Friday, July 30, 2010

Coming next week...

This week, we've been polling Washington and our monthly look at North Carolina. Those numbers start coming Tuesday, as usual, so keep your eyes peeled on this blog.

This is our first poll of the Evergreen State this year, and we'll bring you a report on the jungle primary for Senate, Murray matchups against both Rossi and Didier, Initiative 1098, Cantwell against two possible Republican opponents in 2012, and a look ahead to the 2012 open gubernatorial race.

Here in NC, it'll be interesting to see if Elaine Marshall's internal numbers hold up to our methodology. We're also polling on support for hosting the 2012 Democratic National Convention and an interesting test case that we won't spoil but that you should stay tuned to find out.

23 comments:

DBL said...

Any congressional races? NC-8 is expected to be competitive, but a number of forecasters have NC-2, 7, and 11 as possibly in play.

Daniel Surman said...

I am really interested to see if Mike Beitler's numbers are where you put them last. The internal polling that came out recently from the Marshall camp and the other numbers from the Civitas Institute both show his numbers lower than you or SUSA.

philip.brower said...

I'm just curious, do you guys poll during the week or on the weekend, or both?

Anonymous said...

Hi Mr. Jensen,

I have a request:

I´d like to see a new AR Senate poll.

Do you guys plan to poll there soon ?

I saw your latest poll is from February.

If you do, could you also poll Bill Clinton vs. John Boozman, just for fun ?

I´d like to see if the Clinton brand is still strong in Arkansas.

Thanks :-)

Dustin Ingalls said...

No congressional races. We'd have to do them as completely separate polls in NC, since we have 13 districts and can't get a sizable enough sample while polling the whole state. I'd say the 8th is the only one truly in play, but despite his lack of any fundraising prowess whatsoever, Larry Kissell seems to still be favored, and I think in the end, all of NC's incumbents will win re-election, most by very healthy margins. Bob Etheridge might have been in trouble had he gotten a legitimate opponent. Despite Kelsey Grammer's fundraising presence for his opponent, no way Mike McIntyre loses. Nor Heath Shuler, who also doesn't have much of an opponent and seems to be relatively popular on a bipartisan level in his district.

MaryP said...

As a Washington resident, I'm much more interested in current congressional polling in the 3rd and 8th districts than speculative polling about the 2012 senate race.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"As a Washington resident, I'm much more interested in current congressional polling in the 3rd and 8th districts than speculative polling about the 2012 senate race."

Then I guess you'll be disappointed. It's very difficult to poll congressional races unless we only pull a sample for each district, which requires a separate poll. In small states like NH and NV, we can sometimes get large enough samples while polling the entire state. But since we do these for you guys for free, we can't poll everywhere.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Ingalls,

What about Arkansas and Clinton vs. Boozman I mentioned above, or a new Lincoln vs. Boozman poll in general ?

Thanks.

Matt said...

Hi Dustin -

Does PPP have any plans to poll in South Carolina anytime soon? I am interested in the SC-5 race. I notice that you guys polled it back in January, but I'd love to see a more up-to-date picture of the race...RCP rates it as a "Toss Up" and there are some interesting dynamics there.

Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Are you doing the 2012 Republican primary? There's some people saying that the northwest could be Palin land?

Sean said...

Thanks for doing these for free btw!

Anonymous said...

Is there gonna be a CO poll this weekend before the primaries? CO seems to have the most interesting primaries, with R and D Sen, R Gov, and Gov general election. Plus, ya'll have a great record with weekend before polling this cycle on statewide races and primaries, and maybe one more great weekend before poll could finally win over the few skeptics.

wt said...

@ Dustin Ingalls

I would love to see a full-blown blog post on why you think the NC incumbents will all win their House races this fall.

Not because I disagree, just because it would be interesting to read a seat-by-seat analysis of why each incumbent is safe despite the environment this year.

Anonymous said...

continuing up on wt said, you guys are the perfect people to examine it as a NC blog

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Are you doing the 2012 Republican primary? There's some people saying that the northwest could be Palin land?"

Yes, we're doing that too, though it won't be perfect. Washington's GOP has a strange hybrid caucus-primary system for selecting presidential delegates, and the sample we're polling treats it as a simple primary of all those who identify as Republicans when we ask the usual party ID demographic question.

"Is there gonna be a CO poll this weekend before the primaries?"

Because of work for a private client, this is one state I can say it's unlikely we poll publicly before the primary.

"I would love to see a full-blown blog post on why you think the NC incumbents will all win their House races this fall."

It really boils down to a few things. The Democratic NC legislature has done such a good job of gerrymandering incumbents into friendly districts that, at worst, barely lean toward the opposite party by maybe a few points in terms of Cook's PVI. McCain won the 5 Republican-held districts, which are basically impossible for Democrats to crack, by an average of 22 points. Obama won the 8 Democratic-held seats by an average of 14 points, though he only won six of them, for an average of almost 21 points. There are no Republican Congressmen in districts Obama won. Heath Shuler and Mike McIntyre are the only two Democrats whose districts were won by McCain, and it was only by 5 points each, in a state Obama won by less than 1%. Shuler and McIntyre are both relatively popular with Republicans and conservatives in their districts because of their Blue Dog affiliation and opposition to health care and other Democratic measures. Neither has a very strong opponent. Larry Kissell is vulnerable because he's not in an overwhelmingly Democratic district (R+2 based on the '04 and '08 elections, though Obama won the 8th by 6) and because he's a freshman and among the worst fundraisers in the entire House, if not the worst. He also has a decently strong and well-financed opponent, though one bruised by the primary battle with Tim D'Annunzio. None of the other incumbents has a challenger worth sneezing at.

Timothy said...

What do you mean when talk about Elaine Marshall's internals? They show here ahead?! Bwahahahaha.

CommonSense said...

Dustin,
Who are you thinking of polling next to Cantwell in 2012? Susan Hutchison? Cathy McMorris Rodgers? Clint Didier? I'm just curious...

DBL said...

You've been scooped on North Carolina congressional

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/civitas-poll-shuler-and-miller-dead-heat-district-11-congressional-seat

Dustin Ingalls said...

"What do you mean when talk about Elaine Marshall's internals? They show here ahead?! Bwahahahaha."

Yep. Our numbers on the race come out tomorrow.

"Dustin,
Who are you thinking of polling next to Cantwell in 2012? Susan Hutchison? Cathy McMorris Rodgers? Clint Didier? I'm just curious..."

You'll see later this week.

PackMan97 said...

I would guess that David Price is going to have much more of a fight on his hands than anyone thinks. Last I heard he's actually opened up a campaign office, something he hasn't bothered to do for a decade.

Lawson is far from your typical conservative Republican and I think he has a good chance to pull a lot of the younger vote the area.

Anonymous said...

Dustin, Tom,

Breaking news at least in NC. Contrary to what you thought would be an easy reelection for Shuler, he only leads by 1 point.

So do you think they might be more vulnerable that previously thought?

Anonymous said...

I forgot to post the link to the Shuler poll:

http://www.whkp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4883

Anonymous said...

Could You Consider conducting a 2012 presidential match-up poll for New York, Maryland,Hawaii, Delaware, and Vermont?

 
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