It's hard to believe it's already time for this but it's time to start picking the states for PPP's final round of public polls for this cycle, which will be released from Thursday, October 28th to Monday, November 1st.
We're aiming to survey 18 states over the last week of the election. 12 of them are locks: Alaska, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
The final six we'll let you choose. 3 of them will be eastern time zone states and the other 3 will non-eastern time zones. Here are your choices for the eastern time zone ones and voting will be open until Wednesday night:
-Connecticut
-Delaware
-Georgia
-Maine
-Maryland
-Massachusetts
-New Hampshire
-New York
-Rhode Island
-South Carolina
-Vermont
Vote away!
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29 comments:
Do you think you'd be able to poll the House races in New Hampshire?
No kentucky on the list? Why?
thank you for selecting Vermont as an option. if it wins, the races for LT. Gov, Auditor and Secretary of state are competitive.
Can I write in Texas?
We likely would not poll any House races except in At Large states. Texas and Kentucky will be included in the non-eastern time zone vote that will begin Wednesday night.
Would Arkansas be one of the non eastern time zoners
in advance gov race i want to see some non ras/reuters numbers
so will polls be released every day starting on the 28th or will there not be any on weekends?
Connecticut
Delaware
Massachusetts
Vermont
Maine
New Hampshire
The only ones polling Georgia consistently are the conservative InsiderAdvantage and Rasmussen, we need a different perspective.
IA poll on 9.27 had Deal-Barnes, 45-37. On 10.7, it had Deal-Barnes, 49-41.
And yet, today they say The last IA survey showed Barnes slowly improving his numbers among the critical independent swing vote. The trend was not necessarily reflected in the top line results of that poll once the weightings were done for other demographic groups.
Seems kind of silly that independents improved in 10 days, but the margins stayed the same...
New Hampshire only has two house seats, and the only polling in those has been from the execrable UNH Survey Center's Andy Smith. It would be great to get some reliable looks at them, if possible (and with such a huge slate of polls for that weekend already I can appreciate the difficulty in adding the in-state division).
Are you willing to poll downballot statewide races of whatever wins?
I would say don't poll Delaware--Every poll shows O'Donnell down by double digits,she isn't going to suddenly do something to tighten this up and the at large race seems to be good for the Dems. In fact DE and NY are probably going to be the two best states the Dems will have on election night.
I would recommend:
Rhode Island--a competitve governors race
South Carolina--there are signs that the Democrats are gaining
Vermont--another competitive governor's race.
I'd like to see a poll on Barney Frank's seat. Thank you
Polls in Maine have been all over the place in the gubernatorial race. Has the Democratic candidate peaked around 30%? Also looks like Scontras in CD-1 is closing the gap. Did the Pingree-Sossman-Barney Frank trip to the Virgin Islands make a difference?
Can you poll statewide races like NY Attorney General?
Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island.
Connecticut is an obvious choice, with moderately competitive Senate and Gov races. New Hampshire, similarly, though less so. Maine, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts 3-way races.
Why isn't Indiana on here? We're eastern time (at least most of the state is)...
I just wanted to offer my thanks and gratitude that your organization continues to run a blog, engage commenters, discuss your polling methods, and perform a public service while, at the same time, running a business that I'm sure must be crazy right now.
I occasionally disagree with the results of the polling based on my hunches or gut reactions, but can't argue with the consistently accurate results you guys have had lately. Great work.
"South Carolina--there are signs that the Democrats are gaining"
Surely you're not talking about Alvin Greene. ;)
"I'd like to see a poll on Barney Frank's seat."
Not from us.
I agree about the statewide offices in Vermont.
They are very interesting statewide offices in Connecticut too: Attorney General, Secretary of State and State Comptroller.
Maybe some data about the statewide offices?
Dustin Ingalls said...
South Carolina--there are signs that the Democrats are gaining"
Surely you're not talking about Alvin Greene. ;)
Good point, Dustin! Though I wouldn't be surprised if he moves from 11% to 15% by election day! :)
I just want to say that you guys rock!!!!!!!! Nuff said.
I'd love to see a poll of the South Carolina governor's race -- I suspect that Nikki Haley is less of a sure winner than many are presuming. I also think that John Spratt is in more trouble than most folks think.
There have been two(!) post primary polls in Vermont. is Shumlin winning, or was it a primary bounce? Vote Vermont so we can see!
I would have voted for Kentucky if it were on the list. Beating Rand Paul seems quite possible.
Polls in the Maine gubernatorial race have actually been very, very consistent. Up until late September, all the fall polls - from three different companies - gave LePage a 14-18 point lead. Then two straight polls had it within one point. Now the past three polls, from three different companies again, have given LePage a 3-6 point lead. That shows remarkable consistency; they are not, as the commenter above said, "all over the place". Indeed, all the polls conducted at the same points in time have been very similar.
It is absolutely inaccurate to say that polls on the Maine gubernatorial race have been "all over the place." Instead, they have been remarkably consistent throughout as the race has developed.
How about MA-2? I think Tom Wesley has a real shot to beat Richard Neal! This could be one of those surprises we hear about on Election Night!
We heard reports from locals in RI that PPP was calling about the gov race the last week of the campaign.
1 - Confirm / deny?
2 - Results?
Gotta say, PPP, RI is a crazy, mixed-up political landscape. Really worth a look just as a study case in counter-trend politics. We just swept in a progressive wave across the state.
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