Monday, June 28, 2010

Little Support for Perry Pres Bid

Rick Perry's been mentioned in some circles as a possible future GOP Presidential candidate, but the party's voters in his own state aren't too keen on the idea. Only 14% of Texas Republicans think Perry should run for President in 2012 while 63% think he should not and 23% are unsure. That level of interest compares unfavorably to the desire of Louisiana Republicans (48%) for Bobby Jindal to make a White House bid and South Carolina Republicans (24%) for Jim DeMint to do the same.

Tested as an actual candidate Perry finishes tied for 5th at 8% with fellow Texan Ron Paul. Newt Gingrich leads the way with 23%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 18%, Sarah Palin at 17%, and Mitt Romney at 14%.

A similar poll conducted in Pennsylvania (not including Perry) finds Palin leading with 24% to 23% for Gingrich, 20% for Huckabee, 16% for Romney, and 11% for Paul.

Takeaways from these numbers:

-Newt Gingrich increasingly looks like a very legitimate candidate should he decide to run for President in 2012. He's showing strong support across the country- he's led in California, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Texas and finished just behind in Illinois and Pennsylvania in recent polls. Gingrich may benefit from having less of a 'loser' stench to him than the other contenders- Huckabee, Palin, Romney, and Paul were all involved in losing campaigns in 2008 and Gingrich is a reminder of the time when Republicans were in charge.

-Mitt Romney is really slipping in these polls. He had the lead in both Pennsylvania and Texas the last time we polled those states but has fallen now to 4th in both. It's a sign of how fleeting 'frontrunner' status can be this early in the game- it's really not worth much because voters aren't tuned in enough for it to be particularly meaningful or sustainable.

-I say this every single time but it always bears repeating- these top four candidates are so jumbled that it's very important not to over interpret the numbers on a poll to poll basis.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Get ready for some of the same crap that bush said when he was running. Newt will sell this country out just like the rest of them. Only person fit to be president is Ron Paul.

NRH said...

When Newt Gingrich has the least amount of 'loser' stench on him from a party's slate, you know they're hurting.

The Interesting Times said...

I think the only real reason Romney has slipped in these polls is because you've included Gingrich this time.

Romney seems to suffer most from a Gingrich candidacy, while Palin seems to benefit the most.

Anonymous said...

I will never vote for Mike Huckabee. Huckabee would be a rotten president.

Anonymous said...

As a GOPer, if we are stuck with the same leftovers we had in 2008 we don't have a chance in 2012. I fear Obama will be very vulnerable but the GOP won't have a legitimate candidate to challenge him. I think our strongest Presidential candidates won't be ready until 2016. (Christie, Jindal, McDonnell, etc.)

Impeach0 said...

Palin continues to post solid numbers while facing unprecedented criticism. I suspect there is a much larger base of support for her than is being realized in any these polls.

People in middle America just love her. She inspires the common person and her message of common sense conservatism resonates well with mainstream America and Tea partiers.

Get her in a debate and she is simply a joy to watch. She is devastating on the attack and can turn a pointed question into one of her talking points with the wink of an eye.

She has also built a loyal base of support among a key group of political hopefuls she endorsed for 2010. She is Kingmaker at the very least, and if she decides to run she will be tough to deny.

Additionally, she has been on an impressive run since she stepped down as Governor. I do not recall a politician in the last 20 years with such an impressive run.

Anonymous said...

Funny that the Texas and Pennsylvania polls are together. And funny that your headlines, as well as headlines on other sites that reference your polls (i.e. highlight the Texas numbers but not the Pennsylvania ones. Could this be because of Palin being on top in PA?

wt said...

No Pawlenty or Thune.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Romney seems to suffer most from a Gingrich candidacy, while Palin seems to benefit the most."

We haven't polled this race in Texas before. Usually Gingrich does best among conservatives and Romney best among moderates, so he's not hurting Romney as much as he is Huckabee and Palin.

"Palin continues to post solid numbers while facing unprecedented criticism."

Only criticism she deserves. And I wouldn't call the highest-profile candidate running perpetually in 3rd "solid." She doesn't capitalize on her gender, doesn't capitalize on her nonstop campaigning for Tea Party candidates and her conservative stances, and doesn't capitalize on her fame and charisma. If anyone should be the frontrunner, it's her. She was the VP nominee last time (Lieberman was the Dem frontrunner until candidates actually started campaigning in '04 because of his name recognition), and she's a media darling. GOoPers love her more than any of the other candidates by far, yet that doesn't translate into votes. Why? They don't see her as qualified, as polling shows.

"I suspect there is a much larger base of support for her than is being realized in any these polls."

Is this Richard Nixon, posting from beyond the grave?

"She is devastating on the attack and can turn a pointed question into one of her talking points with the wink of an eye."

Yeah, she does avoid answering actual questions better than anyone.

"Funny that the Texas and Pennsylvania polls are together."

How's that funny? I think may just have not scrolled down to find the PA numbers.

The Interesting Times said...

Mr. Ingalls, I recall PPP polling the 2012 GOP Presidential race in Texas several months ago. Romney came in first. Your poll of the same candidates in Pennsylvania showed a win for Romney as well.

Now that you've thrown Gingrich into the mix, Romney now loses both states, while Palin wins Pennsylvania.

Colorado likewise switched over from a Romney victory to a Palin win when you added Gingrich.

NRH said...

Republicans are the party that doesn't believe in reality even after it slaps them in the face. Right up until the last moment, Karl Rove insisted that he had THE math that showed Republicans winning handily in 2006 right up until the end, despite polling showing a major Democratic tsunami wiping out Republicans everywhere. Palin supporters, similarly, don't want to believe that they're a LaRouche-like fringe of nuts, no matter how many polls come out showing that even Republicans don't support her.

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