Thursday, June 10, 2010

The NC Legislative Picture

By all accounts Republicans in North Carolina have a great chance to take back control of the legislature this year. There's an unpopular Democratic Governor, the economy's bad, the party has had to deal with one scandal after another, and it's a good political climate for Republicans nationally.

There's just one problem for the GOP that may leave the Democrats in control for another cycle- voters in the state have an extremely dim view of Legislative Republicans. 52% have an unfavorable opinion of them to only 28% who see them in a positive light. The numbers are particularly poor with independents, 61% of whom have a negative opinion of them.

Legislative Democrats aren't popular either- 33% see them favorably to 49% unfavorably- but their numbers aren't as bad as those of the Republicans. It may end up being the case that even though voters aren't particularly thrilled with how the Legislature is being run right now they don't see the Republican leadership as a particularly viable alternative.

For now North Carolinians continue to be closely divided in how they will vote this fall, with 43% saying they would pick vote Democratic for the Legislature if there was an election today and 42% going Republican. The GOP overcomes its party registration gap in the state thanks to a 35-28 advantage with independents and a more unified base- 89% of Republicans are committed to voting for their party compared to 78% of Democrats.

It continues to look like there will be a spirited battle this fall but Republicans may need to take a different tack than they are right now if they want to win because at this point they're not coming across well to the voters.

Full results here

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

How is it that Republicans are more unpopular than Democrats with Unaffiliated voters but Unaffiliated voters are supporting Republicans by a wide margin over Democrats on the generic ballot?

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