Our national poll this month found that the net approval of Congressional Democrats (-24 at 33/57) was 16 points better than that of Congressional Republicans (-40 at 20/60). Yet when it came to the generic ballot there was a tie.
The reason for that disconnect is that Republicans are cleaning up with a voting bloc that accounts for 26% of the country and could end up being the most important group of people at the polls this fall: voters who hate both Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans. The GOP has a 57-19 generic lead with this group of voters that could perhaps be described as the angriest segment of the electorate. Their support is fueling the GOP's success right now.
Who are these folks? 44% are Republicans, 34% are independents, and 21% are Democrats. They're largely male (60%) and white (82%). I think it's very accurate to say that angry white males are the key to GOP prospects this fall.
One interesting thing about these folks is that only 35% of them identify as Tea Partiers. While that's certainly higher than the 25% of the population as a whole that does I might have expected higher.