Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Trump, Huckabee tie in West Virginia

West Virginia marks the first state where we've found Donald Trump leading the GOP Presidential field- he gets 24% there, tying him at the top with Mike Huckabee. Sarah Palin is third with 13%, followed by Mitt Romney at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, and Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 3%.

We polled the Republican race in West Virginia in January too. With Trump now in the picture Huckabee is down 4 points from his standing on that previous poll, Palin has dropped 10 points, and Gingrich has fallen 8 points. Romney is actually up a point- you have to wonder if a Trump candidacy could actually end up being a blessing in disguise for Romney.

The folks who Trump appeals to by and large just aren't going to be particularly open to voting for Romney- so if Trump's in the race and helping to fracture the far right vote among a number of different candidates that gives Romney more of an opening to win in places even where he doesn't do that well with conservative voters. West Virginia's not somewhere Romney's likely to win regardless of the field but when you see him staying steady while everyone else goes down because of Trump you see where it could be a plus for him in the long run.

Trump is riding the birther train to his lead in West Virginia. Only 22% of Republican voters there think Barack Obama was born in the country to 53% who think he was not and 26% who are unsure. With the voters who think Obama was born in the US Trump gets just 15%, putting him in third place behind Huckabee and Romney. But with the folks who think Obama was not Trump gets 30% putting him 8 points ahead of Huckabee and allowing him the overall tie.

Full results here


I Am Iron Man said...

I wonder how well Trump would do if Huckabee & Palin don't run (which seems quite possible) ... would all the nuts consolidate their vote together to vote for Trump? ... man the Republicans may be truly screwed if Trump actually follows through with this madness.


I'm not sure that the label "conservative" is even close to relevant even more. These people are just idiots. 53% of them believe a conspiracy theory that makes no sense and for which there is no proof. That's just astonishing.

Every birther should watch this CNN investigation on the "issue." If you're still a birther after watching that you are truly a moron. I'm sorry but that's all there is to it.

Pavonis said...

I wonder what the best predictor is of being a Birther Republican rather than a non-Birther Republican. Are Birthers just more far right? Do they have more racist attitudes against blacks? Or immigrants? Do they only watch Fox News or listen to Limbaugh? Are they the type of people who believe the Earth was created 6000 years ago? Or are they the ones who also believe the Moon Landings were faked and that the CIA killed JFK? Yeah, the conspiracy would have to be pretty massive to get someone not consitutionally qualifed past all the intelligence agencies of the U.S. and foreign countries, the Clinton, McCain, and RNC oppo teams (and the campaign teams of all of Obama's previous rivals in Illinois), as well as the government of Hawaii. How could someone even believe this is possible?

What insights are there from these PPP polls?

I think future historians will wonder what was ultimately behind the Birther movement. None of the reasons will be flattering.

Anonymous said...

he won't get my vote

Anonymous said...

With trumps business experiance and the ability to recover from a bankruptcy and then again make millions of dollars from nothing which is the situation our president has done via his 4 trillion dollar a year spending increase I think that trump just may be the leadership experiance the United States needs to retain its postion as the worlds currency.

SgtWalt said...

TRump would be qan excellent president. It seems that he is one man who has run something other than a leftist commuity organization, not to mention he has COMMON SENSE which is lacking in the current administration.

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