Thursday, September 20, 2007

Could Dean Smith beat Elizabeth Dole?

Maybe. According to our latest survey former basketball coach Dean Smith fares better against Dole than any Democrat we have tested other than Governor Mike Easley.

Dole 41%
Smith 35%

In a more likely scenario, we did further testing of State Representative Grier Martin against Elizabeth Dole. First was a question with no description other than their elective office and later the respondents were given an extensive biography of Rep. Martin. Click here for complete results to see the biography.

Dole vs. Martin w/o bio
Dole 45%
Martin 30%

Dole vs. Martin w/ bio
Martin 47%
Dole 40%

Yes, you are reading that correctly. When respondents are given an extensive biography of Grier Martin he beats Elizabeth Dole. What does this prove?

1. The power of an informed vote question on poll results.
2. The incredible potential of a Grier Martin candidacy.
3. Grier Martin is currently far behind Elizabeth Dole and would need a well run campaign to effectively communicate that biography. Not to mention the fact that the Dole campaign will be doing everything it can to discredit him and tout her own impressive resume.

Other results of interest…

Dole Approval
Approve 45%
Disapprove 40%

Bush Approval
Approve 40%
Disapprove 54%


Chris said...

Is it fair to give the bio of one candidate without giving the bio of another?

How would the results have changed if you gave Dole's bio as well? Red Cross, HUD/Transportation Secretary, fought against base closings in NC, etc.

And to only highlight Grier's work on lobbying reform is awfully selective (and quite biased in his favor) when there are plenty of other things to choose from.

Justin Guillory said...

It's an experiment. Looking for an totally unbiased question? See the initial results that have Martin down 15 points.

Unknown said...

Even as a conservative, I don't think that I could stomach doing opposition research on Coach Smith.

Interesting candidate however. I would have liked to have seen a crosstab with ACC school allegiance and Smith v. Dole.

I guess you would place that question after Smith v. Dole to minimize bias?

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