Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Obama holding up in North Carolina

Barack Obama's poll numbers nationwide aren't looking very good right now but one place where he's holding up pretty well is North Carolina. His approval rating there this month is 49%, with 48% of voters disapproving. Those numbers basically mirror the results of the 2008 election in the state, pretty good given that in our national polling right now his approval spread is running 13 points behind his margin of victory against John McCain.

There are two data points key to Obama's continued decent standing in North Carolina. In most places Obama has maintained his popularity with minorities but seen a significant decline in his popularity with white voters. Here though his 37% approval rating with whites matches the percentage of the vote we found him winning in 2008 and that combined with his 87% standing with black voters puts him on slightly positive ground overall. The other key thing for Obama is that he's at 50/44 with independents here, basically matching his 2008 victory margin over McCain in the state with those voters and running counter to his 37/54 approval breakdown with them nationally.

Obama leads all five Republicans we tested against him in the state. Against Mike Huckabee (48-47), Mitt Romney (47-44), and Newt Gingrich (49-45) the margins are pretty close. Against Sarah Palin (52-40) and Donald Trump (51-39), who Obama can probably only dream about running against, the numbers are not so close.

Obama's doing well in those match ups against the Republicans not just because his own numbers are holding up well but because North Carolinians for the most part have a very dim view of the GOP field. Only Huckabee is viewed more favorably than unfavorably by voters in the state and that's by a narrow margin at 42/37. After him Romney is the most 'popular' at 31/44, followed by Gingrich at 31/50, Palin at 33/60, and Trump at 27/62. If the Republicans had a really appealing candidate Obama would probably be having more trouble in North Carolina, but as of now they don't.

Obama is highly unlikely to get to the point where he wins North Carolina easily next year but he's definitely still in the game and the state should be hotly contested for a second election cycle in a row.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Really surprised that Gingrich is holding up that well in NC.

Dustin Ingalls said...

Gingrich seems to have separated from dwelling with Palin in the cellar in a few places recently. It might just be that with Trump attracting all the kooks and the media's attention, Gingrich looks better by comparison.

Anonymous said...

Care to explain how this poll is consistent with your most recent national poll showing Obama at 49% unfavorables (not just disapproval but unfavorables)

I Am Iron Man said...

Nice to see this as I find it difficult to imagine the Republicans winning the White House while losing North Carolina.

I do share Anonymous' surprise over Gingrich's relatively strong numbers though.

That said; Gingrich isn't going to win.

I think this is going to come down to Romney vs. the anti-Romney. The question is will the anti-Romney vote come together and settle on a candidate?

Where would Huckabee & Palin voters go if they don't run?

As an Obama supporter I'm dreaming of a scenario where Trump actually wins the nomination. It seems *extremely* unlikely to me but ... I also think it would lead to a huge landslide victory for Obama.

And really maybe it's not so unlikely... because it appears that the GOP base is intent on supporting one loon or another (now with Palin falling, Trump is taking her place.) I don't know if they are going to swallow their madness and vote for the "ObamaCare" supporting Mormon.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Care to explain how this poll is consistent with your most recent national poll showing Obama at 49% unfavorables (not just disapproval but unfavorables)"

Did you read the post?

Anonymous said...

I greatly respect PPPs polling in general, but there is no way that the NC poll numbers are accurate. Virtually all of my friends and neighbors dislike or even hate Obama, and they are not a conservative bunch. I live in Raleigh which is more liberal than the state as a whole, and other polling organizations have recently released numbers that paint a very different picture than this survey.

Barack Obama will not win North Carolina in 2012, unless something miraculous happens. Virginia, I would say, is a true 50/50 toss up.

Ranjit said...


I agree that it will be a tough fight ! But in 2008, there was a huge enthusiasm among young voters and they were literally reminding every democrat voter 2 or 3 times ! I went to a Tea Party Rally on April 15th of this year ! There was not a single protester ! Last year and year before that, there were 50 people standing in the other side protesting against tea party rally !

My point is that, the numbers reflected through blacks and independents will not materialize for Obama on the election day ! But, I can bet you that, every conservative and Republican will canvass, register new votes and also vote on election day !

Anonymous said...

These numbers are correct, so the truth hurts, for all of you "Birther" people! I think that it is hilarious, and sit back and have a huge smile on my face, on how my NC, has progressed! My parents up in Wilkes County, NC ( A VERY GOP County) are going to hold their nose and vote for Obama next year....Why?? B/C of Medicare! They voted McCain in 2008, and now are finally listening to me.

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