Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Florida Governor Poll Preview

We're going to have Florida Governor numbers tomorrow and it's safe to say that Rick Scott's entry into the race has changed it dramatically...in a positive way for Alex Sink.

Just how divisive has this Republican primary gotten? Among people planning to vote for Bill McCollum, Scott's favorability is 4% with 62% viewing him unfavorably. Among people planning to vote for Scott, McCollum's favorability is just 7% with 65% viewing him unfavorably. You can imagine what that level of dissension within the GOP base is having on the party's chances of winning the seat this fall.

We should have that out in the morning

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I know this isn't on-topic, but there don't seem to be any recent open threads on poll discussion/suggestions.

I was wondering what thoughts (if any) you had on the recent SUSA poll showing Tom Perrielo more than 20 points behind, as opposed to your finding of a tied race earlier this year.

I'm kind of wary of believing their results; if it was <15 points, it would be plausible, but this margin seems unplausibly high. My impression with SUSA is that though most of their polling has been on-target (and they have a nice pollster score), they've also had a few glaring consistent discrepancies (ex: their Minnesota polling in 2008 showed the presidential race tied all the way through up until the end), and some far misses (finding Bobby Bright 15+ points down in 2008), perhaps since they don't use any weighting.

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