Monday, July 12, 2010

And the choices are...

Update 10:40 PM- As always I reserve the right to 'disqualify' a state if someone is cheating on its behalf. The same IP address in Delaware has cast 80 votes for the state in the last half hour or so. I don't know how to prevent people from gaming the poll but I do not consider that to be an acceptable thing to do and if Delaware ends up winning by a small margin I'm going to do the second place finisher instead. If you want a particular state to win get a bunch of different individual people to come vote for it. It's pretty easy to figure out who's cheating look at our different web traffic tools.

Seven choices for where we poll this weekend:

-Colorado. Colorado is probably the most important state that's not getting polled enough this political season so even though we went there in May I'm not opposed to going there again already, especially with the Senate primaries coming up quick.

-Delaware. I doubt there's anything to see here but it doesn't get polled much and it would be interesting to see if there are any signs of vulnerability for Mike Castle.

-Florida. There's a ton on going there. Obviously worth polling.

-Nevada. Very little polling here since the primary- has Sharron Angle's nomination opened the door back up for Democrats or is Harry Reid so unpopular the Republicans could nominate just about anyone and still get away with it?

-New Hampshire. I'm interested in seeing if any trouble is emerging for Kelly Ayotte in the primary. Everyone else the NRSC recruited in seems to be getting tea partied, is she going to join the club?

-New Mexico. A competitive Governor's race obviously, and it (as well as New Hampshire) is one of the places small enough that we can also look at the House races in the state.

-Washington. There's been enough polling here from a wide enough variety of sources that I'm pretty convinced it's a real race but it's about the last big place left we haven't done a poll yet this cycle.

Voting's open until Thursday morning, we'll definitely do the first place finisher and probably the runner up as well.

32 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tom & Dustin,

Can you poll Nevada's House races if it gets chosen? It has 3 like New Mexico does.

Tom Jensen said...

sure

Cpt. Robespierre said...

If Delaware wins, could you do House matchups of the GOP candidates vs. Carney, in addition to the Senate polling?

(Full disclosure: I used to be with the Carney campaign, but I'm not any more, so this is more personal interest.)

Anonymous said...

hey, i voted for florida in the poll, but the vote didn't show up

Anonymous said...

Tom,
When is the MD polling coming out? I live here, and Ras also put a poll out today with Ehrlich up 1.

-Pat

Tom Jensen said...

Yeah it didn't some like using the Blogger poll tool was working so I switched to a different one now. Vote again

NRH said...

New Hampshire all the way. It hasn't been polled since May (since the big race right at the moment is the Republican primary, the fact that it was a Republican pollster in May is a wash - the last not-officially-partisan poll on the general was in April). Kelly Ayotte has been taking heat in the state's newspapers for her fall from the frontrunner spot, including both the right-wing Manchester Union Leader and the blue capital city of Concord's Concord Monitor. With at least Bender and Binnie both ready to spend millions of their own money on this small-state race, things could be very interesting.

Mark Downe said...

If Nevada wins, be sure and poll the Governor's race. You know, the one between the Republican Brian Sandoval and the Democrat Rory Somebody-or-the-other. You know, the guy who is avoiding the use of his last name.

That suggests to the mind one or two interesting questions you might ask that would be unique to that race, does it not?

Anonymous said...

Tom, I like the new model of poll.

But I would like to see Maine in the list, or Vermont. The gubernatorial races in both states are the likely competitive races more underpolled in all the country.

Anonymous said...

DE is such a small state, but probably an accurate bell weather for November. O'Donnell faces challenges similar to other primary candidates facing RINO's across the US - financing and name recognition. I would love to see what the political temperature is, because as stated - very little polling is done in DE.

Anonymous said...

Tom, are ya'll going to start polling house races again soon? I'd love to see a LA-02 poll to see if that Cao internal with him up 51-26 is anywhere near accurate.

Anonymous said...

Tom,

In relations to the gaming of your poll: I voted, I thought it registered my vote, I returned to this website and saw that I could vote as many times as you want. All you have to do is reload the page 50 times, 80 times or however many votes you want to give a state.

So I think it is the new poll model you are using.

Cpt. Robespierre said...

I'm not in Delaware right now, for whatever it's worth. I did try to vote a bunch of times (not 80 though!) when the poll was initially not working, but that's probably not what you're referring to in the update. Play fair people or we won't get any Delaware polling!

Anonymous said...

Can you include Alex Snitker in your Florida Senate poll ?

Snitker is the first ever Libertarian candidate for US Senate in Florida
snitker2010.com

Joel H. said...

It'd be interesting to see whether the FRM scandal has hurt Ayotte and, conversely, the effect the (seemingly more competitive) Republican primary has had on Paul Hodes' numbers. It's hard to know what's what and, as was said previously, NH hasn't been polled since May.

Michael Dohrn said...

Hi Tom,

I don't really see anything in this direction, but I'd love to see you guys do any kind of Republican gubernatorial primary coverage here in Arizona. As a heavy red state whatever Democrat gets ponied up will just get blown out of the water, and I want to know how the chips are falling for Jan Brewer; she's had a real mixed bag of an inherited term.

Thanks! PS, sorry, I have no relation to any of your listed places, so no vote for me! :)

Anonymous said...

Why not poll 2 or 3 of these choices? Why limit it to just one?

Ben (The Tiger in Exile) said...

Any chance you gents will do the Obama/Bush poll again?

Haven't seen one of those for awhile. (Was your last in April, with the two point spread?)

Would like to see whether W has closed the gap, or The One has regained a wider lead...

Tom Jensen said...

Because doing polls costs money and no one's paying us for these? People who want to see us doing more polls are welcome to hire us.

Anonymous said...

Hey Tom, I'd like you to explain again why you can't poll Indiana. Because ras seems to be doing it, and I'd like to know if it is a cost barrier or they're doing something that might add additional error to their senate poll.

Anonymous said...

How much does it cost to do one of these polls? I haven no idea what the ballpark is even. If its reasonable, why not have something on the site where people can donate towards a specific poll they want done?

Gary said...

Iowa should be an interesting state to poll. The factions in the conservative GOP...are they coming together behind Terry Branstad for governor? How would an independent run for governor by Bob Vander Plaats fare against Branstad and incumbent Democrat Chet Culver? (I just wish I had the $$...it's one I'd pay to have done!!)

Anonymous said...

Hey Tom,
Would it be possible to start including questions about the FairTax in your polls, since there are record numbers of Senate, House and very prominent National Candidates who are committed to Co-sponsoring or running on it as a part of their platform? It would also be an interesting question to compare the FairTax which replaces the income tax and all other forms of federal taxes with a sales tax vs. the VAT which would be a consumption tax on top of all of the income tax and all of the other forms of Federal taxes that are already in place. It would be interesting because it is an idea that is definitely being floated throughout DC. Thanks!

David said...

I doubt that Delawareans are trying to game the system. It likely means the state employees are voting on their breaks as they are allowed to do by state policy. In Delaware, out traffic all goes through the IT Department in Dover and shows up with the same IP address. When I get 5 or 6 different people commenting on my blog with the same IP, I can usually count on that being the cause.

Tom Jensen said...

I doubt 80 Delaware state employees all voted at the same time between 10 and 11 PM last night.

Cal - DelaWhere said...

Hmmm, don't know about the 80 voters, but the Delaware Races are hardly ever polled, but this year there is a definite polarization.

For the Sept 14th primary, it will be a test of Party 'Rubber Stamp' with Castle and Rollins, or if there is an awakening towards O'Donnell and Urquhart who challenge the Upstate leaning Party.

Very volatile with only 19,000 voters probably all that are needed for one candidate.

I for one would love to see the polling!

Anonymous said...

As you said there's a lot going on in Florida. If it's chosen and you poll for the US Senate elections, can you please include Alex Snitker?

Anonymous said...

What the hell is going on with the poll now? Looks like someone is gaining it to provide extra votes to Washington. (Washington has come up from 7% to 32% in the last three hours)

The commenter above is correct, you can vote as many as times as you want; all you have to do is reload the page.

Switch back to the old poll design!

Anonymous said...

Someone want to explain the 386 votes for Washington in the state of Oregon?

Anonymous said...

Tom, I highly suggest using pollhost.com.

I just looked there and it looks like you can customize your polls in votes per day/in how many votes they get etc.

Anonymous said...

Someone explain as was pointed out above how Washington is getting almost 400 votes from Oregon? Tom, I saw use your discretion and pick where to poll this weekend.

-Pat

zororiver said...

This is a joke

 
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