Thursday, October 7, 2010

2012 Hawaii Senate

A couple days ago Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle said she might be interested in running for the Senate in 2012. A few years ago, coming off getting 63% in her reelection campaign for Governor, that might have been a very scary thought for Democrats. But the poll we did for Daily Kos in the state last weekend found that Lingle is not nearly as popular as she used to be.

Lingle now meets with approval from only 46% of voters in the state with 45% disapproving. She's still very popular with Republicans (an 80/17 approval rating) and independents as well (a 56/32 spread). But for a Republican to win in Hawaii requires a significant amount of crossover support from Democrats and that Lingle no longer seems to have- only 22% like the job she's doing now to 68% who disapprove.

Daniel Akaka, who would be Lingle's opponent in 2012 unless he chooses to retire, has better approval numbers with 49% of voters approving of him and 35% disapproving. He can't match Lingle's popularity with independents and isn't any more popular with Republicans than Lingle is with Democrats. But he retains a high degree of popularity within his own party and since that accounts for most of the voters in the state he has superior approval numbers to her.

And of course these approval numbers are with voters in a 2010 electorate that's much more conservative than what the state is likely to see in 2012 with native son Barack Obama back at the top of the Democratic ticket. Lingle would be under water approval wise with the voters in a Presidential year electorate. So even if Akaka retires I don't think Democrats have a lot to worry about here.


Anonymous said...

Is this the same crystal ball that told you Richard Burr was extremely endangered and likely to lose?

wt said...

Yeah, Lingle is young enough though (57), and can still wait till 2018 to run for Senate. Maybe she can run for Congress before then to keep her name out there.

Unknown said...

Your dailykos numbers were interesting. Since the gubernatoria and senate races was pretty much the same overall as it was in HI-1, the numbers in HI-2 were similar tp HI-1. I haven't seen all the numbers but it seems:

Senate: Heavy Democrat win
Gov: Even
House: Even

Senate: Heavy Democrat win
Gov: Even
House: Heavy Democrat win???

Cavasso is getting 28% in HI-1 and probably 30% in HI-2. Alona is getting 48% in HI-1 and probably 46% in HI-2. It appears that Inouye is getting about 10% of Alona's Democrats, 21% of his Republicans, and 23% of his independents consistently in both districts.

Overall, about 70% of voters are voting party line and 18% of voters are going Alona/Inouye. In HI-1 the Alona/Inouye voters are likely voting Djou. You aren't publishing the numbers but logic would say that the Alona/Inouye voter in HI-2 will vote Republican. I'm aware that Willoughby hasn't run any advertising, but why would HI-2 Alona/Inouye voters vote different in the House after voting the same in the governor and senate races?

Ray said...

Did you actually poll the hypothetical race?

Christian Liberty said...

Even in Hawaii, Democrats are struggling... because the ideas of their party are so objectionable to rational and honorable Americans.,_margin_of_error

Christian Liberty said...

Are we at PPP ready to concede that Republicans win BOTH houses of Congress yet? When are you actually going to admit that Republicans win the house AND the senate?

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Did you actually poll the hypothetical race?"

No, Kos didn't ask us to. They're typically only having us do battleground House, Senate, and gubernatorial contests for this year.

"Are we at PPP ready to concede that Republicans win BOTH houses of Congress yet?"

If the election were held today, the GOP would gain only 7 seats--ND, AR, IN, PA, WI, and narrowly IL and WV, and possibly narrowly NV for 8 (we'll see next week). CO and WA will be close but Bennet and Murray would retain as of now. If we maintain that firewall, keeping at least one of IL, WV, NV, CO, and WA, the Senate is still ours--you guys would have to win all five to take control, and that's not likely. WA is looking the least likely to flip. There's also a pretty decent chance Giannoulias still wins, considering it's IL, and Kirk isn't well liked, and most of the undecideds are Dems. And we'll see what we find in WV next week, whether there's any backlash yet over the "blue-collar hick" ad filmed for Florida resident Raese in the Philly area.

wt said...

The "hick" casting call was put out by a talent agency, working for a vendor, working for the NRSC, running ads for Raese. I don't think anyone can be intellectually honest in holding it against Raese, or even the NRSC. Come on.

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