Monday, October 18, 2010

Previewing Washington

The Washington poll we'll put out tomorrow finds that by a 47-46 margin voters in the state would like Republicans to have control of the Senate for the next session of Congress. It also finds, like almost all recent polls, a lead for Patty Murray.

Dino Rossi isn't usually thought of as one of the weak Republican candidates this year along the lines of the Christine O'Donnells, Sharron Angles, and Joe Millers of the world but when you see voters in Washington wanting a Republican Senate but not wanting Dino you may as well add him to the list. And his favorability numbers are pretty poor with 49% of voters having an unfavorable opinion of him to only 44% who see him positively.

It was pretty much simultaneously earlier this year that Republicans were hoping Rossi would join the race in Washington and that Tommy Thompson would throw his hat in Wisconsin. Republicans got what they wanted in Washington but not in Wisconsin. In retrospect though they actually came out better in Wisconsin than in Washington.

Rossi and Thompson are both tired old politicians in a year when Americans aren't too fond of them. Our final poll in Wisconsin when Thompson was still considering the race found 44% of voters with an unfavorable opinion of him and only 40% with a positive one, numbers very similar to Rossi. Fast forward 7 months and compare those numbers for Thompson to what we found on our last poll for Ron Johnson- 46% favorable, 34% unfavorable and a solid lead over Russ Feingold. Republicans are much better off with the fresh face they got in Wisconsin than they are with the familiar one in Washington, even if that's not what they thought they wanted in the first part of this year.


Anonymous said...

Since you signed that contract with Daily Kos Hate America your polls are meaningless. You are Dem rim boy

Anonymous said...

Hey, what a great site! You know you're doing a good job when you've got the wingnuts leaving juvi posts. Of course, that's because their guys have nothing to offer but lies and denials.

ARealSenator said...

I'm just speculating here, but it may be that Johnson's outsider status vs. Rossi's political history helped the former in this anti-establishment environment. I'm not sure how each has played themselves up in their campaigns, but this would seem like a legitimate guess.

JCordes said...

In this "anti-establishment" year, Jerry Brown is about to be elected governor of California, Dan Coats will be elected Senator from Indiana, Roy Blunt will be elected Senator from Missouri, and Rob Portman will be elected Senator from Ohio.

Statistikhengst said...

I agree with political Psychic: you are doing a hell of a job and I find your numbers more centrist than RAS anyday. Plus, when the occasional cowardly tea-bagger like "Anonymous" does a drive by fill with drivel, it means that they are scared. So, let em be scared.

Jonny V said...

JCordes --- Callahan still has a shot in Missouri.

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