama maintains a 53% approval rating in the state, the same as a month ago, only 18% of respondents say that his campaigning for Corzine made them more likely to support the Governor for reelection. 32% said his appearance made them less likely to do so.
Christie's decision not to have Palin in to campaign for him appears to be a prudent one. 42% of respondents said her appearance would make them less likely to vote for Christie with only 19% saying it would make them more likely to do so.
Here's where the Palin numbers are a lot more pertinent than the Obama ones though: only 2% of the people who said the Obama visit made them less inclined to vote for Corzine support him anyway. But among the people who said that a Palin visit would make them less likely to vote for Christie 25% were currently planning to support him. He would have a lot to lose with his moderate and Democratic supporters from a Palin appearance and little to gain since he already has the GOP base lined up behind him.
On another note New Jersey's Senators continue to be pretty unpopular with Frank Lautenberg's approval rating at 40% and Robert Menendez's at 29%.
Full results here
Overall voters in the state don't seem too interested in hearing from major national political figures about who they should support for Governor. Although Obama maintains a 53% approval rating in the state, the same as a month ago, only 18% of respondents say that his campaigning for Corzine made them more likely to support the Governor for reelection. 32% said his appearance made them less likely to do so.
Christie's decision not to have Palin in to campaign for him appears to be a prudent one. 42% of respondents said her appearance would make them less likely to vote for Christie with only 19% saying it would make them more likely to do so.
Here's where the Palin numbers are a lot more pertinent than the Obama ones though: only 2% of the people who said the Obama visit made them less inclined to vote for Corzine support him anyway. But among the people who said that a Palin visit would make them less likely to vote for Christie 25% were currently planning to support him. He would have a lot to lose with his moderate and Democratic supporters from a Palin appearance and little to gain since he already has the GOP base lined up behind him.
On another note New Jersey's Senators continue to be pretty unpopular with Frank Lautenberg's approval rating at 40% and Robert Menendez's at 29%.
Full results here
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Gender not doing Perdue any favors
Bev Perdue may be North Carolina's first female Governor, but that's not getting her any sympathy from her fellow women as her approval rating continues on a downward spiral.
An average of PPP's last three monthly approval polls actually finds her less popular among women than men. On average 28% of women have approved of her job performance, with 53% disapproving. The numbers have been slightly better with men, as 32% approve to 52% disapproving.
For the sake of comparison, Kay Hagan is much more popular among women than men. 33% of women approve of the job she's doing while only 24% disapprove, compared to 41% of men disapproving and only 31% approving.
Female politicians, and especially Democratic female politicians, tend to be more popular with women than men. But Perdue is breaking the trend.
An average of PPP's last three monthly approval polls actually finds her less popular among women than men. On average 28% of women have approved of her job performance, with 53% disapproving. The numbers have been slightly better with men, as 32% approve to 52% disapproving.
For the sake of comparison, Kay Hagan is much more popular among women than men. 33% of women approve of the job she's doing while only 24% disapprove, compared to 41% of men disapproving and only 31% approving.
Female politicians, and especially Democratic female politicians, tend to be more popular with women than men. But Perdue is breaking the trend.
What Conservative Dems in NC are thinking about Obama
Conservative Democrats might be the most powerful group of voters in North Carolina. When they decide to stick with the party- like they did for the most part last fall- Democrats win up and down the ballot in North Carolina. When a lot of them cross over and vote Republican, as has been the case particularly in many federal races over the last 30+ years, their support allows GOP candidates to overcome the party's large registration gap in the state.
So six months into a new administration and on the dawn of what seems likely to be another hotly contested Senate election in the state, what is this important bloc thinking about things?
They're giving the President pretty good reviews- a 64% approval rating with 29% disapproving.
The economy has a lot to do with that. Many socially conservative Democrats in the state who might usually have voted Republican because their values are at odds with national Democrats stuck with Obama last fall because their overwhelming concern was getting the economy turned around. 50% of conservative Democrats still say the economy is their top issue and that's a good thing for Obama because among the 14% who say it's moral and family values his approval is only 27%.
Looking at it from another angle, only 21% of conservative Dems think that gays should be able to serve openly in the military. But they still like Obama anyway. His ability to hold onto those folks is going to be predicated on getting the economy turned around though, because if he can't produce results there his divergent views from them on social issues might become a bigger problem.
Tomorrow we'll look at where Richard Burr is in terms of getting the crossover support he needs from this group for reelection.
So six months into a new administration and on the dawn of what seems likely to be another hotly contested Senate election in the state, what is this important bloc thinking about things?
They're giving the President pretty good reviews- a 64% approval rating with 29% disapproving.
The economy has a lot to do with that. Many socially conservative Democrats in the state who might usually have voted Republican because their values are at odds with national Democrats stuck with Obama last fall because their overwhelming concern was getting the economy turned around. 50% of conservative Democrats still say the economy is their top issue and that's a good thing for Obama because among the 14% who say it's moral and family values his approval is only 27%.
Looking at it from another angle, only 21% of conservative Dems think that gays should be able to serve openly in the military. But they still like Obama anyway. His ability to hold onto those folks is going to be predicated on getting the economy turned around though, because if he can't produce results there his divergent views from them on social issues might become a bigger problem.
Tomorrow we'll look at where Richard Burr is in terms of getting the crossover support he needs from this group for reelection.
Christie up 14
PPP's newest look at the New Jersey contest for Governor finds Chris Christie leading Jon Corzine 50-36. That 14 point margin is up from 10 in our June survey.
Christie continues to hold a commanding lead with independents, 54-26, and is receiving 86% of the Republican vote while holding Corzine to just 64% of the Democrats.
Negative advertising against Christie does not seem to be having any effect on voter perceptions of him. 42% have a favorable opinion of him with 32% holding an unfavorable one, numbers virtually unchanged from a 43/33 spread a month ago. Corzine's numbers are pretty much the same as well with 56% of the electorate viewing him negatively and 33% positively after those numbers were 56 and 36 in June.
If there's a silver lining for Corzine it's that 14% of voters are undecided and beyond that 25% of folks currently preferring either Christie or Corzine say that they're open to changing their minds. That leaves Christie with a 37-27 lead among voters who say their minds are completely made up and 36% at least somewhat persuadable. 47% of the folks who fall into that group are Democrats while just 26% are Republicans so if Corzine can convince his base voters to come home the race will likely tighten up over the last three months.
Corzine's biggest problem right now might be lacking support from minority voters. He's up only 64-20 with black voters, well below the usual 80% on up that Democratic candidates win in that demographics, and he's actually trailing 50-33 among Hispanics. Christie's public statement of support for the confirmation of Sonia Sotomayor may be doing him some good.
Corzine's weakness with those groups may lead some to think we got a conservative leaning sample of blacks and Hispanics, but Barack Obama's approval rating is 92% with the blacks we polled and among the Hispanics it was 67%. He has some work to do with those groups to get reelected this fall.
Given his remarkable unpopularity with independents, Corzine's going to need to move that 64% of the Democratic vote he's getting right now closer to the 90% range if he's going to get reelected. For now Chris Christie has to like where he's standing.
Full results here
Christie continues to hold a commanding lead with independents, 54-26, and is receiving 86% of the Republican vote while holding Corzine to just 64% of the Democrats.
Negative advertising against Christie does not seem to be having any effect on voter perceptions of him. 42% have a favorable opinion of him with 32% holding an unfavorable one, numbers virtually unchanged from a 43/33 spread a month ago. Corzine's numbers are pretty much the same as well with 56% of the electorate viewing him negatively and 33% positively after those numbers were 56 and 36 in June.
If there's a silver lining for Corzine it's that 14% of voters are undecided and beyond that 25% of folks currently preferring either Christie or Corzine say that they're open to changing their minds. That leaves Christie with a 37-27 lead among voters who say their minds are completely made up and 36% at least somewhat persuadable. 47% of the folks who fall into that group are Democrats while just 26% are Republicans so if Corzine can convince his base voters to come home the race will likely tighten up over the last three months.
Corzine's biggest problem right now might be lacking support from minority voters. He's up only 64-20 with black voters, well below the usual 80% on up that Democratic candidates win in that demographics, and he's actually trailing 50-33 among Hispanics. Christie's public statement of support for the confirmation of Sonia Sotomayor may be doing him some good.
Corzine's weakness with those groups may lead some to think we got a conservative leaning sample of blacks and Hispanics, but Barack Obama's approval rating is 92% with the blacks we polled and among the Hispanics it was 67%. He has some work to do with those groups to get reelected this fall.
Given his remarkable unpopularity with independents, Corzine's going to need to move that 64% of the Democratic vote he's getting right now closer to the 90% range if he's going to get reelected. For now Chris Christie has to like where he's standing.
Full results here
Charlotte Polling
Jim Morrill reports on dueling polls between Anthony Foxx and John Lassiter in Charlotte.
The Cornerstone Solutions poll showing Lassiter with a 16 point lead is clearly not rooted in reality. It's not clear to me that this group has done any public polling before and they may not have mastered the concept of weighting yet: in a city where 33% of the population is black we would expect the African American share of the electorate in a municipal election to fall somewhere in the 27-33% range rather than the 14% cited in this poll.
Simply taking their data and reweighting it for an electorate that is 65% white, 30% black, and 5% other you would find Lassiter with a five point lead, well within the margin of error.
And that of course doesn't take into account the highly unlikely finding in the poll that Foxx is earning just 41% of the Democratic vote while Lassiter has already locked up 79% of the Republican vote.
I see a lot of bad polls, but I think this is the worst one I've seen in a long time.
Full disclosure, we placed robocalls for Foxx during his reelection campaign. But if a Democratic oriented group with no track record put out a shoddy poll showing him with a 16 point lead I'd say the same thing.
The Cornerstone Solutions poll showing Lassiter with a 16 point lead is clearly not rooted in reality. It's not clear to me that this group has done any public polling before and they may not have mastered the concept of weighting yet: in a city where 33% of the population is black we would expect the African American share of the electorate in a municipal election to fall somewhere in the 27-33% range rather than the 14% cited in this poll.
Simply taking their data and reweighting it for an electorate that is 65% white, 30% black, and 5% other you would find Lassiter with a five point lead, well within the margin of error.
And that of course doesn't take into account the highly unlikely finding in the poll that Foxx is earning just 41% of the Democratic vote while Lassiter has already locked up 79% of the Republican vote.
I see a lot of bad polls, but I think this is the worst one I've seen in a long time.
Full disclosure, we placed robocalls for Foxx during his reelection campaign. But if a Democratic oriented group with no track record put out a shoddy poll showing him with a 16 point lead I'd say the same thing.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Bunning retirement good news for Republicans
Jim Bunning's retirement is intuitively good news for Republicans but our polling data backs it up too.
In April we found that:
-Jack Conway led Bunning 42-33 but Trey Grayson only 37-33
-Dan Mongiardo led Bunning 43-36 but trailed Grayson 40-36
So the race goes from one that Democrats almost certainly would have won to one that will start out as a tossup.
In April we found that:
-Jack Conway led Bunning 42-33 but Trey Grayson only 37-33
-Dan Mongiardo led Bunning 43-36 but trailed Grayson 40-36
So the race goes from one that Democrats almost certainly would have won to one that will start out as a tossup.
The money number in New Jersey
64
That's the percentage of the Democratic vote Jon Corzine is getting against Chris Christie in the poll we'll be releasing tomorrow.
That cuts both ways. It shows how much trouble the Governor is having stirring the party base in advance of this fall's election. But it means he also has a lot of room to grow if he can convince them to come home by November.
That's been the story of many a New Jersey election in recent years- good early polling for Republicans that turns to defeat as Democrats get on the same page- we'll see if Corzine can keep that pattern or if Christie will manage to break the trend.
That's the percentage of the Democratic vote Jon Corzine is getting against Chris Christie in the poll we'll be releasing tomorrow.
That cuts both ways. It shows how much trouble the Governor is having stirring the party base in advance of this fall's election. But it means he also has a lot of room to grow if he can convince them to come home by November.
That's been the story of many a New Jersey election in recent years- good early polling for Republicans that turns to defeat as Democrats get on the same page- we'll see if Corzine can keep that pattern or if Christie will manage to break the trend.
Health Care not a top concern for North Carolinians
Health care may be dominating the debate in Washington right now, but the recent prominence of the issue has not moved it too far up the list of North Carolinians' top issues in recent months.
Right now 8% of voters say that health care is their top concern. In July of 2008 it was 5%. In January of this year it was 4% and in April it was 9%.
The top three issues continue to be the economy and jobs at 48%, moral and family values at 14%, and education at 11%.
Among the voters who do list health care as their paramount concern, there is a lot of support for Barack Obama. 87% of those folks approve of his job performance, compared to a 49% approval rating overall.
Obama's visit this week may be an indicator that folks in DC are looking to North Carolina as a battleground in this fight, but the extent to which the issue is really grabbing the attention of the broader public and not just the usual political junkies is pretty unclear.
Right now 8% of voters say that health care is their top concern. In July of 2008 it was 5%. In January of this year it was 4% and in April it was 9%.
The top three issues continue to be the economy and jobs at 48%, moral and family values at 14%, and education at 11%.
Among the voters who do list health care as their paramount concern, there is a lot of support for Barack Obama. 87% of those folks approve of his job performance, compared to a 49% approval rating overall.
Obama's visit this week may be an indicator that folks in DC are looking to North Carolina as a battleground in this fight, but the extent to which the issue is really grabbing the attention of the broader public and not just the usual political junkies is pretty unclear.
A different way of looking at poll demographics
We all know that looking at the party breakdown of a state's voters isn't necessarily the best way to figure out how inclined it is to vote Democratic or Republican in a Presidential election. For instance Louisiana and West Virginia are Democratic states as far as party identification goes, but they're not likely to vote for a Democratic Presidential candidate any time soon. Virginia and Alabama are both pretty evenly divided on the party id front, but John McCain won a landslide victory in the latter while Barack Obama took a closer but still solid one in the former.
This chart shows the states we've polled in the last few months from most Democratic to least Democratic, along with the 2008 results:
As you can see, not a lot of correlation. So if party ID isn't the best barometer for telling how inclined a state is to vote Democratic or Republican for President, what is?
I think the percentage of voters in a state who identify as conservatives is a pretty good start. Looking at these ten states, there's not an entirely linear relationship between the proportion of voters who describe themselves as conservatives and how they voted last fall, but it certainly comes a lot closer than using the party id measure:
Two closing thoughts:
-People frequently bash poll results they don't like by criticizing the party id breakdown, but it might actually be more relevant to take a closer look at the ideological breakdown.
-What other measures of a state's electorate do you think can better predict Presidential voting patterns than party id breakdowns?
This chart shows the states we've polled in the last few months from most Democratic to least Democratic, along with the 2008 results:
| State | Party ID | 2008 Results |
| | D+15 | McCain +13 |
| | D+15 | Obama +25 |
| | D+15 | Obama +4 |
| | D+14 | Obama +1 |
| | D+13 | Obama +15 |
| | D+10 | Obama +14 |
| | D+8 | McCain +19 |
| | D+7 | Obama +10 |
| | D+1 | Obama +6 |
| | R+3 | McCain +21 |
As you can see, not a lot of correlation. So if party ID isn't the best barometer for telling how inclined a state is to vote Democratic or Republican for President, what is?
I think the percentage of voters in a state who identify as conservatives is a pretty good start. Looking at these ten states, there's not an entirely linear relationship between the proportion of voters who describe themselves as conservatives and how they voted last fall, but it certainly comes a lot closer than using the party id measure:
| State | % of Conservatives | 2008 Results |
| | 50 | McCain +19 |
| | 49 | McCain +21 |
| | 43 | McCain +13 |
| | 39 | Obama +1 |
| | 39 | Obama +10 |
| | 38 | Obama +6 |
| | 35 | Obama +15 |
| | 35 | Obama +10 |
| | 34 | Obama +4 |
| | 28 | Obama +13 |
Two closing thoughts:
-People frequently bash poll results they don't like by criticizing the party id breakdown, but it might actually be more relevant to take a closer look at the ideological breakdown.
-What other measures of a state's electorate do you think can better predict Presidential voting patterns than party id breakdowns?
Friday, July 24, 2009
Coming next week
It's New Jersey week at PPP. We will of course look at the horse race for Governor, as well as approval ratings for the state's Senators and the President.
We also asked about the potential impact of Barack Obama and Sarah Palin coming to the state to campaign for their party's gubernatorial candidates: voters aren't all that interested in hearing from either of them about New Jersey politics.
Stay tuned starting Tuesday...then we'll have Virginia the week after that.
We also asked about the potential impact of Barack Obama and Sarah Palin coming to the state to campaign for their party's gubernatorial candidates: voters aren't all that interested in hearing from either of them about New Jersey politics.
Stay tuned starting Tuesday...then we'll have Virginia the week after that.
Why liberals never get what they want
Democrats have control of the White House and both branches of Congress, but progressive voters still aren't seeing much of what they want policy wise put into action. Why is that?
Part of it is the inertia of Washington, but another part is that the political parties just don't have to fight over liberal voters the way they do moderates and conservatives.
Take our last national poll as an example- 82% of liberals are Democrats, 11% are independents, and 7% are Republicans. Not a lot of variety there.
Moderates are a lot more split. 50% are Democrats, 28% are independents, and 22% are Republicans.
Conservatives are more one sided than moderates, but a lot less so than liberals. 63% are Republicans, 22% are independents, and 15% are Democrats.
Looking at these numbers, you can see why Democratic leaders sometimes seem willing to take liberal voters for granted while trying harder to curry favor with moderates and conservatives. With no viable alternative to the Democrats for liberal voters in the current political system, party leaders can play to the middle or right without much risk.
Part of it is the inertia of Washington, but another part is that the political parties just don't have to fight over liberal voters the way they do moderates and conservatives.
Take our last national poll as an example- 82% of liberals are Democrats, 11% are independents, and 7% are Republicans. Not a lot of variety there.
Moderates are a lot more split. 50% are Democrats, 28% are independents, and 22% are Republicans.
Conservatives are more one sided than moderates, but a lot less so than liberals. 63% are Republicans, 22% are independents, and 15% are Democrats.
Looking at these numbers, you can see why Democratic leaders sometimes seem willing to take liberal voters for granted while trying harder to curry favor with moderates and conservatives. With no viable alternative to the Democrats for liberal voters in the current political system, party leaders can play to the middle or right without much risk.
The states where Obama's doing better and why
So far in 2009 PPP has polled on Barack Obama's approval rating in 16 states. In four of them, his approval is more than three points greater than the percentage of the vote he earned at the polls in November. Every one of them is a southern state he lost by a healthy margin: Arkansas , Louisiana , Alabama , and Kentucky
It's occurring largely among white Democrats:
I think most analysts' first instinct in discussing how poorly Obama did with white Democrats in these states would be to blame it on racism, but the fact that his approval ratings are now at least six points better than his share of the vote with that demographic leads me to consider another possible conclusion: maybe those voters just really liked John McCain. Even stripping away the races of the two candidates, it's not a stretch that to conservative white Democrats in SEC country McCain's profile would be more appealing than Obama's.
We can't authoritatively solve the question of whether racism was the major factor for these voters or not, but we probably can conclude that with a group of voters that was clearly skeptical of him last fall Obama has won over some converts. Certainly not enough to put these states in the Democratic column in 2012 or any time soon, but perhaps enough to keep Obama from being quite as much of a drag on Democratic candidates in these places as GOP strategists might hope he would be.
It's occurring largely among white Democrats:
| State | Obama Approval | Obama White Democratic Vote in 11-08 | Obama White Democratic Approval |
| | 45 | 47 | 72 |
| | 47 | 68 | 74 |
| | 46 | 62 | 69 |
| | 44 | 38 | 51 |
I think most analysts' first instinct in discussing how poorly Obama did with white Democrats in these states would be to blame it on racism, but the fact that his approval ratings are now at least six points better than his share of the vote with that demographic leads me to consider another possible conclusion: maybe those voters just really liked John McCain. Even stripping away the races of the two candidates, it's not a stretch that to conservative white Democrats in SEC country McCain's profile would be more appealing than Obama's.
We can't authoritatively solve the question of whether racism was the major factor for these voters or not, but we probably can conclude that with a group of voters that was clearly skeptical of him last fall Obama has won over some converts. Certainly not enough to put these states in the Democratic column in 2012 or any time soon, but perhaps enough to keep Obama from being quite as much of a drag on Democratic candidates in these places as GOP strategists might hope he would be.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Is McCrory the best GOP hope?
Today Civitas released numbers showing that Pat McCrory would beat Bev Perdue 46-32 in a possible rematch. That's really a no brainer given the Governor's approval ratings, but the bigger takeaway for me from the poll is that McCrory's numbers are pretty underwhelming.
McCrory got 47% of the vote last fall but despite Perdue's remarkable unpopularity he doesn't improve on that at all in this poll. McCrory got good reviews as a candidate last fall but perhaps his stronger than expected performance had more to do with the eventual winner's campaign being underwhelming than anything having to do with himself. I almost think McCrory's standing in this poll is similar to that of a generic Republican- would a Fred Smith, Phil Berger, or Sue Myrick necessarily have polled any worse? I think McCrory's Gubernatorial campaign was pretty overrated.
The overall situation surrounding Perdue reminds me a lot of the Washington Governor's race and Christine Gregoire four years ago. Gregoire just barely snuck into office after a much closer than expected challenge from Republican Dino Rossi. The early part of her term was rocky- in May 2005 her approval rating was just 34%, ranking her 47th out of 50 for popularity in SurveyUSA's tracking for that month.
After Rossi's tight defeat the party automatically went back to him for a second go around in 2008 and despite Gregoire's first year difficulties she dispatched him by a much more lopsided six point margin in the rematch.
I have no doubt Bev Perdue would lose if there was an election today. But there isn't, three and a half years is a lifetime in politics for things to shift back in her direction, and these numbers don't make McCrory look all that impressive either. Folks gleefully declaring Perdue a one term Governor based on her approval rating six months in might be right, but I still think there's a better than even chance they're wrong.
McCrory got 47% of the vote last fall but despite Perdue's remarkable unpopularity he doesn't improve on that at all in this poll. McCrory got good reviews as a candidate last fall but perhaps his stronger than expected performance had more to do with the eventual winner's campaign being underwhelming than anything having to do with himself. I almost think McCrory's standing in this poll is similar to that of a generic Republican- would a Fred Smith, Phil Berger, or Sue Myrick necessarily have polled any worse? I think McCrory's Gubernatorial campaign was pretty overrated.
The overall situation surrounding Perdue reminds me a lot of the Washington Governor's race and Christine Gregoire four years ago. Gregoire just barely snuck into office after a much closer than expected challenge from Republican Dino Rossi. The early part of her term was rocky- in May 2005 her approval rating was just 34%, ranking her 47th out of 50 for popularity in SurveyUSA's tracking for that month.
After Rossi's tight defeat the party automatically went back to him for a second go around in 2008 and despite Gregoire's first year difficulties she dispatched him by a much more lopsided six point margin in the rematch.
I have no doubt Bev Perdue would lose if there was an election today. But there isn't, three and a half years is a lifetime in politics for things to shift back in her direction, and these numbers don't make McCrory look all that impressive either. Folks gleefully declaring Perdue a one term Governor based on her approval rating six months in might be right, but I still think there's a better than even chance they're wrong.
Where Obama's losing support
Barack Obama's approval rating peaked in our national polling at 55% in May and is now down to 50%.
A deeper analysis of where shifts in his approval are occurring finds that he's not having any trouble with his base. His numbers with conservative Democrats have actually slightly improved over the last two months to a 72% approval rating, an indication that while the health care battle may be making some Congressmen on the right side of his party uneasy it's not affecting Obama's popularity with that group of voters. He's a couple points up with liberal Democrats and three points down with moderates, trends that basically cancel each other out.
His main drop has been with his moderate Republican support. He was doing decently well with that group of voters earlier in his term, sporting a 38% approval rating. That's now been cut in half to 19%. He's also seen some decline with moderate independents. Although he is still at a solid 55%, that's down from 63% in May. Our polling finds that those voters' top concern is overwhelmingly the economy and they'll support whatever party they find making it better. His drop there may be a reflection of growing impatience that the stimulus has not had a more immediately visible impact.
Here's the full data on his shifts over the last two months:
A deeper analysis of where shifts in his approval are occurring finds that he's not having any trouble with his base. His numbers with conservative Democrats have actually slightly improved over the last two months to a 72% approval rating, an indication that while the health care battle may be making some Congressmen on the right side of his party uneasy it's not affecting Obama's popularity with that group of voters. He's a couple points up with liberal Democrats and three points down with moderates, trends that basically cancel each other out.
His main drop has been with his moderate Republican support. He was doing decently well with that group of voters earlier in his term, sporting a 38% approval rating. That's now been cut in half to 19%. He's also seen some decline with moderate independents. Although he is still at a solid 55%, that's down from 63% in May. Our polling finds that those voters' top concern is overwhelmingly the economy and they'll support whatever party they find making it better. His drop there may be a reflection of growing impatience that the stimulus has not had a more immediately visible impact.
Here's the full data on his shifts over the last two months:
| Group | Obama Approval in May | Obama Approval in July | Change |
| Moderate Republicans | 38 | 19 | -19 |
| Moderate Independents | 63 | 55 | -8 |
| Conservative Republicans | 12 | 6 | -6 |
| Moderate Democrats | 85 | 82 | -3 |
| Conservative Independents | 30 | 28 | -2 |
| Liberal Democrats | 89 | 91 | +2 |
| Conservative Democrats | 67 | 72 | +5 |
Question of the Day
Are the birthers nonpartisan?
Here's an e-mail we got yesterday:
From: Rebecca Sage [mailto:rasage@verizon.net]
Sent: Wed 7/22/2009 2:54 PM
To: PPP Information
Subject: FYI Jindal is NOT a natural born citizen
FYI. Jindal cannot run for President. He is not a natural born citizen.
Here's an e-mail we got yesterday:
From: Rebecca Sage [mailto:rasage@verizon.net]
Sent: Wed 7/22/2009 2:54 PM
To: PPP Information
Subject: FYI Jindal is NOT a natural born citizen
FYI. Jindal cannot run for President. He is not a natural born citizen.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Perdue's drop by voter group
In four months Bev Perdue's approval spread has gone from 44/35 to 25/55. I know conservatives want to claim it's all because she went public supporting a tax increase but her biggest drop actually came from April to May before she did that, so while I certainly wouldn't dispute that's part of what's going on I don't think it's the biggest thing.
Perdue's biggest declines in approval have come among moderate Democrats (a 30% drop) and liberal Democrats (a 24% drop). Those are the two party/ideology groups most likely to be opposed to huge spending cuts and most open to tax increases so there has to be something more to what's going on here.
I offered some theories last week, but here's my big question: why is Bev Perdue so unpopular, especially with her base? Is it lack of overall vision, failure to support progressive legislation, not being visible enough? We're interested in doing a poll digging deeper about why Perdue is where she is and any ideas you have about why that can be translated into coherent poll questions are very welcome.
This chart shows her overall approval decline by party/ideology group comparing March and July:
Perdue's biggest declines in approval have come among moderate Democrats (a 30% drop) and liberal Democrats (a 24% drop). Those are the two party/ideology groups most likely to be opposed to huge spending cuts and most open to tax increases so there has to be something more to what's going on here.
I offered some theories last week, but here's my big question: why is Bev Perdue so unpopular, especially with her base? Is it lack of overall vision, failure to support progressive legislation, not being visible enough? We're interested in doing a poll digging deeper about why Perdue is where she is and any ideas you have about why that can be translated into coherent poll questions are very welcome.
This chart shows her overall approval decline by party/ideology group comparing March and July:
| Group | Perdue Approval in March | Perdue Approval in July | Change |
| Moderate Democrats | 68 | 38 | -30 |
| Liberal Democrats | 72 | 48 | -24 |
| Moderate Independents | 43 | 22 | -21 |
| Conservative Democrats | 50 | 29 | -21 |
| Moderate Republicans | 29 | 11 | -18 |
| Conservative Republicans | 13 | 8 | -5 |
| Conservative Independents | 17 | 17 | No Change |
Is Romney weak with conservatives?
Mitt Romney has had some great polling news lately- he was tied with Barack Obama nationally in a Rasmussen survey on Monday and a Gallup poll last week showed him with an early lead for the 2012 GOP nomination.
Our last two national polls are starting to show a trend that wouldn't bode too well for his chances of surviving the Republican primary contest though: he lags the other hopefuls in his popularity among conservative party voters.
Our poll this month showed 81% of conservative Republicans with a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin with 73% having a positive one about Mike Huckabee and 72% doing the same for Newt Gingrich. But for Romney the figure is just 58%.
That fits the same general trend as our June survey. Then 83% viewed Palin favorably to 79% for Huckabee, 77% for Gingrich, and 69% for Romney.
It's just two polls and we'll have to follow the trend to see if it continues, but Romney is well behind his fellow contenders in popularity among conservative Republicans, and obviously those are the voters who dominate GOP primary electorates.
Our last two national polls are starting to show a trend that wouldn't bode too well for his chances of surviving the Republican primary contest though: he lags the other hopefuls in his popularity among conservative party voters.
Our poll this month showed 81% of conservative Republicans with a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin with 73% having a positive one about Mike Huckabee and 72% doing the same for Newt Gingrich. But for Romney the figure is just 58%.
That fits the same general trend as our June survey. Then 83% viewed Palin favorably to 79% for Huckabee, 77% for Gingrich, and 69% for Romney.
It's just two polls and we'll have to follow the trend to see if it continues, but Romney is well behind his fellow contenders in popularity among conservative Republicans, and obviously those are the voters who dominate GOP primary electorates.
The Politics of the Budget Deal
Well I'll tell you I don't envy the task North Carolina legislators had in crafting a budget deal one little bit. That's a tough job. But if their goal was to put together a package that would do the least damage politically I don't think they accomplished it.
Our polling last month showed that when you ask voters straight up, 51% said the budget should be balanced solely by spending cuts while 32% said it should be a mixture of spending cuts and new taxes.
But when we asked voters about some specific tax proposals they were a lot more supportive. For instance 60% favored raising income taxes just on those who make more than $200,000. 53% supported a one dollar per pack increase in the cigarette tax and 60% supported a 5% surcharge on alcohol purchases.
There was public support for those things because they don't affect the average North Carolinian- most of us don't make more than 200k and most of us don't smoke.
Here's how I think most voters in the state would look at the budget crisis:
Other people's taxes raised>massive spending cuts>my taxes being raised
In the end of course we ended up with that least popular option- raising everyone's income taxes instead of focusing on the very rich and holding down the extent of the sin tax increases while increasing the sales taxes everyone has to pay.
I can't speak to whether that's the right or wrong way to balance the budget- but politically I think it's about the most unpopular way of dealing with the hole that the Legislature could have come up with.
Our polling last month showed that when you ask voters straight up, 51% said the budget should be balanced solely by spending cuts while 32% said it should be a mixture of spending cuts and new taxes.
But when we asked voters about some specific tax proposals they were a lot more supportive. For instance 60% favored raising income taxes just on those who make more than $200,000. 53% supported a one dollar per pack increase in the cigarette tax and 60% supported a 5% surcharge on alcohol purchases.
There was public support for those things because they don't affect the average North Carolinian- most of us don't make more than 200k and most of us don't smoke.
Here's how I think most voters in the state would look at the budget crisis:
Other people's taxes raised>massive spending cuts>my taxes being raised
In the end of course we ended up with that least popular option- raising everyone's income taxes instead of focusing on the very rich and holding down the extent of the sin tax increases while increasing the sales taxes everyone has to pay.
I can't speak to whether that's the right or wrong way to balance the budget- but politically I think it's about the most unpopular way of dealing with the hole that the Legislature could have come up with.
Jindal near tops for popularity
Bobby Jindal's approval rating with Louisiana voters is 55%, and while voters in the state don't want him to run for President in 2012 they'll vote for him if he does.
Jindal's popularity in the state ranks him third among 17 Governors PPP has polled on around the country so far in 2009, trailing only Arkansas' Mike Beebe and Delaware's Jack Markell. That's certainly a testament to his appeal, but it also says something about how unpopular Governors are right now that a 55% approval can put you in the 80th percentile.
80% of Republicans, 59% of independents, and 32% of Democrats give Jindal good reviews. That level of crossover support is pretty unusual in this highly polarized nation.
Despite (or maybe because of) his popularity most voters in the state wish Jindal would pass on a possible 2012 Presidential bid. Just 27% say they would like to see him run while 61% say he should not. That's a combination of his supporters wishing he would stay right where he is and his detractors not wanting him to rise any higher.
Nevertheless in a potential contest against Barack Obama, Jindal leads 54-40, including a 61-29 advantage among independents.
50% of Louisianans disapprove of Obama's job performance so far with just 44% rating him positively, no great surprise in a state that he lost by 20 points last November. Obama has the support of 74% of Democrats, 30% of independents, and 12% of Republicans. While 91% of African Americans think he's doing a good job, only 25% of whites do.
We also looked at Sarah Palin. 46% of voters have a positive opinion of her with 42% unfavorable, and she leads Obama 49-42 in a potential contest.
It's interesting in comparing how Palin and Jindal stack up against Obama that she does almost as well as Jindal among Democrats, but has leads smaller than his by ten points or more with Republicans and independents.
Finally, Mary Landrieu's reviews are split right down the middle, with 43% approving and 43% disapproving of her job performance.
Full results here
Jindal's popularity in the state ranks him third among 17 Governors PPP has polled on around the country so far in 2009, trailing only Arkansas' Mike Beebe and Delaware's Jack Markell. That's certainly a testament to his appeal, but it also says something about how unpopular Governors are right now that a 55% approval can put you in the 80th percentile.
80% of Republicans, 59% of independents, and 32% of Democrats give Jindal good reviews. That level of crossover support is pretty unusual in this highly polarized nation.
Despite (or maybe because of) his popularity most voters in the state wish Jindal would pass on a possible 2012 Presidential bid. Just 27% say they would like to see him run while 61% say he should not. That's a combination of his supporters wishing he would stay right where he is and his detractors not wanting him to rise any higher.
Nevertheless in a potential contest against Barack Obama, Jindal leads 54-40, including a 61-29 advantage among independents.
50% of Louisianans disapprove of Obama's job performance so far with just 44% rating him positively, no great surprise in a state that he lost by 20 points last November. Obama has the support of 74% of Democrats, 30% of independents, and 12% of Republicans. While 91% of African Americans think he's doing a good job, only 25% of whites do.
We also looked at Sarah Palin. 46% of voters have a positive opinion of her with 42% unfavorable, and she leads Obama 49-42 in a potential contest.
It's interesting in comparing how Palin and Jindal stack up against Obama that she does almost as well as Jindal among Democrats, but has leads smaller than his by ten points or more with Republicans and independents.
Finally, Mary Landrieu's reviews are split right down the middle, with 43% approving and 43% disapproving of her job performance.
Full results here
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Independents going Republican pretty universally
In the last month PPP has polled on 16 different actual or potential 2009 or 2010 contests for Governor and Senator around the country, and in 13 of those independent voters have favored the Republican candidate.
Part of that has to do with the decreasing number of Americans identifying as Republicans in recent years. While they're eschewing the party's label, they're still conservative and more often than not voting for the party's candidates. An analysis we did last week found more than three times as many conservatives as liberals in the independent ranks nationally, and that in some of the states we've polled recently that gap is as wide as 7:1.
Nevertheless Democrats last year, including President Obama, did quite well with independents. This early success the GOP is having with them looking toward 2012 does seem to indicate a certain level of support for more divided government moving forward, as well as some dissatisfaction with the President and Democrats in Congress.
Here are the numbers among independents for races we've polled recently:
Most immediately Bob McDonnell has a 54-33 lead over Creigh Deeds in Virginia and Chris Christie has a 60-26 one over Jon Corzine in New Jersey.
On our Louisiana poll today David Vitter led a generic Democrat 45-27 and Charlie Melancon 43-25.
On the North Carolina poll we released last week Richard Burr had a 38-28 lead with independents on the generic ballot, a 39-21 one over Cal Cunningham, and a 39-22 one over Kenneth Lewis.
Norm Coleman trailed two out of three potential Democratic opponents we pitted him against for Governor overall, but he still led all three with indies. It was 39-31 over Mark Dayton, 36-34 over RT Rybak, and 43-24 over Margaret Anderson Kelliher.
In Ohio Ted Strickland narrowly led John Kasich overall, but was down 54-33 with independents.
In Wisconsin Jim Doyle had a 55-30 deficit against Scott Walker and a 48-30 one against Mark Neumann.
The only Democrats breaking the trend were Jennifer Brunner and Lee Fisher in the Ohio Senate race, holding leads of nine and one points respectively, and Russ Feingold with a 45-38 lead over Paul Ryan.
Part of that has to do with the decreasing number of Americans identifying as Republicans in recent years. While they're eschewing the party's label, they're still conservative and more often than not voting for the party's candidates. An analysis we did last week found more than three times as many conservatives as liberals in the independent ranks nationally, and that in some of the states we've polled recently that gap is as wide as 7:1.
Nevertheless Democrats last year, including President Obama, did quite well with independents. This early success the GOP is having with them looking toward 2012 does seem to indicate a certain level of support for more divided government moving forward, as well as some dissatisfaction with the President and Democrats in Congress.
Here are the numbers among independents for races we've polled recently:
Most immediately Bob McDonnell has a 54-33 lead over Creigh Deeds in Virginia and Chris Christie has a 60-26 one over Jon Corzine in New Jersey.
On our Louisiana poll today David Vitter led a generic Democrat 45-27 and Charlie Melancon 43-25.
On the North Carolina poll we released last week Richard Burr had a 38-28 lead with independents on the generic ballot, a 39-21 one over Cal Cunningham, and a 39-22 one over Kenneth Lewis.
Norm Coleman trailed two out of three potential Democratic opponents we pitted him against for Governor overall, but he still led all three with indies. It was 39-31 over Mark Dayton, 36-34 over RT Rybak, and 43-24 over Margaret Anderson Kelliher.
In Ohio Ted Strickland narrowly led John Kasich overall, but was down 54-33 with independents.
In Wisconsin Jim Doyle had a 55-30 deficit against Scott Walker and a 48-30 one against Mark Neumann.
The only Democrats breaking the trend were Jennifer Brunner and Lee Fisher in the Ohio Senate race, holding leads of nine and one points respectively, and Russ Feingold with a 45-38 lead over Paul Ryan.
Assessing a Democratic primary
With the news this morning that Elaine Marshall is seriously considering a Senate run, somebody posed the question to me: wouldn't that be game over for the Democratic nomination?
That train of thought makes sense- you would expect somebody with more than a decade in statewide office to be able to easily dispatch a one term state senator (Cal Cunningham) and someone who has never served in any elected office (Kenneth Lewis).
But it's really not the case. When we polled it in March 43% of Democratic voters said they had a favorable opinion of Marshall while 50% said they had no opinion. She certainly has more name recognition than Lewis (70% no opinion in a May poll) and Cunningham (67% no opinion in a February poll), but none of them are very well known. Secretary of State just isn't a headline winning position.
Marshall would doubtless lead in early polling of a potential primary contest but probably not by a wide margin. The vast majority of voters would be making their decisions based on the campaigns the contenders ran, rather than starting out knowing who they're going to vote for based just on who the candidates are as is often the case when more high profile people are involved. At that point it comes down to who can raise the most money and spend it the most effectively, and it's not clear anyone out of the Marshall/Lewis/Cunningham trio has the inherent edge on that front.
At this point it is unlikely there is anyone who could decide to run for the Senate and clear the field. Last year a contested primary actually ended up working to Kay Hagan's benefit, and that may end up being the case again for whoever the Democrats choose next May- or maybe even June if a runoff is necessary as the field expands.
That train of thought makes sense- you would expect somebody with more than a decade in statewide office to be able to easily dispatch a one term state senator (Cal Cunningham) and someone who has never served in any elected office (Kenneth Lewis).
But it's really not the case. When we polled it in March 43% of Democratic voters said they had a favorable opinion of Marshall while 50% said they had no opinion. She certainly has more name recognition than Lewis (70% no opinion in a May poll) and Cunningham (67% no opinion in a February poll), but none of them are very well known. Secretary of State just isn't a headline winning position.
Marshall would doubtless lead in early polling of a potential primary contest but probably not by a wide margin. The vast majority of voters would be making their decisions based on the campaigns the contenders ran, rather than starting out knowing who they're going to vote for based just on who the candidates are as is often the case when more high profile people are involved. At that point it comes down to who can raise the most money and spend it the most effectively, and it's not clear anyone out of the Marshall/Lewis/Cunningham trio has the inherent edge on that front.
At this point it is unlikely there is anyone who could decide to run for the Senate and clear the field. Last year a contested primary actually ended up working to Kay Hagan's benefit, and that may end up being the case again for whoever the Democrats choose next May- or maybe even June if a runoff is necessary as the field expands.
Moderates Republicans and the GOP Field
For the second month in a row we found Sarah Palin as the most popular of the leading 2012 GOP hopefuls among moderate Republicans. 64% have a positive opinion of her compared to 57% for Newt Gingrich, 53% for Mike Huckabee, and 45% for Mitt Romney.
Those numbers are pretty low across the board though. By comparison, 82% of moderate Democrats approve of Barack Obama's job performance.
There aren't that many moderate Republicans left- just 27% of the party's voters and about 10% of the overall electorate- but there's no doubt their votes are going to be needed to have any chance of reclaiming the White House in 2012. The big question then becomes whether one of these four can get to the point where their popularity is 80+ with the moderate wing of the party, or whether it would take one of the dark horses to get to that point- and whether such a person could retain enough popularity with conservatives to win the nomination.
Those numbers are pretty low across the board though. By comparison, 82% of moderate Democrats approve of Barack Obama's job performance.
There aren't that many moderate Republicans left- just 27% of the party's voters and about 10% of the overall electorate- but there's no doubt their votes are going to be needed to have any chance of reclaiming the White House in 2012. The big question then becomes whether one of these four can get to the point where their popularity is 80+ with the moderate wing of the party, or whether it would take one of the dark horses to get to that point- and whether such a person could retain enough popularity with conservatives to win the nomination.
O my...
Here's something you don't really want as a Democratic polling company:
Rush Limbaugh gleefully reading excerpts off your blog about Barack Obama's approval rating.
But our numbers are straight, and sometimes that's going to be the result of it.
Rush Limbaugh gleefully reading excerpts off your blog about Barack Obama's approval rating.
But our numbers are straight, and sometimes that's going to be the result of it.
Vitter vulnerable? Depends
Is David Vitter vulnerable? Our newest survey attacks that question from a number of different angles and the overall answer seems to be 'maybe.'
Just 38% of voters in the state say Vitter deserves to be reelected with 47% saying it's time to give someone else a chance. That's partly a reflection on Vitter, and partly indicative of the general anti-incumbent mood across the country right now.
When you pit Vitter against a generic Democrat though, he leads 44-38. And when you test him specifically against potential opponent Charlie Melancon, that advantage rises to 44-32.
That 44% seems to be the magic number when it comes to Vitter right now. His approval rating is also 44%, with 36% disapproving and the percentage of voters with a favorable opinion of him is 44% as well, compared to 39% who view him negatively.
So he's definitely below the 50% mark considered safe for an incumbent, but he's not that far below it and at least initially voters still prefer him to letting the seat change parties.
One thing that does seem increasingly clear is that Vitter is not all that vulnerable to a primary opponent. Even on the measure where he does weakest- whether he deserves another term or not- 56% of Republicans say yes. And that number rises to 62% on his approval rating.
Most voters in the state- 42%- don't know enough about Melancon yet to have formed an opinion about him.
Vitter really is in a pretty similar situation to where Mary Landrieu found herself a couple years ago. She polled in the 40s in a lot of early surveys against John Kennedy, raising Republican hopes that she could be defeated. But she still ended up winning by a solid if not spectacular margin. Whether Democrats can better take advantage of the opening they appear to have here only time will tell.
Full results here
Just 38% of voters in the state say Vitter deserves to be reelected with 47% saying it's time to give someone else a chance. That's partly a reflection on Vitter, and partly indicative of the general anti-incumbent mood across the country right now.
When you pit Vitter against a generic Democrat though, he leads 44-38. And when you test him specifically against potential opponent Charlie Melancon, that advantage rises to 44-32.
That 44% seems to be the magic number when it comes to Vitter right now. His approval rating is also 44%, with 36% disapproving and the percentage of voters with a favorable opinion of him is 44% as well, compared to 39% who view him negatively.
So he's definitely below the 50% mark considered safe for an incumbent, but he's not that far below it and at least initially voters still prefer him to letting the seat change parties.
One thing that does seem increasingly clear is that Vitter is not all that vulnerable to a primary opponent. Even on the measure where he does weakest- whether he deserves another term or not- 56% of Republicans say yes. And that number rises to 62% on his approval rating.
Most voters in the state- 42%- don't know enough about Melancon yet to have formed an opinion about him.
Vitter really is in a pretty similar situation to where Mary Landrieu found herself a couple years ago. She polled in the 40s in a lot of early surveys against John Kennedy, raising Republican hopes that she could be defeated. But she still ended up winning by a solid if not spectacular margin. Whether Democrats can better take advantage of the opening they appear to have here only time will tell.
Full results here
Monday, July 20, 2009
Obama with Democrats by region
Last week a commenter asked me about Barack Obama's approval numbers among Democrats by region. Instinctively you would expect them to be at their worst in the south, but that is not the case.
He's at 87% there, followed by 85% in the midwest, and 81% in both the northeast and the west.
That doesn't necessarily surprise me. On this most recent poll a plurality of Democrats from the south were African Americans, and they are much more likely to be steady in their approval of Obama than white Democrats. Overall 79% of white Democrats nationally give Obama good marks, while 99% of black Democrats do.
We've also been more likely to find Obama's approval outperforming his share of the vote from last year in southern states. In Oklahoma, Kentucky, Alabama, and Arkansas we've found him running 4-8 points ahead of his ballot box performance, and tomorrow Louisiana goes on that list. At this point that quintet of states are the only ones where we find him doing more than a point better than he did in the fall.
Of course when you look at independents in the south it's quite a different story- just 42% approval. And among Republicans it's just 7%.
He's at 87% there, followed by 85% in the midwest, and 81% in both the northeast and the west.
That doesn't necessarily surprise me. On this most recent poll a plurality of Democrats from the south were African Americans, and they are much more likely to be steady in their approval of Obama than white Democrats. Overall 79% of white Democrats nationally give Obama good marks, while 99% of black Democrats do.
We've also been more likely to find Obama's approval outperforming his share of the vote from last year in southern states. In Oklahoma, Kentucky, Alabama, and Arkansas we've found him running 4-8 points ahead of his ballot box performance, and tomorrow Louisiana goes on that list. At this point that quintet of states are the only ones where we find him doing more than a point better than he did in the fall.
Of course when you look at independents in the south it's quite a different story- just 42% approval. And among Republicans it's just 7%.
Should Burr vote for Sotomayor?
One thing Richard Burr's going to have trouble with next year is producing examples of his ever pursuing an independent course from the Bush or Republican agenda. Jesse Helms excluded, North Carolinians tend to vote for centrists and Burr's actions and votes during his term in the Senate have been pretty universally conservative.
That's why I wonder if he should vote to confirm Sonia Sotomayor. There's no way she's going to get rejected anyway, and it would provide a high profile example he could tout to Democrats and independents next year as an example of his being cooperative with the President in some instances while opposing him in others. Obama's approval rating may be down but he's still a lot more popular in North Carolina than either of the state's Senators. Having examples to show he doesn't just serve in Washington to be an obstructionist would help Burr down the line. And while some Republicans would doubtless be antagonized by Burr voting to approve Sotomayor, there's really nowhere for them to go.
It will be interesting to see what he does.
That's why I wonder if he should vote to confirm Sonia Sotomayor. There's no way she's going to get rejected anyway, and it would provide a high profile example he could tout to Democrats and independents next year as an example of his being cooperative with the President in some instances while opposing him in others. Obama's approval rating may be down but he's still a lot more popular in North Carolina than either of the state's Senators. Having examples to show he doesn't just serve in Washington to be an obstructionist would help Burr down the line. And while some Republicans would doubtless be antagonized by Burr voting to approve Sotomayor, there's really nowhere for them to go.
It will be interesting to see what he does.
Obama continues to drop
PPP's monthly national survey shows Barack Obama's approval rating continuing to drop. It's now at 50% with 43% of voters disapproving, continuing a steady decline from 52% in June and 55% in May.
Compared to a month ago his numbers are largely unchanged with Democrats and independents but he continues to lose the little bipartisan appeal he had to begin with. His approval with Republicans is now 12%, down from 18% in June.
While he's continued to maintain a high level of popularity with African Americans and Hispanics, his approval with whites is now at 39%. That's four points below what exit polls showed him earning last November.
Obama continues to lead the top potential GOP hopefuls for 2012. He's up 48-42 on Mike Huckabee, 50-42 on Newt Gingrich, 51-43 on Sarah Palin, and 49-40 on Mitt Romney.
The six point lead over Huckabee is the first time in the four months we've been polling these match ups that Obama has shown an advantage against any of these candidates smaller than his popular vote victory over John McCain. It's also the fourth month in a row that Huckabee has fared the best of the Republicans possibilities.
The numbers from this poll also seem to indicate that Sarah Palin did not do herself any immediate damage with her decision to resign as Governor of Alaska. Her favorability spread of 47/45 is the best PPP has found it over the course of six surveys conducted in the last four months. Also, her eight point deficit against Obama is the first time it's been in single digits over the course of these monthly 2012 polls. She also continues to have easily the highest percentage of GOP voters holding a positive opinion of her.
The Republicans are doing better against Obama in these polls but even as his popularity has dipped nearly below 50% none of them are really within striking range of him. You have to wonder if the GOP's best hope in three years is going to be a fresh face rather than one of these folks who's already been consistently in the national spotlight. PPP numbers from Louisiana out Wednesday will show Bobby Jindal as one of the most popular Governors in the country- he wouldn't be the first person from his part of the country to be elected President after sputtering in his national debut.
Full results here.
Compared to a month ago his numbers are largely unchanged with Democrats and independents but he continues to lose the little bipartisan appeal he had to begin with. His approval with Republicans is now 12%, down from 18% in June.
While he's continued to maintain a high level of popularity with African Americans and Hispanics, his approval with whites is now at 39%. That's four points below what exit polls showed him earning last November.
Obama continues to lead the top potential GOP hopefuls for 2012. He's up 48-42 on Mike Huckabee, 50-42 on Newt Gingrich, 51-43 on Sarah Palin, and 49-40 on Mitt Romney.
The six point lead over Huckabee is the first time in the four months we've been polling these match ups that Obama has shown an advantage against any of these candidates smaller than his popular vote victory over John McCain. It's also the fourth month in a row that Huckabee has fared the best of the Republicans possibilities.
The numbers from this poll also seem to indicate that Sarah Palin did not do herself any immediate damage with her decision to resign as Governor of Alaska. Her favorability spread of 47/45 is the best PPP has found it over the course of six surveys conducted in the last four months. Also, her eight point deficit against Obama is the first time it's been in single digits over the course of these monthly 2012 polls. She also continues to have easily the highest percentage of GOP voters holding a positive opinion of her.
The Republicans are doing better against Obama in these polls but even as his popularity has dipped nearly below 50% none of them are really within striking range of him. You have to wonder if the GOP's best hope in three years is going to be a fresh face rather than one of these folks who's already been consistently in the national spotlight. PPP numbers from Louisiana out Wednesday will show Bobby Jindal as one of the most popular Governors in the country- he wouldn't be the first person from his part of the country to be elected President after sputtering in his national debut.
Full results here.
Friday, July 17, 2009
Politics of the Superintendent Battle
In ruling that June Atkinson has the authority to run the state's schools, Judge Robert Hobgood said it would take a constitutional amendment to let the Governor decides who's in charge.
Good luck with that.
It would be a challenge just to get a constitutional amendment on the ballot since it would require at least some support from Republican legislators who don't have any incentive to give Bev Perdue more power. But the even more uphill battle would come once it got on the ballot. When we asked voters around the state in February whether low profile Council of State positions like Superintendent and the Commissioner of Agriculture, Insurance, and Labor should be elected or appointed 65% supported keeping them as elected positions with just 22% saying they should be appointed.
That inherent opposition from voters means it would take a well funded campaign to change their minds and convince them to give up some of their power as citizens. It's hard to imagine anyone cares enough about this issue to put up the money for a thorough and well organized effort.
So a constitutional amendment more than likely isn't going to happen. Perdue can keep fighting it through the court system. But with her approval numbers what they are already, does she really want to be seen as spending her energy and political capital on an intergovernmental turf battle?
Good luck with that.
It would be a challenge just to get a constitutional amendment on the ballot since it would require at least some support from Republican legislators who don't have any incentive to give Bev Perdue more power. But the even more uphill battle would come once it got on the ballot. When we asked voters around the state in February whether low profile Council of State positions like Superintendent and the Commissioner of Agriculture, Insurance, and Labor should be elected or appointed 65% supported keeping them as elected positions with just 22% saying they should be appointed.
That inherent opposition from voters means it would take a well funded campaign to change their minds and convince them to give up some of their power as citizens. It's hard to imagine anyone cares enough about this issue to put up the money for a thorough and well organized effort.
So a constitutional amendment more than likely isn't going to happen. Perdue can keep fighting it through the court system. But with her approval numbers what they are already, does she really want to be seen as spending her energy and political capital on an intergovernmental turf battle?
Coming next week
On Monday we're going to have our monthly national poll looking forward to 2012. Obama's actually steady with independents from last month but continuing to lose the little crossover approval he had to begin with. But do Republicans need a new face from the well known quartet most discussed as possible nominees if they're going to be able to knock him off?
Tuesday and Wednesday we'll have the Louisiana poll. Bobby Jindal is a popular dude. Barack Obama is not. There are mixed messages on David Vitter.
Stay tuned...
Tuesday and Wednesday we'll have the Louisiana poll. Bobby Jindal is a popular dude. Barack Obama is not. There are mixed messages on David Vitter.
Stay tuned...
Independents more conservative
Our polls have pretty universally shown Barack Obama's approval rating dropping with independents lately, but when you take a look at who those voters are it seems almost inevitable.
Our most recent national poll showed that among independents 37% describe themselves as conservatives with just 11% defining themselves as liberals. An average of our last eight state polls finds 33% conservatives and 7% liberals. Nationally 52% are moderates and our state level average is 60%.
There have always been more conservatives than liberals within the independent ranks, but recent drops in Republican identification have likely widened the gap.
That means the independent ranks as currently constituted are more inclined to support GOP positions and candidates, although they obviously have some differences with the party line or they would probably still be in the party. This doesn't mean there's been no decline for Obama with moderate independents, but it does help to explain the weaker numbers for him with that group and why there's more of a propensity for his numbers to drop with them.
Here are the state by state numbers for independents by ideology for the last eight places we've polled:
Our most recent national poll showed that among independents 37% describe themselves as conservatives with just 11% defining themselves as liberals. An average of our last eight state polls finds 33% conservatives and 7% liberals. Nationally 52% are moderates and our state level average is 60%.
There have always been more conservatives than liberals within the independent ranks, but recent drops in Republican identification have likely widened the gap.
That means the independent ranks as currently constituted are more inclined to support GOP positions and candidates, although they obviously have some differences with the party line or they would probably still be in the party. This doesn't mean there's been no decline for Obama with moderate independents, but it does help to explain the weaker numbers for him with that group and why there's more of a propensity for his numbers to drop with them.
Here are the state by state numbers for independents by ideology for the last eight places we've polled:
| State | Liberals | Moderates | Conservatives |
| | 7 | 69 | 25 |
| | 9 | 60 | 31 |
| | 5 | 61 | 35 |
| | 9 | 71 | 20 |
| | 4 | 73 | 23 |
| | 10 | 56 | 35 |
| | 8 | 52 | 40 |
| | 10 | 43 | 47 |
Looking back on North Carolina's Senators
Continuing our series of polls looking at who North Carolinians view most and least fondly of recent elected officials, we find that Jesse Helms is the most popular of the state's last seven Senators with John Edwards taking the dubious least popular honors.
Helms, the only North Carolina Senator to be reelected in more than 40 years, was picked as most popular by 35% of respondents. Edwards finished second with 19%, and Terry Sanford finished third with 16%.
Helms finished first among Republicans with 59% picking him and also among independents with 32% picking him. Elizabeth Dole was the only other person to receive double digits among GOP voters. With Democrats Edwards finished first with 31%, followed by Sanford at 25%, and Helms at 20%.
It may seem curious that so many people picked Edwards given his overall unpopularity but that's probably owing to there only having been three Democratic Senators during this period, with Sanford having left office 17 years ago and Kay Hagan still relatively unknown to most voters.
Helms, perhaps surprisingly, was the top choice of moderates. He also won in every region of the state. The older a respondent was the more likely they were to say Helms was their favorite, an indication that he more represents where North Carolina has been than where North Carolina is headed.
Edwards and Helms finish in the top spots for the least popular category as well. Edwards gets 41% on that measure with Helms at 29% and Elizabeth Dole in third place at 11%.
Edwards is least popular among Republicans and independents, while Helms is with Democrats.
You could make an argument from the overall numbers that Sanford is actually the most positively remembered of this group. While 16% picked him as their favorite, just 3% said he was their last favorite. That +13 net review tops Helms' +6 for top honors.
Previous polls showed Ronald Reagan and Jim Hunt as most popular among recent Presidents and Governors, while George W. Bush and Mike Easley were the least popular.
Full results here
Helms, the only North Carolina Senator to be reelected in more than 40 years, was picked as most popular by 35% of respondents. Edwards finished second with 19%, and Terry Sanford finished third with 16%.
Helms finished first among Republicans with 59% picking him and also among independents with 32% picking him. Elizabeth Dole was the only other person to receive double digits among GOP voters. With Democrats Edwards finished first with 31%, followed by Sanford at 25%, and Helms at 20%.
It may seem curious that so many people picked Edwards given his overall unpopularity but that's probably owing to there only having been three Democratic Senators during this period, with Sanford having left office 17 years ago and Kay Hagan still relatively unknown to most voters.
Helms, perhaps surprisingly, was the top choice of moderates. He also won in every region of the state. The older a respondent was the more likely they were to say Helms was their favorite, an indication that he more represents where North Carolina has been than where North Carolina is headed.
Edwards and Helms finish in the top spots for the least popular category as well. Edwards gets 41% on that measure with Helms at 29% and Elizabeth Dole in third place at 11%.
Edwards is least popular among Republicans and independents, while Helms is with Democrats.
You could make an argument from the overall numbers that Sanford is actually the most positively remembered of this group. While 16% picked him as their favorite, just 3% said he was their last favorite. That +13 net review tops Helms' +6 for top honors.
Previous polls showed Ronald Reagan and Jim Hunt as most popular among recent Presidents and Governors, while George W. Bush and Mike Easley were the least popular.
Full results here
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Fundraising Figures
Swing State Project as always does an excellent job, this time centralizing fundraising figures for members of Congress in swing districts.
Two big takeaways for me:
-Not that I thought he was anyway, but Mike McIntyre sure doesn't look like someone planning to make a bid for the Senate next year. His 121k raised is nothing out of the ordinary. By comparison a couple of Democrats who are looking to move up- Joe Sestak and Carolyn Maloney- raised over a million dollars and nearly 600k respectively. McIntyre certainly could pick up the pace if he decided to make a bid but he doesn't appear to have been laying the groundwork during this quarter.
-Larry Kissell's numbers aren't that hot. He raised 156k and has 214k on hand. Near as I can tell that lags all of his freshmen Democratic colleagues in competitive districts. It doesn't mean Kissell's in peril- he's shown an ability to do a lot with a little, especially in his 2006 campaign. But it's not likely to scare any potential challengers off either.
Two big takeaways for me:
-Not that I thought he was anyway, but Mike McIntyre sure doesn't look like someone planning to make a bid for the Senate next year. His 121k raised is nothing out of the ordinary. By comparison a couple of Democrats who are looking to move up- Joe Sestak and Carolyn Maloney- raised over a million dollars and nearly 600k respectively. McIntyre certainly could pick up the pace if he decided to make a bid but he doesn't appear to have been laying the groundwork during this quarter.
-Larry Kissell's numbers aren't that hot. He raised 156k and has 214k on hand. Near as I can tell that lags all of his freshmen Democratic colleagues in competitive districts. It doesn't mean Kissell's in peril- he's shown an ability to do a lot with a little, especially in his 2006 campaign. But it's not likely to scare any potential challengers off either.
Notes on Palin and the GOP
So here's a surprise from the national poll we did on Sarah Palin last week: she's more popular with Republican voters in the northeast than in the south or midwest.
When you look at the ideological composition of Republican voters by region though it's less startling: 74% of Republicans voters in the NE describe themselves as conservatives, not all that different from the 75% in the midwest, 79% in the south, and 73% in the west. It's safe to say the days of Rockefeller Republicans are long gone- of course this same survey showed that only 19% of moderates nationally identify with the GOP so that's no great shock.
Palin is viewed favorably by 89% of western Republicans, 86% in the northeast, 76% in the south, and 71% in the midwest. I wouldn't extrapolate these numbers too far, but it might be an indication she could do better in New Hampshire than Iowa. That might be particularly true if Tim Pawlenty gets a next door bonus like Dick Gephardt did in 1988 and Barack Obama did last year.
The southern numbers aren't that surprising to me. I think she will have a hard time there in the primaries if Mike Huckabee or Newt Gingrich is in the race.
It's hard to believe we're already less than two and a half years away from the beginning of the nomination contests!
When you look at the ideological composition of Republican voters by region though it's less startling: 74% of Republicans voters in the NE describe themselves as conservatives, not all that different from the 75% in the midwest, 79% in the south, and 73% in the west. It's safe to say the days of Rockefeller Republicans are long gone- of course this same survey showed that only 19% of moderates nationally identify with the GOP so that's no great shock.
Palin is viewed favorably by 89% of western Republicans, 86% in the northeast, 76% in the south, and 71% in the midwest. I wouldn't extrapolate these numbers too far, but it might be an indication she could do better in New Hampshire than Iowa. That might be particularly true if Tim Pawlenty gets a next door bonus like Dick Gephardt did in 1988 and Barack Obama did last year.
The southern numbers aren't that surprising to me. I think she will have a hard time there in the primaries if Mike Huckabee or Newt Gingrich is in the race.
It's hard to believe we're already less than two and a half years away from the beginning of the nomination contests!
Monthly Burr Numbers
Richard Burr's numbers are looking a little bit better than they did a month ago, perhaps owing to declining support for the President in North Carolina.
Burr's approval rating is now 36/29, an improvement from a 34/35 spread last month. And he now leads a generic Democratic candidate 40-38, after trailing by a 41-38 margin in June.
Burr leads likely Democratic opponents Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis 40-31 and 42-31 respectively.
This poll provides continuing confirmation that independents in the state are leaning Republican as we move toward 2010. Even though they slightly disapprove of his performance, 35/33, they give Burr a ten point lead on the generic ballot and ones of 17 and 18 points over Lewis and Cunningham. It's an early indicator that messaging about not giving Democrats too much power may have some sway in the state next year.
Despite some signs of improvement, Burr continues to be in a weaker position than Elizabeth Dole was at this point two years ago. Our July 2007 survey found her with a 46% approval rating and a 43-27 lead over eventual opponent Kay Hagan. Cunningham and Lewis are both polling better right now against Burr than Hagan did in any of our surveys until after she had won the primary in May 2008.
The other thing noteworthy in the match ups with Lewis and Cunningham is that there are more than twice as many Democratic undecideds as Republicans, giving both of them a lot more room to grow than Burr.
Full results here
Burr's approval rating is now 36/29, an improvement from a 34/35 spread last month. And he now leads a generic Democratic candidate 40-38, after trailing by a 41-38 margin in June.
Burr leads likely Democratic opponents Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis 40-31 and 42-31 respectively.
This poll provides continuing confirmation that independents in the state are leaning Republican as we move toward 2010. Even though they slightly disapprove of his performance, 35/33, they give Burr a ten point lead on the generic ballot and ones of 17 and 18 points over Lewis and Cunningham. It's an early indicator that messaging about not giving Democrats too much power may have some sway in the state next year.
Despite some signs of improvement, Burr continues to be in a weaker position than Elizabeth Dole was at this point two years ago. Our July 2007 survey found her with a 46% approval rating and a 43-27 lead over eventual opponent Kay Hagan. Cunningham and Lewis are both polling better right now against Burr than Hagan did in any of our surveys until after she had won the primary in May 2008.
The other thing noteworthy in the match ups with Lewis and Cunningham is that there are more than twice as many Democratic undecideds as Republicans, giving both of them a lot more room to grow than Burr.
Full results here
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Not a bad start for Lewis
Under the Dome reports Kenneth Lewis has raised almost 110k so far for a Senate bid next year.
That's not exactly going to have Richard Burr shaking in his boots, but it's not a bad start either. If nothing else it would seem to indicate there will be a more competitive primary on the Democratic side than there was in 2008. Last year Jim Neal only raised 288k for the entirety of his contest against Kay Hagan (he also loaned his campaign 120k.) Assuming that Cal Cunningham or some other candidate who enters the race starts out as the 'favorite,' Lewis' haul indicates he should at least have the money to get his message out in a better way than Neal did.
Personally I think a competitive primary will ultimately be a good thing for whoever ends up as the nominee against Burr, particularly if it is one of these folks who is not yet particularly well known.
We'll have our latest numbers on Burr, including match ups with Lewis and Cunningham, tomorrow.
That's not exactly going to have Richard Burr shaking in his boots, but it's not a bad start either. If nothing else it would seem to indicate there will be a more competitive primary on the Democratic side than there was in 2008. Last year Jim Neal only raised 288k for the entirety of his contest against Kay Hagan (he also loaned his campaign 120k.) Assuming that Cal Cunningham or some other candidate who enters the race starts out as the 'favorite,' Lewis' haul indicates he should at least have the money to get his message out in a better way than Neal did.
Personally I think a competitive primary will ultimately be a good thing for whoever ends up as the nominee against Burr, particularly if it is one of these folks who is not yet particularly well known.
We'll have our latest numbers on Burr, including match ups with Lewis and Cunningham, tomorrow.
Interesting shift in Kay Hagan's approval
Kay Hagan's approval is split 32/32, numbers almost identical to a 33/33 split the last time we polled it in April.
On the surface it may seem like nothing's changed in the last three months but within the crosstabs there's a pretty interesting trend. Among Democrats her numbers are down, from a 51/13 spread then to a 44/19 one now. But among Republicans and independents she's up, improving from 9/57 to 14/51 with the GOP and from 28/39 to 33/32 with those in the middle.
Hagan's been getting the most attention in recent days for her views on the health care bill, taking some heat from Democrats for not being supportive enough of President Obama's agenda on the issue. It does seem like that's knocked down her numbers a little bit with the party's base, but at the same time it seems her independence is helping her a little in the center and across the aisle. All in all it's a wash when it comes to her popularity.
Full results here
On the surface it may seem like nothing's changed in the last three months but within the crosstabs there's a pretty interesting trend. Among Democrats her numbers are down, from a 51/13 spread then to a 44/19 one now. But among Republicans and independents she's up, improving from 9/57 to 14/51 with the GOP and from 28/39 to 33/32 with those in the middle.
Hagan's been getting the most attention in recent days for her views on the health care bill, taking some heat from Democrats for not being supportive enough of President Obama's agenda on the issue. It does seem like that's knocked down her numbers a little bit with the party's base, but at the same time it seems her independence is helping her a little in the center and across the aisle. All in all it's a wash when it comes to her popularity.
Full results here
Obama below 50 but beats Palin
Barack Obama's approval rating in North Carolina has crept below 50% for the first time. 49% of voters in the state now give him good marks for his performance with 44% disapproving.
Obama's approval has been between 49 and 54% in the state over the last six months of PPP's polls. His main drop in the last month has come among independents. Where before they gave him good reviews by a margin of 49/43, they are now evenly split in their assessments of Obama at 44.
79% of Democrats but only 10% of Republicans approve of him.
The state might not be as enthused about Obama as it was earlier in his term but he is still preferred to Sarah Palin. 46% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of her, with 44% holding a positive one. Those numbers are largely unchanged from last fall when 41% said John McCain's selection of her made them less likely to vote for him, while 39% said her presence on the ticket made them more inclined to cast a GOP vote.
Pitted head to head, Obama leads Palin 49-42. That would be the best performance for a Democrat in the state since Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford by 11 points in 1976.
Obama has definitely seen a small decline in his popularity but keeping things in perspective, his approval is 14 points better than George W. Bush's 35% at this time two years ago. He's been able to sustain his base during his first six months in office, and if he's able to show any progress on the economy he should be able to regain some of the soft independent support he's lost in the last few months.
Full results here.
Obama's approval has been between 49 and 54% in the state over the last six months of PPP's polls. His main drop in the last month has come among independents. Where before they gave him good reviews by a margin of 49/43, they are now evenly split in their assessments of Obama at 44.
79% of Democrats but only 10% of Republicans approve of him.
The state might not be as enthused about Obama as it was earlier in his term but he is still preferred to Sarah Palin. 46% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of her, with 44% holding a positive one. Those numbers are largely unchanged from last fall when 41% said John McCain's selection of her made them less likely to vote for him, while 39% said her presence on the ticket made them more inclined to cast a GOP vote.
Pitted head to head, Obama leads Palin 49-42. That would be the best performance for a Democrat in the state since Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford by 11 points in 1976.
Obama has definitely seen a small decline in his popularity but keeping things in perspective, his approval is 14 points better than George W. Bush's 35% at this time two years ago. He's been able to sustain his base during his first six months in office, and if he's able to show any progress on the economy he should be able to regain some of the soft independent support he's lost in the last few months.
Full results here.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
NC still blaming Bush
Beyond the Perdue approval numbers we released today we also asked folks what politicians they held most responsible for the current state of the economy. George W. Bush is still holding the trophy on that one, with 56% of respondents saying they blame him to 37% for Barack Obama and 6% for Bev Perdue.
Still 14% of Democrats and 38% of independents are now pinning it on the current President, signaling at least some impatience about the lack of a turnaround six months into the Obama administration. Those Democrats faulting Obama more than Bush for the economic woes account for more than 60% of the voters within his party who said they disapproved of him on this survey.
We also drummed down on who folks were more inclined to blame just between the two sitting Democrats. Obama took 57% on that measure to 43% for Perdue but Democrats interestingly are more inclined to put it on the Governor by a margin of 63-37. That goes a long way toward explaining the poor numbers within her party.
Still 14% of Democrats and 38% of independents are now pinning it on the current President, signaling at least some impatience about the lack of a turnaround six months into the Obama administration. Those Democrats faulting Obama more than Bush for the economic woes account for more than 60% of the voters within his party who said they disapproved of him on this survey.
We also drummed down on who folks were more inclined to blame just between the two sitting Democrats. Obama took 57% on that measure to 43% for Perdue but Democrats interestingly are more inclined to put it on the Governor by a margin of 63-37. That goes a long way toward explaining the poor numbers within her party.
Updated Governor Approvals
Here are the numbers for all the Governors we've polled on so far in 2009:
I think these numbers pretty clearly back up the trends Nate Silver and others have noted relating to small state Governors faring better than big state ones in the current climate. I think you can definitely make an argument that Tim Kaine's numbers are the most impressive of the bunch given that he's been able to buck that trend. His DNC stint doesn't seem to be causing too much unrest with the general public in Virginia.
Pat Quinn's are great too but he does benefit from a certain amount of 'we're just glad it's not Blago anymore' sentiment.
| Governor | Approval |
| Mike Beebe (D-AR) | 68/20 |
| Jack Markell (D-DE) | 62/17 |
| Joe Manchin (D-WV) | 53/34 |
| Brad Henry (D-OK) | 52/36 |
| Bob Riley (R-AL) | 51/36 |
| Pat Quinn (D-IL) | 49/25 |
| Tim Kaine (D-VA) | 49/38 |
| Steve Beshear (D-KY) | 47/37 |
| Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) | 44/48 |
| Ted Strickland (D-OH) | 43/42 |
| Rick Perry (R-TX) | 41/48 |
| Bill Ritter (D-CO) | 41/49 |
| Jon Corzine (D-NJ) | 36/56 |
| Jim Doyle (D-WI) | 34/60 |
| Bev Perdue (D-NC) | 25/55 |
I think these numbers pretty clearly back up the trends Nate Silver and others have noted relating to small state Governors faring better than big state ones in the current climate. I think you can definitely make an argument that Tim Kaine's numbers are the most impressive of the bunch given that he's been able to buck that trend. His DNC stint doesn't seem to be causing too much unrest with the general public in Virginia.
Pat Quinn's are great too but he does benefit from a certain amount of 'we're just glad it's not Blago anymore' sentiment.
Coleman parallels in North Carolina
I was talking to a reporter this morning about how Norm Coleman's popularity with Minnesota voters was hurt by his drawing out the recount in his Senate race and how that had the potential to hurt him in a future electoral contest. I hadn't thought about it until then but we actually have a pretty recent example of this happening in North Carolina politics.
In 2004 June Atkinson beat Bill Fletcher by two tenths of a point in a closely contested race for Superintendent of Public Instruction. Fletcher's challenge to the results lasted so long that Atkinson wasn't sworn in until August.
While Fletcher was constantly in the news with his court battle he was also continuing to serve in his position on the Wake County School Board, for which he had to stand for reelection in October 2005, just two months after his statewide race was finally resolved.
Though Fletcher had been reelected with 69% of the vote in 2001, in 2005 he finished last in a third candidate field with only 21%. How much of that very weak performance can be attributed to his actions in the Superintendent race is certainly up for debate but while potential recriminations for Coleman because of his recount behavior down the line are still theoretical, the Fletcher example shows us how this played out in a real instance. It will be interesting to see if it plays out similarly in Minnesota.
In 2004 June Atkinson beat Bill Fletcher by two tenths of a point in a closely contested race for Superintendent of Public Instruction. Fletcher's challenge to the results lasted so long that Atkinson wasn't sworn in until August.
While Fletcher was constantly in the news with his court battle he was also continuing to serve in his position on the Wake County School Board, for which he had to stand for reelection in October 2005, just two months after his statewide race was finally resolved.
Though Fletcher had been reelected with 69% of the vote in 2001, in 2005 he finished last in a third candidate field with only 21%. How much of that very weak performance can be attributed to his actions in the Superintendent race is certainly up for debate but while potential recriminations for Coleman because of his recount behavior down the line are still theoretical, the Fletcher example shows us how this played out in a real instance. It will be interesting to see if it plays out similarly in Minnesota.
25%
Bev Perdue's approval rating is now down to 25%, with 55% of voters disapproving of her performance and 20% ambivalent.
From a high of 44% in March, Perdue's approval dropped to 41% in April, 34% in May, 30% in June, and now 25%.
Her most precipitous decline has come among Democrats- the number of them looking positively on her performance has dropped 28 points from 66% in March to now 38%. A 40% plurality of voters in her party now disapprove of her performance. She's also had a 17 point decrease in her support from independents and a nine point one among Republicans.
Voters tend to want leaders who exude confidence and seem steady at the ship, especially in difficult times like these. In the first few months of her administration Perdue seemed strong and decisive but since releasing her proposed budget in mid-March she has come across as almost paralyzed, scared to do much of anything lest there be negative political implications.
Since the result of all that has been plummeting approval ratings anyway it almost seems like time for Perdue to tell herself that she needs to govern as if she wasn't going to run for reelection and truly start pursuing the agenda that she laid out for the state during her campaign last year. She has said repeatedly that she admires the way O. Max Gardner used the Depression as an opportunity to transform the way things are done in the state, but she herself has not led in that way. It may be too late to do anything bold on that front for this year but she has at least two and a half more to bring meaningful positive change before she has to really start facing the voters again.
One way Perdue could have prevented this steep of a drop from occurring- and can turn it around in the future- is to pursue a more clear policy agenda. Bills like the smoking ban in public places, the comprehensive sex education bill, and the school violence prevention act during this session all enjoyed broad public support, especially among her party's base. But other than signing them the Governor chose not to play a public role in advocating for their passage. She could have won more affection with the folks who voted for her by choosing to be more visible on things going on in the General Assembly besides just the budget.
Perdue's in bad shape- the only Senator or Governor we've polled on this year with a worse approval rating is Roland Burris. But it's only been six months, and she has shown she has the vision to govern in a very different way than she has so far that would likely help her fare much better in the court of public opinion. Whether she chooses to follow through on that vision or continue on her current squeamish path may determine her ultimate fate as Governor.
Full results here
From a high of 44% in March, Perdue's approval dropped to 41% in April, 34% in May, 30% in June, and now 25%.
Her most precipitous decline has come among Democrats- the number of them looking positively on her performance has dropped 28 points from 66% in March to now 38%. A 40% plurality of voters in her party now disapprove of her performance. She's also had a 17 point decrease in her support from independents and a nine point one among Republicans.
Voters tend to want leaders who exude confidence and seem steady at the ship, especially in difficult times like these. In the first few months of her administration Perdue seemed strong and decisive but since releasing her proposed budget in mid-March she has come across as almost paralyzed, scared to do much of anything lest there be negative political implications.
Since the result of all that has been plummeting approval ratings anyway it almost seems like time for Perdue to tell herself that she needs to govern as if she wasn't going to run for reelection and truly start pursuing the agenda that she laid out for the state during her campaign last year. She has said repeatedly that she admires the way O. Max Gardner used the Depression as an opportunity to transform the way things are done in the state, but she herself has not led in that way. It may be too late to do anything bold on that front for this year but she has at least two and a half more to bring meaningful positive change before she has to really start facing the voters again.
One way Perdue could have prevented this steep of a drop from occurring- and can turn it around in the future- is to pursue a more clear policy agenda. Bills like the smoking ban in public places, the comprehensive sex education bill, and the school violence prevention act during this session all enjoyed broad public support, especially among her party's base. But other than signing them the Governor chose not to play a public role in advocating for their passage. She could have won more affection with the folks who voted for her by choosing to be more visible on things going on in the General Assembly besides just the budget.
Perdue's in bad shape- the only Senator or Governor we've polled on this year with a worse approval rating is Roland Burris. But it's only been six months, and she has shown she has the vision to govern in a very different way than she has so far that would likely help her fare much better in the court of public opinion. Whether she chooses to follow through on that vision or continue on her current squeamish path may determine her ultimate fate as Governor.
Full results here
Monday, July 13, 2009
Kirk, no Kirk, whatev...Giannoulias favored
It looks like the will he or won't he wheel of Mark Kirk's political fortune has landed on a Senate bid- for today anyway.
When we polled Kirk against Alexi Giannoulias in April they were knotted up at 35, but most of the numbers within the survey boded well for the Democrat:
-Giannoulias was winning over a slightly higher percentage of moderate Republicans (11%) than Kirk was of moderate Democrats (7%). When you have a state with a significant Democratic lean to begin with that's not a good equation for the Republican.
-While only 17% of conservative Republicans (Kirk's strongest base) were undecided, 23% of liberal Democrats and 35% of moderate Democrats (Giannoulias's strongest bases) were.
-Among moderate independents (Giannoulias leaning) 37% were undecided but among conservative independents (Kirk leaning) only 28% were.
There's no doubt Kirk is the strongest candidate Republicans could possibly have put forward for this seat. But the fact that the best he could muster in April was a tie when a significant swath of the undecideds were Democratic leaning means he's definitely starting out from behind.
When we polled Kirk against Alexi Giannoulias in April they were knotted up at 35, but most of the numbers within the survey boded well for the Democrat:
-Giannoulias was winning over a slightly higher percentage of moderate Republicans (11%) than Kirk was of moderate Democrats (7%). When you have a state with a significant Democratic lean to begin with that's not a good equation for the Republican.
-While only 17% of conservative Republicans (Kirk's strongest base) were undecided, 23% of liberal Democrats and 35% of moderate Democrats (Giannoulias's strongest bases) were.
-Among moderate independents (Giannoulias leaning) 37% were undecided but among conservative independents (Kirk leaning) only 28% were.
There's no doubt Kirk is the strongest candidate Republicans could possibly have put forward for this seat. But the fact that the best he could muster in April was a tie when a significant swath of the undecideds were Democratic leaning means he's definitely starting out from behind.
Palin's Fitness to be President
Last week our national survey found just 37% of voters in the country think Sarah Palin is fit to be President- 55% don't. A deeper analysis of the numbers finds that Palin's coalition is largely limited to conservative Republicans and independents and doesn't include the moderates she would likely need to succeed in a national election:
It's interesting to see that moderate and liberal Democrats are more sold on Palin's not being fit to serve as President than conservative Republicans are on her being fit. With moderate Republicans her problem is that while almost half of them- 47%- have a positive opinion of her almost 40% of those who do like her still don't think she's fit to be President.
She also doesn't appear to have much crossover potential with conservative Democrats and with the most center leaning group of voters there is- moderate independents- she still has a way to go to convince folks she'd be alright in the White House.
| Group | Palin’s Fitness to be President (Yes/No) | Group’s % of the electorate |
| Conservative Republicans | 77/16 | 28 |
| Liberal Democrats | 6/88 | 19 |
| Moderate Democrats | 6/87 | 18 |
| Moderate Independents | 35/55 | 12 |
| Conservative Independents | 56/34 | 8 |
| Moderate Republicans | 28/61 | 7 |
| Conservative Democrats | 22/73 | 5 |
It's interesting to see that moderate and liberal Democrats are more sold on Palin's not being fit to serve as President than conservative Republicans are on her being fit. With moderate Republicans her problem is that while almost half of them- 47%- have a positive opinion of her almost 40% of those who do like her still don't think she's fit to be President.
She also doesn't appear to have much crossover potential with conservative Democrats and with the most center leaning group of voters there is- moderate independents- she still has a way to go to convince folks she'd be alright in the White House.
Couple Highlights from the NC Poll
-More Democrats disapprove than approve of Bev Perdue's job performance. Only other politician we've polled on that's been true of is Roland Burris.
-When we asked folks who their favorite and least favorite of North Carolina's last seven Senators were less than 4% picked Richard Burr on either account- fewer even than long ago ones like Terry Sanford or Lauch Faircloth or very new ones like Kay Hagan, in office fewer than six months. That ambivalence could of course work either way next year at the ballot box.
We'll start rolling it out tomorrow, beginning with the Perdue numbers.
-When we asked folks who their favorite and least favorite of North Carolina's last seven Senators were less than 4% picked Richard Burr on either account- fewer even than long ago ones like Terry Sanford or Lauch Faircloth or very new ones like Kay Hagan, in office fewer than six months. That ambivalence could of course work either way next year at the ballot box.
We'll start rolling it out tomorrow, beginning with the Perdue numbers.
And the finalists are...
Thank you for truly a great list of ideas on where we could poll this week. Very good suggestions.
Here are the finalists:
California: How vulnerable is Barbara Boxer to a challenge from Carly Fiorina? And now that the Governor's race is down to a more manageable number of candidates and thus easier to poll, who is the front runner?
Iowa: A Republican poll out last week showed a strange dichotomy- Chet Culver with good approval numbers, at least in this political climate, but bad reelect numbers. We would test him against some specific challengers, and also look at fav/unfavs for some of the leading 2012 GOP Presidential possibilities (although among the general electorate, way too early to try to do it among likely caucus goers.)
Louisiana: This one will be getting my personal vote. How does Charlie Melancon do against David Vitter, and in general is Vitter really vulnerable or not? Plus, is Bobby Jindal more popular in his home state than Tim Pawlenty?
Voting is open until 11 AM Wednesday, we'll do the poll in the winning state over the weekend, and start releasing numbers from it on Tuesday.
Here are the finalists:
California: How vulnerable is Barbara Boxer to a challenge from Carly Fiorina? And now that the Governor's race is down to a more manageable number of candidates and thus easier to poll, who is the front runner?
Iowa: A Republican poll out last week showed a strange dichotomy- Chet Culver with good approval numbers, at least in this political climate, but bad reelect numbers. We would test him against some specific challengers, and also look at fav/unfavs for some of the leading 2012 GOP Presidential possibilities (although among the general electorate, way too early to try to do it among likely caucus goers.)
Louisiana: This one will be getting my personal vote. How does Charlie Melancon do against David Vitter, and in general is Vitter really vulnerable or not? Plus, is Bobby Jindal more popular in his home state than Tim Pawlenty?
Voting is open until 11 AM Wednesday, we'll do the poll in the winning state over the weekend, and start releasing numbers from it on Tuesday.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Taking your nominations for polling
Since we're locked into North Carolina, New Jersey, and Virginia for three of our weekly state polls a month it's been a while since we took your suggestions and let you vote but we're going to do that for the survey we'll conduct next weekend.
So where should we poll? Leave your ideas in the comments. We'll choose two or three of our favorites and put it to a vote on the blog the first few days of next week.
As always we are most interested in polling races that:
1) Could potentially show a sitting Senator or Governor up for reelection next year to be more vulnerable than is current public perception
2) Have had a minimal amount of public polling
But those aren't absolute requirements, so fire away.
So where should we poll? Leave your ideas in the comments. We'll choose two or three of our favorites and put it to a vote on the blog the first few days of next week.
As always we are most interested in polling races that:
1) Could potentially show a sitting Senator or Governor up for reelection next year to be more vulnerable than is current public perception
2) Have had a minimal amount of public polling
But those aren't absolute requirements, so fire away.
Coming next week
We'll have our big monthly North Carolina poll:
The biggest questions are probably whether Barack Obama is seeing a decline in his numbers like we're finding other places and whether Bev Perdue's approval numbers can get any lower. Based on preliminary responses the answer to both questions is yes, although not by a large degree. And that could change as we do more interviews over the weekend.
We're going to start doing monthly tracking of Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis against Richard Burr since it seems like they may be the Democratic candidates- and of course we can add to that mix if someone else serious jumps in. I will just about guarantee you Burr has a double digit lead against both of these guys until May 2010 at the earliest- that's what we found with Hagan and Dole.
We're also delving a little into which politicians voters are blaming for the economy, what they think of Sarah Palin and we'll have the much promised look at who North Carolina's favorites and least favorites are among the state's last seven Senators. It's already pretty clear it's a blowout on both fronts, which makes the results predictable.
We'll start rolling that stuff out Tuesday, stay tuned!
The biggest questions are probably whether Barack Obama is seeing a decline in his numbers like we're finding other places and whether Bev Perdue's approval numbers can get any lower. Based on preliminary responses the answer to both questions is yes, although not by a large degree. And that could change as we do more interviews over the weekend.
We're going to start doing monthly tracking of Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis against Richard Burr since it seems like they may be the Democratic candidates- and of course we can add to that mix if someone else serious jumps in. I will just about guarantee you Burr has a double digit lead against both of these guys until May 2010 at the earliest- that's what we found with Hagan and Dole.
We're also delving a little into which politicians voters are blaming for the economy, what they think of Sarah Palin and we'll have the much promised look at who North Carolina's favorites and least favorites are among the state's last seven Senators. It's already pretty clear it's a blowout on both fronts, which makes the results predictable.
We'll start rolling that stuff out Tuesday, stay tuned!
Reacting to our polls
I tend to find the reactions of politicians and their handlers to polls we release that they don't like the results of to be pretty short sighted. For instance even though we're a Democratic company we've been criticized in the last few months by Blanche Lincoln, Michael Bennet, and the Wisconsin Democratic Party. From my experience, when folks start dissing pollsters it is the surest confirmation that they are in some trouble. Every single campaign I can remember publicly attacking us last year- Elizabeth Dole, Richard Moore, Bob Orr, Bill Daughtridge- ended up losing.
Which brings me to my point- Tim Kaine's comments yesterday to the Richmond Times-Dispatch when asked about our Virginia poll this week that wasn't so great for Democrats are exactly the way to respond. Instead of bad mouthing us he just stayed on message, said that he thought Obama was popular in Virginia, and that the Democratic ticket was in perfectly good position to win this fall. That sort of response projects a lot more confidence in your position than feeling the need to speak negatively about a friendly but honest polling company.
Paul Shumaker of Richard Burr's campaign is well on his way to winning the gold medal for how not to deal with a pollster that you don't like, as his continual diatribes against us are keeping Burr's vulnerability in the spotlight and frankly making us look better than they make him look. The latest came in a Roll Call story yesterday about how he had to pay for the poll he conducted about Burr last month and list it as an in kind contribution on finance reports lest he run into trouble with the FEC. Apparently unhappy that he can't both be Burr's chief advisor and claim that polling he conducts about Burr is independent of the campaign, he used the opportunity to lash out at us once again, suggesting that 'We need to have the discussion of who is paying for the PPP polls.'
I guess he must think the big bad Democratic bogeyman is paying us to do polls. But here's a selection of our media hits from the last month alone:
-Democratic Wisconsin Governor trailing two opponents for reelection.
-Unions unpopular in North Carolina.
-Mike Easley the most disliked Governor in recent state history.
-Incumbent Democratic Ohio Governor with plummeting approval and reelect numbers.
-Bev Perdue with a 30% approval rating.
-Jon Corzine down by double digits, Barack Obama's approval rating declining in New Jersey.
-The entire GOP ticket leading by at least six points in Virginia.
-Obama numbers under 50% with independents everywhere we've polled lately.
It's safe to say no external Democratic candidate or organization is funding this onslaught of bad news we're releasing- if anything someone might want to pay us not to! The truth is that almost every set of numbers we've released in the last month has been good news for Republicans- with the exception of Sarah Palin, Richard Burr, Norm Coleman, and Tim Pawlenty- and that's their fault, not ours. If a third party organization ever funds a poll we put out publicly that will be front and center in the release, otherwise we're funding our own research to increase the amount of information publicly available about various races and issues of interest across the country.
Which brings me to my point- Tim Kaine's comments yesterday to the Richmond Times-Dispatch when asked about our Virginia poll this week that wasn't so great for Democrats are exactly the way to respond. Instead of bad mouthing us he just stayed on message, said that he thought Obama was popular in Virginia, and that the Democratic ticket was in perfectly good position to win this fall. That sort of response projects a lot more confidence in your position than feeling the need to speak negatively about a friendly but honest polling company.
Paul Shumaker of Richard Burr's campaign is well on his way to winning the gold medal for how not to deal with a pollster that you don't like, as his continual diatribes against us are keeping Burr's vulnerability in the spotlight and frankly making us look better than they make him look. The latest came in a Roll Call story yesterday about how he had to pay for the poll he conducted about Burr last month and list it as an in kind contribution on finance reports lest he run into trouble with the FEC. Apparently unhappy that he can't both be Burr's chief advisor and claim that polling he conducts about Burr is independent of the campaign, he used the opportunity to lash out at us once again, suggesting that 'We need to have the discussion of who is paying for the PPP polls.'
I guess he must think the big bad Democratic bogeyman is paying us to do polls. But here's a selection of our media hits from the last month alone:
-Democratic Wisconsin Governor trailing two opponents for reelection.
-Unions unpopular in North Carolina.
-Mike Easley the most disliked Governor in recent state history.
-Incumbent Democratic Ohio Governor with plummeting approval and reelect numbers.
-Bev Perdue with a 30% approval rating.
-Jon Corzine down by double digits, Barack Obama's approval rating declining in New Jersey.
-The entire GOP ticket leading by at least six points in Virginia.
-Obama numbers under 50% with independents everywhere we've polled lately.
It's safe to say no external Democratic candidate or organization is funding this onslaught of bad news we're releasing- if anything someone might want to pay us not to! The truth is that almost every set of numbers we've released in the last month has been good news for Republicans- with the exception of Sarah Palin, Richard Burr, Norm Coleman, and Tim Pawlenty- and that's their fault, not ours. If a third party organization ever funds a poll we put out publicly that will be front and center in the release, otherwise we're funding our own research to increase the amount of information publicly available about various races and issues of interest across the country.
Ohio Poll Roundup
I'm not going to lie- when we put out our poll a few weeks ago showing Ted Strickland with a mediocre approval rating and barely leading John Kasich I felt very queasy about it because it was so far outside the conventional wisdom of where that race stands. It's never easy to be first on that front, so it's a little reassuring that Quinnipiac and Research 2000 have now shown similar results even if I personally wish Strickland was in a more solid position.
R2K showed Strickland leading Kasich by 5, while our poll showed him up by just two. But I actually thought their poll was more worrisome for the Democrat than ours.
That's because we had the race tied among white voters. If a Democrat running statewide in Ohio can earn a split among white voters they win overall, end of story. Strickland's weak standing in our numbers had a lot to do with his leading only 52-28 among African Americans. I do think he has some real work to do there because when we polled the race in January it showed the same thing and Obama's approval rating with blacks in the same poll was around 90% so it's not like we got an unusually conservative sample of them. That said, Democrats often under poll in that demographic, especially this far out from an election, and it would be a surprise if Strickland didn't end up winning at least 80% of the black vote. That would push his lead in our survey up to 7 or 8 points.
The Research 2000 poll from yesterday though showed Strickland in a much weaker position with whites, trailing Kasich by seven points among them. It is possible for an Ohio Democrat to lose under those circumstances if black turnout is low or they just never really do get behind the party's candidate. Strickland was already doing well with African Americans in the R2K poll so there's a lot less room for improvement in that one than there was in our survey.
I don't know if something has genuinely changed for Strickland among whites in the three weeks between our poll and when this newer one was conducted or if it's just a methodological difference but either way it's not a good sign for his political standing right now. Of course it's a long way to November 2010.
R2K showed Strickland leading Kasich by 5, while our poll showed him up by just two. But I actually thought their poll was more worrisome for the Democrat than ours.
That's because we had the race tied among white voters. If a Democrat running statewide in Ohio can earn a split among white voters they win overall, end of story. Strickland's weak standing in our numbers had a lot to do with his leading only 52-28 among African Americans. I do think he has some real work to do there because when we polled the race in January it showed the same thing and Obama's approval rating with blacks in the same poll was around 90% so it's not like we got an unusually conservative sample of them. That said, Democrats often under poll in that demographic, especially this far out from an election, and it would be a surprise if Strickland didn't end up winning at least 80% of the black vote. That would push his lead in our survey up to 7 or 8 points.
The Research 2000 poll from yesterday though showed Strickland in a much weaker position with whites, trailing Kasich by seven points among them. It is possible for an Ohio Democrat to lose under those circumstances if black turnout is low or they just never really do get behind the party's candidate. Strickland was already doing well with African Americans in the R2K poll so there's a lot less room for improvement in that one than there was in our survey.
I don't know if something has genuinely changed for Strickland among whites in the three weeks between our poll and when this newer one was conducted or if it's just a methodological difference but either way it's not a good sign for his political standing right now. Of course it's a long way to November 2010.
Obama up big on Pawlenty, Palin
Barack Obama's approval rating in Minnesota has dropped six points since April, but that doesn't mean voters are responding too positively to some of his Republican alternatives.
54% of voters in the state now give Obama good marks, with 39% saying they disapprove of his job performance. That's down from a 60/30 spread when PPP last polled it in April. Obama has maintained all of his popularity with Democrats but has seen a small drop in his support among independents and a significant one with Republicans. Where before 23% of voters in the opposing party thought he was doing a good job, now just 12% do.
Obama nevertheless fares very well when pitted in hypothetical contests against Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin.
Against Pawlenty Obama leads 51-40, a margin that would actually exceed what he won against John McCain in the state last fall. Pawlenty's approval has also declined since we polled the state in April, and a slight plurality now disapprove of his job performance by a margin of 48/44. Previously he had a positive 46/40 spread. Perhaps the key finding within these numbers is that only 6% of respondents who approve of Obama said they would vote for Pawlenty against him. That's not much of a home field advantage for the Governor.
Against Palin Obama leads 56-35, which would be the most lopsided Presidential result in the state since Lyndon Johnson's landslide against Barry Goldwater in 1964. 53% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Palin to 39% viewing her positively. Obama has an 18 point lead among independents in the contest and also holds Palin to just 75% of the vote within her own party, a pretty good indication that some Republicans are skeptical of her as a potential occupant of the White House.
Full results here
54% of voters in the state now give Obama good marks, with 39% saying they disapprove of his job performance. That's down from a 60/30 spread when PPP last polled it in April. Obama has maintained all of his popularity with Democrats but has seen a small drop in his support among independents and a significant one with Republicans. Where before 23% of voters in the opposing party thought he was doing a good job, now just 12% do.
Obama nevertheless fares very well when pitted in hypothetical contests against Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin.
Against Pawlenty Obama leads 51-40, a margin that would actually exceed what he won against John McCain in the state last fall. Pawlenty's approval has also declined since we polled the state in April, and a slight plurality now disapprove of his job performance by a margin of 48/44. Previously he had a positive 46/40 spread. Perhaps the key finding within these numbers is that only 6% of respondents who approve of Obama said they would vote for Pawlenty against him. That's not much of a home field advantage for the Governor.
Against Palin Obama leads 56-35, which would be the most lopsided Presidential result in the state since Lyndon Johnson's landslide against Barry Goldwater in 1964. 53% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Palin to 39% viewing her positively. Obama has an 18 point lead among independents in the contest and also holds Palin to just 75% of the vote within her own party, a pretty good indication that some Republicans are skeptical of her as a potential occupant of the White House.
Full results here
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Minnesota Preview
Tomorrow we're releasing a poll looking at how Minnesota voters view Barack Obama, Sarah Palin, and Tim Pawlenty and how Obama does in a head to head against the Republicans.
There is some good news for Republicans in the numbers, but here are a couple key points:
-Only 6% of respondents who say they approve of Obama's job performance indicated they would support Pawlenty against him- not much of a 'home field' advantage for the state's Governor.
-As for Palin, well, all I can say is Goldwater.
There is some good news for Republicans in the numbers, but here are a couple key points:
-Only 6% of respondents who say they approve of Obama's job performance indicated they would support Pawlenty against him- not much of a 'home field' advantage for the state's Governor.
-As for Palin, well, all I can say is Goldwater.
A key fact in Virginia
Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell are a pretty popular pair of candidates, so much so that 14% of the electorate in Virginia has a positive opinion of both of them. That might not sound like a lot but in this highly polarized nation that's actually pretty good. In New Jersey less than 4% of voters like both the Democratic and Republican choices for Governor.
Here's an amazing fact about those folks who like both candidates: they support McDonnell right now by a margin of 69-25. If the race was tied among those voters it would be tied overall.
Getting the Obama coalition- African Americans and young voters- out to the polls may be the biggest key to victory for Deeds this fall but when it comes to winning over swing voters these are the folks he needs to persuade.
These voters like Mark Warner (60% approval compared to 57% overall) and Tim Kaine (52% approval compared to 49% overall) more than the electorate as a whole. But they like Barack Obama (39% approval compared to 48% overall) less. 41% are independents, 36% are Republicans, and 23% are Democrats.
In other words these are the same sorts of folks whose votes were crucial to the Democratic victories in the last two races for Governor. And they do like Creigh Deeds, they just aren't committed to voting for him right now. His ability to either convince them that they like him more than they do McDonnell- or that they shouldn't actually like McDonnell- will be key to his prospects for victory this fall.
Here's an amazing fact about those folks who like both candidates: they support McDonnell right now by a margin of 69-25. If the race was tied among those voters it would be tied overall.
Getting the Obama coalition- African Americans and young voters- out to the polls may be the biggest key to victory for Deeds this fall but when it comes to winning over swing voters these are the folks he needs to persuade.
These voters like Mark Warner (60% approval compared to 57% overall) and Tim Kaine (52% approval compared to 49% overall) more than the electorate as a whole. But they like Barack Obama (39% approval compared to 48% overall) less. 41% are independents, 36% are Republicans, and 23% are Democrats.
In other words these are the same sorts of folks whose votes were crucial to the Democratic victories in the last two races for Governor. And they do like Creigh Deeds, they just aren't committed to voting for him right now. His ability to either convince them that they like him more than they do McDonnell- or that they shouldn't actually like McDonnell- will be key to his prospects for victory this fall.
Coleman hurt by recount
More than half of Minnesota voters now have an unfavorable opinion of Norm Coleman following the protracted recount for his Senate seat, and it's harming his prospects for a future Gubernatorial campaign.
52% of voters in the state view Coleman negatively with 38% having a positive take on him. His numbers are predictably polarized with 72% of Republicans but only 10% of Democrats saying they like him, and independents split 49/37 against him as well.
Coleman trails two out of the three potential Democratic candidates we tested him against for Governor. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak led 43-37 and former Senator Mark Dayton led 41-39 while Coleman held the 42-34 advantage against House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher.
54% of respondents indicated that the way Coleman handled the recount made them less likely to support him in any future campaign, while 26% said it made them more likely to do so and 20% said it made no difference.
Coleman's relative competitiveness against the trio of Democrats we tested shows that it's not impossible that he could succeed in a future campaign, but it's never good when a politician trails someone with considerably less name recognition than him and there's not much doubt he's been hurt by dragging out the recount. You have to wonder how much better his future prospects would be if he had conceded in January and voters perceived him as taking the high road for the good of the state.
Full results here
52% of voters in the state view Coleman negatively with 38% having a positive take on him. His numbers are predictably polarized with 72% of Republicans but only 10% of Democrats saying they like him, and independents split 49/37 against him as well.
Coleman trails two out of the three potential Democratic candidates we tested him against for Governor. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak led 43-37 and former Senator Mark Dayton led 41-39 while Coleman held the 42-34 advantage against House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher.
54% of respondents indicated that the way Coleman handled the recount made them less likely to support him in any future campaign, while 26% said it made them more likely to do so and 20% said it made no difference.
Coleman's relative competitiveness against the trio of Democrats we tested shows that it's not impossible that he could succeed in a future campaign, but it's never good when a politician trails someone with considerably less name recognition than him and there's not much doubt he's been hurt by dragging out the recount. You have to wonder how much better his future prospects would be if he had conceded in January and voters perceived him as taking the high road for the good of the state.
Full results here
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Palin numbers send mixed messages
Our newest national poll finds that Sarah Palin has actually gained in popularity but hurt her prospects for some day being elected President since announcing she will resign early as Governor of Alaska last week.
46% of Americans view Palin favorably, with 45% holding a negative opinion of her. In monthly surveys conducted between April and June her favorable rating was in the range of 42-43%.
The slight increase in popularity is fueled by the number of Republicans with a positive view of her increasing from 75 to 79%. She is static with independents and slightly down with Democrats.
When it comes to whether she's fit to be President though, 55% of voters in the country say no with just 37% in the affirmative. And asked specifically how her early resignation affects their inclination to some day support her for the White House, 57% of respondents say it makes them less likely to do so compared to 30% who say it makes them more likely to vote for her.
Here are some other key findings from the poll:
-Only 19% of moderates think Palin is fit to be President.
-She has a +8 net favorability rating with men but a -6 one with women.
-Despite her overall popularity with Republicans only 68% of them think she is cut out to be chief executive.
-Among voters with a favorable opinion of her 21% do not say she is fit to be President. Among voters with an unfavorable opinion of her only 1% say she is fit to be President. Both of these numbers present problems for Palin. The first one shows that even among a decent chunk of voters who like her they don't think she's suited to be leader of the free world. The second one shows that there's little hope of her earning the respect of her detractors. For instance many Democrats, while holding an unfavorable opinion of John McCain, would still say that he is fit to be President. But when it comes to Palin they don't like her or take her particularly seriously.
What does it mean? She's absolutely beloved by the party base and there's no doubt she can be a hit for years to come at fundraisers and GOTV rallies. And she may even be popular enough with Republicans to score the party's nomination in 2012 if she wants it. But national polls we conducted between March and June showed her trailing Barack Obama by an average of 16 points, worse than Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and even Newt Gingrich. And the numbers within this most recent poll would seem to further confirm that barring some major rehabilitation of her image, nominating her in 2012 would be a GOP death wish.
I doubt she'll run in 2012 but if she does my guess is that she only ends up getting nominated if Barack Obama's reelection seems inevitable and Republicans just want to vote for someone who makes them feel good, ala Barry Goldwater in 1964. If they think they have a real chance of winning they'll probably nominate someone who is perceived to be more electable.
We're also going to be looking at perceptions of Palin in some individual states over the next few weeks, beginning with Minnesota on Friday.
Full results here
46% of Americans view Palin favorably, with 45% holding a negative opinion of her. In monthly surveys conducted between April and June her favorable rating was in the range of 42-43%.
The slight increase in popularity is fueled by the number of Republicans with a positive view of her increasing from 75 to 79%. She is static with independents and slightly down with Democrats.
When it comes to whether she's fit to be President though, 55% of voters in the country say no with just 37% in the affirmative. And asked specifically how her early resignation affects their inclination to some day support her for the White House, 57% of respondents say it makes them less likely to do so compared to 30% who say it makes them more likely to vote for her.
Here are some other key findings from the poll:
-Only 19% of moderates think Palin is fit to be President.
-She has a +8 net favorability rating with men but a -6 one with women.
-Despite her overall popularity with Republicans only 68% of them think she is cut out to be chief executive.
-Among voters with a favorable opinion of her 21% do not say she is fit to be President. Among voters with an unfavorable opinion of her only 1% say she is fit to be President. Both of these numbers present problems for Palin. The first one shows that even among a decent chunk of voters who like her they don't think she's suited to be leader of the free world. The second one shows that there's little hope of her earning the respect of her detractors. For instance many Democrats, while holding an unfavorable opinion of John McCain, would still say that he is fit to be President. But when it comes to Palin they don't like her or take her particularly seriously.
What does it mean? She's absolutely beloved by the party base and there's no doubt she can be a hit for years to come at fundraisers and GOTV rallies. And she may even be popular enough with Republicans to score the party's nomination in 2012 if she wants it. But national polls we conducted between March and June showed her trailing Barack Obama by an average of 16 points, worse than Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and even Newt Gingrich. And the numbers within this most recent poll would seem to further confirm that barring some major rehabilitation of her image, nominating her in 2012 would be a GOP death wish.
I doubt she'll run in 2012 but if she does my guess is that she only ends up getting nominated if Barack Obama's reelection seems inevitable and Republicans just want to vote for someone who makes them feel good, ala Barry Goldwater in 1964. If they think they have a real chance of winning they'll probably nominate someone who is perceived to be more electable.
We're also going to be looking at perceptions of Palin in some individual states over the next few weeks, beginning with Minnesota on Friday.
Full results here
Allen-Webb Redux?
Yesterday Ben Smith reported that George Allen has a book out next year and wondered if it's the start of a political comeback.
If he wanted to get his old Senate seat back from Jim Webb I think it would be a pretty competitive race. Last summer we tested an Allen-Webb rematch and found it basically a tie, with Webb leading 45-43. Webb's approval rating at that point was 44%, and the poll we put out this morning found it in basically the same place, 46%.
Given that Webb's fortunes haven't changed one way or the other in the last year I have to imagine Allen would still poll pretty competitively with him- I think we'll take a look at it on our next Virginia poll.
If he wanted to get his old Senate seat back from Jim Webb I think it would be a pretty competitive race. Last summer we tested an Allen-Webb rematch and found it basically a tie, with Webb leading 45-43. Webb's approval rating at that point was 44%, and the poll we put out this morning found it in basically the same place, 46%.
Given that Webb's fortunes haven't changed one way or the other in the last year I have to imagine Allen would still poll pretty competitively with him- I think we'll take a look at it on our next Virginia poll.
Interesting Civitas Findings
If you thought the Mike Easley saga might be what finally got voters in North Carolina to think it's the Democrats who are corrupt rather than the Republicans, Civitas' latest poll would tell you otherwise. 41% of respondents said Democrats are best equipped for fighting corruption while just 25% said it was the Republicans. Jack Abramoff and company evidently cast a very wide shadow on the GOP that has affected perceptions well beyond the 2006 general election.
They also found that 54% of voters think the state is on the wrong track while only 33% think it's going in the right direction...yet two questions later folks said by a 41-36 margin that if there was an election today they would vote Democratic for the legislature. I think a lot of baseline conditions right now are very bad for Democrats to keep control next year- more than anything the simple fact that unpopular things are going to have to be done to balance the budget and as the party in power they're going to be responsible. But as long as Republicans just put forth the shrilly negative message of leaders like Phil Berger and Paul Stam they might not be able to capitalize on the big opportunity they ought to have in 2010.
The best news for Democrats in this poll? When it comes to creating jobs and growing the economy respondents favor them 48-33 over the GOP. And as long as that remains the biggest issue for the electorate and voters continue to feel that way, the party will be alright.
They also found that 54% of voters think the state is on the wrong track while only 33% think it's going in the right direction...yet two questions later folks said by a 41-36 margin that if there was an election today they would vote Democratic for the legislature. I think a lot of baseline conditions right now are very bad for Democrats to keep control next year- more than anything the simple fact that unpopular things are going to have to be done to balance the budget and as the party in power they're going to be responsible. But as long as Republicans just put forth the shrilly negative message of leaders like Phil Berger and Paul Stam they might not be able to capitalize on the big opportunity they ought to have in 2010.
The best news for Democrats in this poll? When it comes to creating jobs and growing the economy respondents favor them 48-33 over the GOP. And as long as that remains the biggest issue for the electorate and voters continue to feel that way, the party will be alright.
Virginia Politician Approvals
A day after Quinnipiac found Barack Obama's approval rating in Ohio at 49%, we find it at 48% in Virginia.
The caveat here is that we are measuring his numbers among likely general election voters for this year- in the context of the race for Governor- rather than all registered voters or likely voters for a Presidential election. Turnout from key groups that support Obama like African Americans and voters under 30 seem likely to turn out at diminished levels from 2008 and that impacts these numbers.
Taking that into consideration, the numbers still aren't real good. They show a high level of polarization we find in every state- 95% of Democrats but only 9% of Republicans giving him good marks. But he's also doing pretty poorly with independents, as only 38% say he's doing well and 52% disapprove.
Some might take these numbers and say that having Obama campaign for him wouldn't do Creigh Deeds much good. But the real takeaway is that Obama's presence might be just what is needed to generate interest in the Gubernatorial race among his base voters who came out last fall but usually don't in an off year election.
Tim Kaine's approval rating is 49%, actually up from 46% when PPP last measured it in June 2008, a rare Governor who's seen his numbers improve during a period when many have plummeted. For sake of comparison the approval numbers for Governors in other states with more than ten electoral votes where we have polled in the last six months have been 30% for Bev Perdue in North Carolina, 34% for Jim Doyle in Wisconsin, 36% for Jon Corzine in New Jersey, 41% for Rick Perry in Texas, 43% for Ted Strickland in Ohio, 46% for Tim Pawlenty in Minnesota, and an identical 49% for Pat Quinn in Illinois. So grading on a curve he is really doing well.
Mark Warner retains a high level of popularity as well. His approval rating of 57% is the fourth best of 34 Senators PPP has polled on across the country in the last year, trailing only Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, and Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas.
Jim Webb's approval rating is 46%, pretty much unchanged from 44% when PPP last looked at it it in June of last year. That's about average across all the Senators we've polled on.
Full results here
The caveat here is that we are measuring his numbers among likely general election voters for this year- in the context of the race for Governor- rather than all registered voters or likely voters for a Presidential election. Turnout from key groups that support Obama like African Americans and voters under 30 seem likely to turn out at diminished levels from 2008 and that impacts these numbers.
Taking that into consideration, the numbers still aren't real good. They show a high level of polarization we find in every state- 95% of Democrats but only 9% of Republicans giving him good marks. But he's also doing pretty poorly with independents, as only 38% say he's doing well and 52% disapprove.
Some might take these numbers and say that having Obama campaign for him wouldn't do Creigh Deeds much good. But the real takeaway is that Obama's presence might be just what is needed to generate interest in the Gubernatorial race among his base voters who came out last fall but usually don't in an off year election.
Tim Kaine's approval rating is 49%, actually up from 46% when PPP last measured it in June 2008, a rare Governor who's seen his numbers improve during a period when many have plummeted. For sake of comparison the approval numbers for Governors in other states with more than ten electoral votes where we have polled in the last six months have been 30% for Bev Perdue in North Carolina, 34% for Jim Doyle in Wisconsin, 36% for Jon Corzine in New Jersey, 41% for Rick Perry in Texas, 43% for Ted Strickland in Ohio, 46% for Tim Pawlenty in Minnesota, and an identical 49% for Pat Quinn in Illinois. So grading on a curve he is really doing well.
Mark Warner retains a high level of popularity as well. His approval rating of 57% is the fourth best of 34 Senators PPP has polled on across the country in the last year, trailing only Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, and Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas.
Jim Webb's approval rating is 46%, pretty much unchanged from 44% when PPP last looked at it it in June of last year. That's about average across all the Senators we've polled on.
Full results here
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Obama's Decline with Independents
It's been seven weeks now since we put out any poll- national or state level- that showed Barack Obama's approval rating over 50% with independents. Tomorrow's Virginia release on politician approvals in the state finds Obama with just 38% of voters in that group giving him good marks to 52% disapproving.
Here's how Obama fared among independents in our last eight polls, listed in reverse chronological order:
Here's how Obama fared among independents in our last eight polls, listed in reverse chronological order:
| State | Obama’s Numbers with Independents |
| | 38/52 |
| | 43/46 |
| | 49/39 |
| | 49/43 |
| National | 46/49 |
| | 49/45 |
| | 40/49 |
| | 33/53 |
Fading Bounces
The lead Bob McDonnell showed in our poll today would seem to indicate any bounce Creigh Deeds received from the primary has faded. Using the example of the North Carolina Senate race last year between Kay Hagan and Elizabeth Dole that's to be expected.
A month before the primary last year polls showed Elizabeth Dole leading Kay Hagan by an average of ten points. Five polls conducted in the first couple weeks after the primary, when Hagan's ads were fresh in the voters' minds and she had momentum from her victory, showed her coming within an average of three points of Dole. A trio of polls conducted three to five weeks after the primary though showed Dole back up to an average lead of 11 points. So basically she got a seven point bump immediately after winning the primary and then saw it fade away.
How does Deeds compare? The last two polls taken before his primary victory showed him trailing McDonnell by an average of eight points. Three polls conducted in the week or so after he took the nomination showed him leading by an average of three points for a slightly larger bump than Hagan got of 11 points. Now a month after the primary he's trailing by six, pretty much where he was before.
One thing Dole and McDonnell have in common is that they seemingly got freaked out by their post-primary polling numbers and went on the air in June, much earlier than usual and much earlier than their opponents. While the early summer ad buy certainly helped Dole's poll numbers in July and may have helped McDonnell's in this survey, it didn't create any long term momentum for Dole and she ended up wishing she still had that money in the fall- whether the same thing happens to McDonnell remains to be seen.
A month before the primary last year polls showed Elizabeth Dole leading Kay Hagan by an average of ten points. Five polls conducted in the first couple weeks after the primary, when Hagan's ads were fresh in the voters' minds and she had momentum from her victory, showed her coming within an average of three points of Dole. A trio of polls conducted three to five weeks after the primary though showed Dole back up to an average lead of 11 points. So basically she got a seven point bump immediately after winning the primary and then saw it fade away.
How does Deeds compare? The last two polls taken before his primary victory showed him trailing McDonnell by an average of eight points. Three polls conducted in the week or so after he took the nomination showed him leading by an average of three points for a slightly larger bump than Hagan got of 11 points. Now a month after the primary he's trailing by six, pretty much where he was before.
One thing Dole and McDonnell have in common is that they seemingly got freaked out by their post-primary polling numbers and went on the air in June, much earlier than usual and much earlier than their opponents. While the early summer ad buy certainly helped Dole's poll numbers in July and may have helped McDonnell's in this survey, it didn't create any long term momentum for Dole and she ended up wishing she still had that money in the fall- whether the same thing happens to McDonnell remains to be seen.
McDonnell leads in Virginia
Creigh Deeds' post-primary bounce in Virginia appears to have worn out after a month off the airwaves, and Bob McDonnell now holds a 49-43 lead in the contest to become the state's next Governor.
The candidates are doing about an equally good job of uniting their parties around them, but McDonnell has a 54-33 advantage among independents fueling his overall advantage.
McDonnell and Deeds are both popular with the electorate. 51% view the Republican favorably with just 32% holding a negative opinion of him, while 48% have a positive take on the Democrat to 29% having an unfavorable one.
Just 3% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of Deeds, indicating there is basically no lingering resentment from the primary.
Despite trailing, there are several bright spots for Deeds in the numbers. He currently has just a 68-16 lead among African Americans. Democrats frequently under poll with that demographic this far out from an election but usually end up getting 85% or more of that vote come November. There are a lot more undecided Democrats than Republicans, which makes those voters more inclined to end up in the Deeds camp. Deeds' supporters are also a little more committed than McDonnell's, with 90% of them saying they will definitely vote for him while just 82% say that for McDonnell.
There are some signs of concern too though. We're detecting little interest in the race right now from black voters or young voters, both groups that were overwhelmingly supportive of Barack Obama and key to his success in the state last year. We currently project black turnout at 16% of the electorate, down from 20% last year, and voters under 30 at 8%, down from 21% last year. Getting those groups excited about his candidacy and out to the polls will be key to Deeds' prospects.
The race is in a very similar position to 2005. The poll released that year closest to today's date of July 7th showed Jerry Kilgore with a 6 point lead identical to the one we found last week. The question now is whether McDonnell can hold onto this lead better than Kilgore did, or if Deeds will be able to replicate Tim Kaine's success in peaking at just the right time. He certainly did that in the primary.
In the race for Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling leads Jody Wagner 46-40, and for Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is up 45-38 on Steve Shannon.
Full results here
The candidates are doing about an equally good job of uniting their parties around them, but McDonnell has a 54-33 advantage among independents fueling his overall advantage.
McDonnell and Deeds are both popular with the electorate. 51% view the Republican favorably with just 32% holding a negative opinion of him, while 48% have a positive take on the Democrat to 29% having an unfavorable one.
Just 3% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of Deeds, indicating there is basically no lingering resentment from the primary.
Despite trailing, there are several bright spots for Deeds in the numbers. He currently has just a 68-16 lead among African Americans. Democrats frequently under poll with that demographic this far out from an election but usually end up getting 85% or more of that vote come November. There are a lot more undecided Democrats than Republicans, which makes those voters more inclined to end up in the Deeds camp. Deeds' supporters are also a little more committed than McDonnell's, with 90% of them saying they will definitely vote for him while just 82% say that for McDonnell.
There are some signs of concern too though. We're detecting little interest in the race right now from black voters or young voters, both groups that were overwhelmingly supportive of Barack Obama and key to his success in the state last year. We currently project black turnout at 16% of the electorate, down from 20% last year, and voters under 30 at 8%, down from 21% last year. Getting those groups excited about his candidacy and out to the polls will be key to Deeds' prospects.
The race is in a very similar position to 2005. The poll released that year closest to today's date of July 7th showed Jerry Kilgore with a 6 point lead identical to the one we found last week. The question now is whether McDonnell can hold onto this lead better than Kilgore did, or if Deeds will be able to replicate Tim Kaine's success in peaking at just the right time. He certainly did that in the primary.
In the race for Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling leads Jody Wagner 46-40, and for Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is up 45-38 on Steve Shannon.
Full results here
Monday, July 6, 2009
Would Palin be helpful in Virginia?
Michael Steele says he wants Sarah Palin to help out in Virginia this fall.
Is that a good idea?
We polled voters in the state after Palin had been on the ticket for a month last fall and 46% of them said her presence on the ticket made them less likely to vote for John McCain, while only 37% said it made them more likely to do so. From the time she was selected to the time we conducted that poll we showed Barack Obama's lead in the state rising from two points to eight.
On the Virginia poll we have coming out tomorrow Bob McDonnell is doing quite well among independents. But last year they said by a margin of 44/36 that Palin's selection made them less likely to vote Republican.
She might be helpful in raising money, but if I was Bob McDonnell I think I'd tell her to keep away from public appearances in Virginia...it would have significant potential for creating a negative distraction from his campaign's message and could turn off voters in the middle he needs to win.
Is that a good idea?
We polled voters in the state after Palin had been on the ticket for a month last fall and 46% of them said her presence on the ticket made them less likely to vote for John McCain, while only 37% said it made them more likely to do so. From the time she was selected to the time we conducted that poll we showed Barack Obama's lead in the state rising from two points to eight.
On the Virginia poll we have coming out tomorrow Bob McDonnell is doing quite well among independents. But last year they said by a margin of 44/36 that Palin's selection made them less likely to vote Republican.
She might be helpful in raising money, but if I was Bob McDonnell I think I'd tell her to keep away from public appearances in Virginia...it would have significant potential for creating a negative distraction from his campaign's message and could turn off voters in the middle he needs to win.
Interesting South Carolina Poll Anomaly
Something within the crosstabs of a poll SurveyUSA conducted in South Carolina last week really caught my attention- Democrats are more likely to say Andre Bauer is prepared to be Governor than Republicans.
Overall 20% of South Carolinians say Bauer is completely prepared to take the top spot, while 38% say he is somewhat prepared and 34% say he is not prepared.
Despite Bauer's party label 41% of Republicans say he is not prepared, while only 28% of Democrats say so. And while 25% of Democrats say he's completely prepared, only 18% of Republicans do.
I think part of the reason for this is probably that Republicans are less inclined to support Mark Sanford resigning, so saying that Bauer is not ready to be Governor could help bolster their argument- Democrats on the other hand can justify supporting Sanford's resignation by saying Bauer is ready to take his office.
But I still don't think the numbers bode too well for Bauer's chances in a Republican primary next year.
Overall 20% of South Carolinians say Bauer is completely prepared to take the top spot, while 38% say he is somewhat prepared and 34% say he is not prepared.
Despite Bauer's party label 41% of Republicans say he is not prepared, while only 28% of Democrats say so. And while 25% of Democrats say he's completely prepared, only 18% of Republicans do.
I think part of the reason for this is probably that Republicans are less inclined to support Mark Sanford resigning, so saying that Bauer is not ready to be Governor could help bolster their argument- Democrats on the other hand can justify supporting Sanford's resignation by saying Bauer is ready to take his office.
But I still don't think the numbers bode too well for Bauer's chances in a Republican primary next year.
Latest Civitas
Richard Burr's political handlers might need to go crying to the DC media establishment again because those meanies at Civitas, who asked us to take some time out on the 4th of July to remember Jesse Helms, put out yet another poll showing him with shoddy numbers toward the end of last week.
They found just 31% of voters in the state with a favorable opinion of Burr, while 19% view him unfavorably. Those numbers are a drop from the last time they did his favorability in April, when it was at 33/17. They notably find the same lack of Republican enthusiasm for Burr that we do, with only 42% of voters within his own party viewing him positively. With this race at the top of the ballot next year, it could hurt GOP turnout if the party faithful are not excited about Burr.
They also not surprisingly find pretty low name recognition for Mike McIntyre and Elaine Marshall. With Roy Cooper out of the mix I really think any Democrat who runs is pretty much going to start in the same position- there's not a whole lot of difference in initial popularity between McIntyre, Marshall, and the even less well known Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis. That's why getting a 'name' candidate at this point should be less important than getting a good candidate, especially if this race ends up being a referendum on what Burr has accomplished during 16 years in Washington.
They found just 31% of voters in the state with a favorable opinion of Burr, while 19% view him unfavorably. Those numbers are a drop from the last time they did his favorability in April, when it was at 33/17. They notably find the same lack of Republican enthusiasm for Burr that we do, with only 42% of voters within his own party viewing him positively. With this race at the top of the ballot next year, it could hurt GOP turnout if the party faithful are not excited about Burr.
They also not surprisingly find pretty low name recognition for Mike McIntyre and Elaine Marshall. With Roy Cooper out of the mix I really think any Democrat who runs is pretty much going to start in the same position- there's not a whole lot of difference in initial popularity between McIntyre, Marshall, and the even less well known Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis. That's why getting a 'name' candidate at this point should be less important than getting a good candidate, especially if this race ends up being a referendum on what Burr has accomplished during 16 years in Washington.
On Deck This Week...
It's going to be a busy one.
First out of the box will be our second general election poll for the Virginia Governor's race. Think you missed something? We first polled Creigh Deeds against Bob McDonnell over a year ago, and found the Republican with a 32-27 advantage. We'll have that tomorrow along with numbers on the races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. Then Wednesday we'll have approvals for Barack Obama, Jim Webb, Tim Kaine, and the still very popular Mark Warner.
Also Wednesday, or maybe not until Thursday, we'll have some national numbers looking at how perceptions of Sarah Palin have changed since her surprise announcement on Friday.
And toward the end of the week we're going to have Minnesota polling looking at the fall out from the Senate race- are folks happy Al Franken's taking office, has Norm Coleman been damaged for a possible Gubernatorial race next year, and heck how does Tim Pawlenty do against Barack Obama?
Stay tuned- and our big monthly North Carolina poll is this weekend so if you have any suggestions of questions for that feel free to leave them in the comments.
First out of the box will be our second general election poll for the Virginia Governor's race. Think you missed something? We first polled Creigh Deeds against Bob McDonnell over a year ago, and found the Republican with a 32-27 advantage. We'll have that tomorrow along with numbers on the races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. Then Wednesday we'll have approvals for Barack Obama, Jim Webb, Tim Kaine, and the still very popular Mark Warner.
Also Wednesday, or maybe not until Thursday, we'll have some national numbers looking at how perceptions of Sarah Palin have changed since her surprise announcement on Friday.
And toward the end of the week we're going to have Minnesota polling looking at the fall out from the Senate race- are folks happy Al Franken's taking office, has Norm Coleman been damaged for a possible Gubernatorial race next year, and heck how does Tim Pawlenty do against Barack Obama?
Stay tuned- and our big monthly North Carolina poll is this weekend so if you have any suggestions of questions for that feel free to leave them in the comments.
Friday, July 3, 2009
Palin bid a long shot
With the news today that Sarah Palin is resigning, possibly to focus on a 2012 Presidential bid, what are her chances?
For the Republican nomination, at least at this early point, pretty good. For the general election, not so much.
Monthly national PPP surveys looking at the 2012 contest for President have consistently found Palin as the most popular of the likely Republican candidates with Republican voters. Around 75% of them have a positive opinion of her, ranking her above Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich every time we've polled it.
When it comes to the general election though, she does the worst of the GOP contenders against Barack Obama. Our four surveys on it so far have shown her trailing the President by an average of 16 points nationally, an outcome that would likely give Obama well over 400 electoral votes.
Candidates can certainly grow a lot from polling conducted three years before an election- Obama himself did. The problem for Palin is that most voters have already formed an opinion about her. On average our polls have shown that only 9% of the electorate doesn't know enough about the former Vice Presidential candidate to view her either positively or negatively. That doesn't give her a lot of room to define herself as a fresh face to any meaningful swath of voters.
For her to get elected in 2012 she would have to change the minds of a significant number of independent and Democratic votes about her- and it's a lot easier to make a positive first impression than it is to change a negative one once it's already been formed.
It's going to give Republican voters some interesting choices- they like Palin the most, but many may also realize that nominating her is a general election death wish. More than usual this will set up a choice between likability and electability, as Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and even Newt Gingrich fare better against Obama in our polling.
My guess is that Palin never holds elected office again.
For the Republican nomination, at least at this early point, pretty good. For the general election, not so much.
Monthly national PPP surveys looking at the 2012 contest for President have consistently found Palin as the most popular of the likely Republican candidates with Republican voters. Around 75% of them have a positive opinion of her, ranking her above Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich every time we've polled it.
When it comes to the general election though, she does the worst of the GOP contenders against Barack Obama. Our four surveys on it so far have shown her trailing the President by an average of 16 points nationally, an outcome that would likely give Obama well over 400 electoral votes.
Candidates can certainly grow a lot from polling conducted three years before an election- Obama himself did. The problem for Palin is that most voters have already formed an opinion about her. On average our polls have shown that only 9% of the electorate doesn't know enough about the former Vice Presidential candidate to view her either positively or negatively. That doesn't give her a lot of room to define herself as a fresh face to any meaningful swath of voters.
For her to get elected in 2012 she would have to change the minds of a significant number of independent and Democratic votes about her- and it's a lot easier to make a positive first impression than it is to change a negative one once it's already been formed.
It's going to give Republican voters some interesting choices- they like Palin the most, but many may also realize that nominating her is a general election death wish. More than usual this will set up a choice between likability and electability, as Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and even Newt Gingrich fare better against Obama in our polling.
My guess is that Palin never holds elected office again.
Interesting Findings from Pew
Last week Pew put out a new report related to polling in the 2008 election. A couple findings I thought were particularly interesting:
-On state level Presidential polls the average error for live interviewers was 1.6%. For IVR polls it was 1.5%. On all state level polls the average error for live interviewers was 2.1% and for IVR it was 1.7%. The difference between live interviewer and automated outfits is not large, but the automated ones were slightly more accurate. It's just another piece of evidence that as much as some in the mainstream media might want to deny it, automated polls are just as good- or maybe even better- at calling the horse race than traditional ones.
-The other interesting finding was that on state level Presidential polls with some error, 74 out of 126 of them overestimated John McCain. And on all polls 125 out of 211 overestimated the Republican candidate. For all the accusations from the right of pollsters being biased toward Democrats, the data doesn't back up that assertion.
-On state level Presidential polls the average error for live interviewers was 1.6%. For IVR polls it was 1.5%. On all state level polls the average error for live interviewers was 2.1% and for IVR it was 1.7%. The difference between live interviewer and automated outfits is not large, but the automated ones were slightly more accurate. It's just another piece of evidence that as much as some in the mainstream media might want to deny it, automated polls are just as good- or maybe even better- at calling the horse race than traditional ones.
-The other interesting finding was that on state level Presidential polls with some error, 74 out of 126 of them overestimated John McCain. And on all polls 125 out of 211 overestimated the Republican candidate. For all the accusations from the right of pollsters being biased toward Democrats, the data doesn't back up that assertion.
Obama's Popularity by Region
We have five monthly polls now looking at Barack Obama's approval rating in North Carolina, and cumulatively they give a good a gauge of where he's popular and where he's not.
His best numbers by far, not surprisingly, are in the Triangle. 58% of voters there approve of his job performance while 37% disapprove. Generally speaking the more urban an area is the more popular the President is going to be there, and it was also the only region in the state where he won last fall, his margin there big enough to make up for narrow losses in most of the rest of the state. The Triangle was last year and will continue to be the key to Obama's success in North Carolina.
He's least popular in the Mountains, where only 47% approve of his performance so far with 45% disapproving. That area is pretty conservative, but there are also some simple demographic reasons for Obama's lack of support there- it has fewer African Americans and fewer young people than any other place in the state, and those tend to be the groups most supportive of him. Democrats may get frustrated with Heath Shuler's deviations from the party line, but these numbers help to explain it.
Other than the Triangle Obama is getting his best numbers in metro Charlotte and in northeastern North Carolina, where he has identical 54/39 ratings. He's at 52/41 in southeastern North Carolina, and gets his second lowest numbers in the Triad at 48/44.
Obama's political standing in North Carolina now really isn't any different than it was in November. Just over half of the population supports him- he hasn't built on his narrow victory at the polls last fall but he hasn't lost any of his support either. This may never be a 'safe' state for Obama but his standing here is a lot better than we would probably have guessed a year ago at this time.
His best numbers by far, not surprisingly, are in the Triangle. 58% of voters there approve of his job performance while 37% disapprove. Generally speaking the more urban an area is the more popular the President is going to be there, and it was also the only region in the state where he won last fall, his margin there big enough to make up for narrow losses in most of the rest of the state. The Triangle was last year and will continue to be the key to Obama's success in North Carolina.
He's least popular in the Mountains, where only 47% approve of his performance so far with 45% disapproving. That area is pretty conservative, but there are also some simple demographic reasons for Obama's lack of support there- it has fewer African Americans and fewer young people than any other place in the state, and those tend to be the groups most supportive of him. Democrats may get frustrated with Heath Shuler's deviations from the party line, but these numbers help to explain it.
Other than the Triangle Obama is getting his best numbers in metro Charlotte and in northeastern North Carolina, where he has identical 54/39 ratings. He's at 52/41 in southeastern North Carolina, and gets his second lowest numbers in the Triad at 48/44.
Obama's political standing in North Carolina now really isn't any different than it was in November. Just over half of the population supports him- he hasn't built on his narrow victory at the polls last fall but he hasn't lost any of his support either. This may never be a 'safe' state for Obama but his standing here is a lot better than we would probably have guessed a year ago at this time.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Sotomayor Polling
I think it's interesting that Rasmussen's poll yesterday showing just 37% of the country in support of Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation to the Supreme Court hasn't received more attention.
We've only polled on Sotomayor in North Carolina but we found pretty similar numbers, with 39% favoring Senate approval here a month ago.
This definitely seems like something where folks might be more comfortable expressing opposition to the nomination on an automated poll than a live interviewer one.
I don't think it means Obama's choice is a bad one- this doesn't seem likely to be a big issue at the polls in either 2010 or 2012 even with those not enthused about the nomination, and women and Hispanics seem by and large happy with it. But I'm not sure I buy into the conventional wisdom that Sotomayor was a broadly popular pick.
We've only polled on Sotomayor in North Carolina but we found pretty similar numbers, with 39% favoring Senate approval here a month ago.
This definitely seems like something where folks might be more comfortable expressing opposition to the nomination on an automated poll than a live interviewer one.
I don't think it means Obama's choice is a bad one- this doesn't seem likely to be a big issue at the polls in either 2010 or 2012 even with those not enthused about the nomination, and women and Hispanics seem by and large happy with it. But I'm not sure I buy into the conventional wisdom that Sotomayor was a broadly popular pick.
Obama's National Approval by Party and Ideology
The below chart shows Barack Obama's approval nationally by party and ideology groups from our poll a couple weeks ago. No huge surprises. The biggest group where he probably needs to prop back up his standing- and where he's lost the most support in the last few months at least according to our polling- is among conservative Democrats.
Take the liberal Republicans numbers with a trough of salt- the 100% approval comes because he's popular with all 7 of them that we interviewed!
Take the liberal Republicans numbers with a trough of salt- the 100% approval comes because he's popular with all 7 of them that we interviewed!
| Group | Obama Approval | Percentage of Electorate Group Accounts For |
| Liberal Republicans | 100% | 1% |
| Liberal Democrats | 92% | 13% |
| Liberal Independents | 88% | 2% |
| Moderate Democrats | 86% | 23% |
| Moderate Independents | 54% | 14% |
| Conservative Democrats | 49% | 7% |
| Moderate Republicans | 41% | 9% |
| Conservative Independents | 20% | 8% |
| Conservative Republicans | 5% | 23% |
Notes on New Jersey
-Barack Obama's approval in New Jersey might not be as good as it was earlier in the year, but it's still to Jon Corzine's definite advantage to have the President campaign for him. Among voters who approve of Obama's job performance Corzine is currently leading Chris Christie 70-20...winning over most of the 30% of the electorate that approves of Obama but isn't currently planning to vote for him is going to be pretty integral to Corzine's chances at reelection. Among voters who disapprove of Obama, Christie has an 89-6 advantage.
-Voters in New Jersey are remarkably polarized when it comes to their assessments of these candidates. Fewer than 4% of respondents to our poll said they hold a favorable opinion of both Christie and Corzine. We're in the field in Virginia right now too, and it's safe to say there are markedly more voters there who like both Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell. 8% of New Jersey voters have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, while most voters fall in the 'like one and not the other' camp.
-Voters in New Jersey are remarkably polarized when it comes to their assessments of these candidates. Fewer than 4% of respondents to our poll said they hold a favorable opinion of both Christie and Corzine. We're in the field in Virginia right now too, and it's safe to say there are markedly more voters there who like both Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell. 8% of New Jersey voters have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, while most voters fall in the 'like one and not the other' camp.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Growth with implications at the polls
New census numbers this week show that from July 1, 2007 to July 1, 2008 four North Carolina cities ranked in the top 25 nationally for population growth- Cary in third, Raleigh in eighth, Durham in 16th, and Charlotte in 23rd.
It is not an exaggeration to say this helped make the difference in Barack Obama's winning the state last year. We found at one point during the campaign that folks migrating to the state were supportive of Obama at a clip 13 points greater than life long North Carolinians. Beyond that the areas of this steep population growth- Wake, Durham, and Mecklenburg Counties- provided Obama with his three largest victories in the state last year in terms of raw votes. The new residents were a big contributor to that.
Once upon a time the conventional wisdom was that growth in the state benefited Republicans- that pendulum now seems to have turned more toward Democrats. Urban/suburban areas are going to gain legislative seats in the 2010 redistricting, and although those districts have the potential to be pretty competitive Democrats are likely to have a leg up.
Also, last year's Presidential results were a pretty clear indication of just how close this state is politically, and if next year's Senate race ends up being that tight Richard Burr's chances at reelection could come down to how well he does with voters who didn't even live here when he got elected in 2004.
Every time these growth stats come out and show North Carolina at the top of the list it's a nice reminder of what a desirable place this is to live- but the political implications are pretty meaningful too.
It is not an exaggeration to say this helped make the difference in Barack Obama's winning the state last year. We found at one point during the campaign that folks migrating to the state were supportive of Obama at a clip 13 points greater than life long North Carolinians. Beyond that the areas of this steep population growth- Wake, Durham, and Mecklenburg Counties- provided Obama with his three largest victories in the state last year in terms of raw votes. The new residents were a big contributor to that.
Once upon a time the conventional wisdom was that growth in the state benefited Republicans- that pendulum now seems to have turned more toward Democrats. Urban/suburban areas are going to gain legislative seats in the 2010 redistricting, and although those districts have the potential to be pretty competitive Democrats are likely to have a leg up.
Also, last year's Presidential results were a pretty clear indication of just how close this state is politically, and if next year's Senate race ends up being that tight Richard Burr's chances at reelection could come down to how well he does with voters who didn't even live here when he got elected in 2004.
Every time these growth stats come out and show North Carolina at the top of the list it's a nice reminder of what a desirable place this is to live- but the political implications are pretty meaningful too.
More on Obama in NJ
We wrote last week about how we were finding approval ratings for Barack Obama on a state by state basis that on average were within 1-2 points of the percentage of the vote he received in that state...and that it made sense given that the sampling we were using was the same as for an even year general electorate.
The 53% approval rating we found for Obama in New Jersey over the weekend though is a little off that trend- four points below the 57% he earned at the polls there in November.
The difference may be that in New Jersey the sampling we're using is for an odd year general electorate, since we're polling the Governor's race there. A big part of Obama's strength was his ability to get out new voters or more casual voters to the polls, and those folks would not be reflected in our Gubernatorial polling. That certainly could result in our finding lower numbers for Obama in both New Jersey and Virginia for the rest of the year.
And of course getting those folks who turned out for Obama to come out for him could be key to Jon Corzine's chances at reelection this fall. But history suggests there will be at least a 30% dropoff in turnout from last November to this November.
The 53% approval rating we found for Obama in New Jersey over the weekend though is a little off that trend- four points below the 57% he earned at the polls there in November.
The difference may be that in New Jersey the sampling we're using is for an odd year general electorate, since we're polling the Governor's race there. A big part of Obama's strength was his ability to get out new voters or more casual voters to the polls, and those folks would not be reflected in our Gubernatorial polling. That certainly could result in our finding lower numbers for Obama in both New Jersey and Virginia for the rest of the year.
And of course getting those folks who turned out for Obama to come out for him could be key to Jon Corzine's chances at reelection this fall. But history suggests there will be at least a 30% dropoff in turnout from last November to this November.
Numbers for Obama, Senators not great in Jersey
PPP finds Barack Obama's approval rating at 53% in New Jersey, a level below that found in any other public polling since he took office, and a result fitting the trend of his slowly declining numbers nationally.
As is the case in most places Obama's numbers are highly polarized on party lines, with 88% of Democrats but only 13% of Republicans giving him good reviews. Independents are pretty much split down the middle with 46% viewing his performance unfavorably and 43% giving him positive marks.
Obama continues to be very popular with the minority groups who gave him large majorities at the polls in the state last year- 85% of African Americans and 68% of Hispanics say they like the job he's doing. But among whites he's dropped into slightly negative territory with 47% disapproving to 46% approval.
Obama is a good deal more popular than the state's two Senators. Bob Menendez's numbers are particularly troubling with just 32% of respondents saying they like the job he's doing with 43% viewing it unfavorably and 25% without an opinion. Particularly striking are his numbers among independents, just 14% of whom express approval for his job performance. In other words, with Obama's approval at 43% with independents, less than one third of those who approve of the President's performance also approve of Menendez's. Independent voters almost by definition look down on excess partisanship, and his gig as head of the DSCC may be turning off some in that group.
Of course it's a long way to 2012 so it's not like Menendez has that much to worry about at this point- and there are plenty of examples in recent New Jersey history of voters expressing dislike for a politician and then reelecting him anyway. Frank Lautenberg is a good case in point- polling in 2006 showed him as one of the least popular Senators in the country and in late 2007 just 36% of voters in the state said he should be reelected. He nevertheless won an easy 56-42 victory last fall. Candidates can improve their numbers when they take to the airwaves and get to define themselves in a positive manner, and Republicans frequently just haven't nominated strong enough candidates to take advantage of some of these weak points.
Speaking of Lautenberg, his personal numbers are 41% approving and 46% disapproving.
Full results here
As is the case in most places Obama's numbers are highly polarized on party lines, with 88% of Democrats but only 13% of Republicans giving him good reviews. Independents are pretty much split down the middle with 46% viewing his performance unfavorably and 43% giving him positive marks.
Obama continues to be very popular with the minority groups who gave him large majorities at the polls in the state last year- 85% of African Americans and 68% of Hispanics say they like the job he's doing. But among whites he's dropped into slightly negative territory with 47% disapproving to 46% approval.
Obama is a good deal more popular than the state's two Senators. Bob Menendez's numbers are particularly troubling with just 32% of respondents saying they like the job he's doing with 43% viewing it unfavorably and 25% without an opinion. Particularly striking are his numbers among independents, just 14% of whom express approval for his job performance. In other words, with Obama's approval at 43% with independents, less than one third of those who approve of the President's performance also approve of Menendez's. Independent voters almost by definition look down on excess partisanship, and his gig as head of the DSCC may be turning off some in that group.
Of course it's a long way to 2012 so it's not like Menendez has that much to worry about at this point- and there are plenty of examples in recent New Jersey history of voters expressing dislike for a politician and then reelecting him anyway. Frank Lautenberg is a good case in point- polling in 2006 showed him as one of the least popular Senators in the country and in late 2007 just 36% of voters in the state said he should be reelected. He nevertheless won an easy 56-42 victory last fall. Candidates can improve their numbers when they take to the airwaves and get to define themselves in a positive manner, and Republicans frequently just haven't nominated strong enough candidates to take advantage of some of these weak points.
Speaking of Lautenberg, his personal numbers are 41% approving and 46% disapproving.
Full results here
Sanford still more popular than Perdue
A survey for Politico taken last week after the news about Mark Sanford's affair came out still showed his approval rating at 47% with South Carolina voters, a result a good deal better than any of the three polls on Bev Perdue's job performance have found this month.
I think there are a couple takeaways from that:
-Voters are more concerned about the economy than the sex lives of their politicians. And that's a good thing. Although I don't think NC voters are right to blame Perdue for the state's financial woes it's still reassuring to see that's a bigger deal for them than Sanford's personal indiscretions are for SC voters.
-Voters in both parties are hypocrites when it comes to sex scandals. 68% of Republicans in the poll still said they approved of Sanford's job performance- do you think it would have been the same if it was a Democratic politician? At the same time only 22% of Democrats gave Sanford good marks and it's a safe bet most of them would have been willing to give Bill Clinton a free ride for his moral mistakes.
-Speaking more specifically about Perdue, this comparison goes to show just how unpopular she's become- and how important it is for her to make a sustained effort to rebuild her support with the public. Going to half a dozen rallies for education funding and then retreating right back to anonymity probably isn't going to cut it.
I think there are a couple takeaways from that:
-Voters are more concerned about the economy than the sex lives of their politicians. And that's a good thing. Although I don't think NC voters are right to blame Perdue for the state's financial woes it's still reassuring to see that's a bigger deal for them than Sanford's personal indiscretions are for SC voters.
-Voters in both parties are hypocrites when it comes to sex scandals. 68% of Republicans in the poll still said they approved of Sanford's job performance- do you think it would have been the same if it was a Democratic politician? At the same time only 22% of Democrats gave Sanford good marks and it's a safe bet most of them would have been willing to give Bill Clinton a free ride for his moral mistakes.
-Speaking more specifically about Perdue, this comparison goes to show just how unpopular she's become- and how important it is for her to make a sustained effort to rebuild her support with the public. Going to half a dozen rallies for education funding and then retreating right back to anonymity probably isn't going to cut it.
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