Thursday, October 21, 2010

Illinois Gov a 1 point race

The Illinois Governor's race is starting to feel more and more like last year's contest in New Jersey all over again. Like Jon Corzine, Pat Quinn has horrid approval numbers. Like Corzine, he was down by a lot over the summer and looked like he was as good as dead. Like Corzine, he's pulled closer as his party's base has reluctantly unified around him. And like Corzine part of his competitiveness is predicated on voters who don't like him supporting a third party candidate instead of his Republican opponent. Whether Quinn's final fate will be the same as Corzine's we shall see.

Our new poll in Illinois finds Quinn trailing Bill Brady just 42-41 with third party candidates combining to get 10%. Whether those third party candidates can maintain their current level of support is going to be critical to Quinn's reelection hopes because in a head to head contest between Quinn and Brady the Republican leads 49-44. That suggests the folks going for the minor candidates are folks who really don't like Quinn but can't quite bring themselves to support Brady. The independent bid of Chris Daggett in New Jersey last year similarly propped up Corzine for a while and shifted the race to a tie but eventually Daggett's support collapsed with folks who had been saying they would vote for him and they moved toward Chris Christie, handing him his final victory.

Regardless of whether he will win in the end Quinn's comeback has been impressive. He trailed by 7 in our last poll. Since then he has convinced a lot of Democratic leaning undecideds to vote for him. He was receiving just 62% of the Democratic vote on our last poll but is now up to 71%. He's likewise increased his support from 27% to 40% with independent voters while Brady's support has remained steady.

Although Quinn remains very unpopular, with a 32% approval rating, the simple story on this race is that the better voters have gotten to know Bill Brady the more appealing Quinn has started looking in comparison. Back in April when Brady had 45% name recognition he led the race by 10 points. Now 83% of voters in the state know who Brady is and they don't like what they see. 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with an unfavorable one.

It's hard to imagine that someone as unpopular as Quinn could really get reelected as Governor in the end but this race looks more interesting than it has in months as it enters its final days.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

well its you against Rasmussen which just 2 hrs ago puts Brady ahead by 7 on 45% to 38%.

One of you are wrong.

Anonymous said...

"One of you are wrong.

October 21, 2010 1:44 PM"

PPP is the wrong one. I mean come-f*cking-on. Pew just released their generic and GOP is up 10, and 19 pts. up among independents. This is the umpteenth poll in a week that has the GOP up outside MoE. Do you honestly think that Illinois is Cuba? The only thing that makes Illinois special are its special ed. voters who voted for Obama.

Chuck T said...

Anonymous said...
well its you against Rasmussen which just 2 hrs ago puts Brady ahead by 7 on 45% to 38%.

One of you are wrong.

I might split the difference. If Ras has Brady up by 7 and PPP by 1 I would say it's getting closer and within the margin of error and that Brady is probably up by about 3-4 points.

Jonathan said...

"One of you are wrong."

Considering PPP(D)'s recent track of showing Dems catching up when NO ONE IN THE FRIGGIN' WORLD is showing it, I think it's pretty safe to say that PPP(D) is wrong. Shocker, I know.

Rasmussen Reports, 10/20 - 10/20: Brady +8

PPP (D), 10/14 - 10/16: Brady +1

The Simon Poll/SIU, 9/30 - 10/10: Brady +8

Credibility is sooooo passé!

JGibson said...

The Repubmussen poll is inaccurate, and includes 4 of the five challengers. Guess who Biasmussen omitted? Lex Green, and I bet they did it so Brady can have a better shot at winning.

I hope Quinn somehow wins it.

Anonymous said...

Like Corzine, Quinn never get to 45 or better in any polls...Brady has in a few...would you count on the dems are really coming back home and vote...or there wont be a final collapse of the third party votes who are really against Quinn.. the original wisdom was these green party supporters couldn't possibly support Brady, but they hate Quinn big time, what would they do on election day...sit home, do nothing or vote for Brady vs Quinn...I dont buy all these tightening stories, everywhere I go, the Rs are really ready to vote...the Ds, let's just say, more interesting to watch Oprah than to go out and vote. My prediction, R wins 53 house votes and flips 9 senate seats...Toomey, Buck, Angle won with 3-5% over...WV flips, WI flips...biggest price of the night - Boxer loses by 1% (not enough potheads to float the Boxer Blimp)...Brown won by 4%...Scott won by 4%...Complete killing field for the Ds in gov races stretching from PA, thru OH, into MI, WI, IA..block by a D in MN..will see how that shakes..

Phoenix Woman said...

Anonymous: Rasmussen is a Republican pollster, and his thumb is on the scales at all times:

Anonymous said...

So is your grammar.

Unknown said...

I know that as a Democrat if you read something in a progressive blog that makes it true, but if you do research you'll know that neither of those things are true. Rasmussen isn't employed by any Republican campaign. He might (or might not) be a Republican, but I'm pretty sure all pollsters vote for someone. That doesn't make them biased or employed by anyone.

Rasmussen has no Republican bias. Their polls skewed Republican, sometimes heavily, earlier this year. But that was when they were using "likely voter" and everyone else was using "registered voter." You can question the wisdom of doing that, but comparing the two is apples and oranges.

Since everyone went to "likely voter" models, Quinnipiac, Reuters, and SurveyUSA have been 2-4 points more Republican than Rasmussen. Surely, every independent pollster can't be in the bag for the GOP.

NRH said...

Apparently Muhlenberg and Quinnipiac are NOBODY ELSE IN THE ENTIRE WORLD these days, given how they found results within three points of PPP to corroborate the findings in both PA-Sen and PA-Gov. But then, teatards don't let little things like reality get in the way of a good ALL CAPS SHOUT!

henwy said...

I haven't read the comments for other entries, so I apologize in advance if this has been addressed, but PPP's numbers seem to have diverged quite drastically in the past week from other polls. I'm sure other comments have asked, but is there a stated reason for this? Has the polling 'system' been adjusted in any manner or the weighting/turnout model changed? Normally, I would just say that it seems the environemnt might be getting better for the dems since PPP has been pretty reliable, but these trends you've been reporting have been pretty extreme and very little of it is being cooborated by other pollsters in the same races.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Has the polling 'system' been adjusted in any manner or the weighting/turnout model changed?"

Not in the slightest. I think one thing that does separate us from other pollsters is that a lot of others prod leaners and factor those into the final numbers, so their results shift more than ours do from poll to poll as those undecideds waft in the wind between candidates. We will be factoring in leaners into our final polls this week.

And I don't think we have found anything that hasn't been corroborated by at least one other pollster--the PA results are consistent with what others are now finding, for instance, and I'm not sure what else would appear an outlier.

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