Thursday, June 30, 2011

Bachmann up in New Mexico

And the Bachmentum just keeps rolling on...our new Republican primary poll in New Mexico finds her leading the field with 21% to 18% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Gary Johnson, 11% for Sarah Palin, 10% for Herman Cain, 7% for Tim Pawlenty, 6% for Newt Gingrich, and 5% for Ron Paul.

Bachmann's lead in New Mexico is built on strong support from the far right. 28% of 'very conservative' voters say she's their top choice to 16% for Palin and 12% for Romney. Johnson has the upper hand with moderate voters- 21% to Romney's 18% and Bachmann's 14%. And Romney has the advantage with voters just to the right of center- 27% to Bachmann's 14% and Johnson's 13% with 'somewhat conservative' folks. But that 'very conservative' voter bloc is the largest part of the Republican electorate in New Mexico at 43% and that lead with them gives Bachmann the overall advantage.

The most popular of the Republican candidates, as measured by favorability rating, is Palin at 62/27. The big question with her poor horse race performance is this- are people not supporting her because they don't think she's Presidential material, even if they personally like her? Or is her low support because people don't think she's running? If it's the former her prospects aren't very good but if it's the latter and she does end up entering the race there could be an immediate, significant improvement in her numbers.

Johnson has the weakest favorability numbers with his home state Republican primary voters at 47/40. Some of his unorthodox positions aren't playing well with the base, even if they do give him an unusual level of popularity across party lines with Democrats and independents.

When Sarah Palin and Gary Johnson aren't included in the poll Bachmann leads with 27% to 23% for Romney, 12% for Cain, 8% for Paul, 7% for Pawlenty, 6% for Gingrich, and 4% for Jon Huntsman. When Palin's included but Johnson is not Bachmann and Romney tie at 22% with Palin at 14%, Cain at 10%, Paul and Pawlenty at 7%, Gingrich at 4%, and Huntsman at 3%.

Full results here


J. Gravelle said...

It's perplexing to think that any of my fellow conservative / libertarian types would believe, even for a moment, that a former IRS goon might be the savior of an over-taxed populace:

This is like appointing Lindsay Lohan to be our Drug Czar...


I Am Iron Man said...

I hope the Republican voters are really serious about Bachmann... I have my doubts.

It would be a dream come true (for Obama supporters like myself) for Bachmann to end up as the GOP nominee.

I have enough faith left in the average non-Republican voter that I believe Bachmann is completely unelectable in a general election. She's nuts. And by the time a general election rolled around people would know this fact.

Anonymous said...

To answer your question regarding Palin support, I think its a combination of overexposure and concerns about electability for why Palin isn't gaining traction. Back in April, Trump was the frontrunner, then faded in May. Bachmann is the current flavor of the month. Once Bachmann gets more examination by the media, her favorables will decline. In fact, your polling show that the more exposure GOP candidates get, then less favorable they are to the general public. Romney is polling well because of his low profile.

Anonymous said...

In future polls, include Rick Perry and take Palin, Newt, and Santorum out. In fact, I think Pawlenty and Cain won't be lasting very long in the primary. The GOP priamry could be a Romney vs Perry vs Bachmann.

Anonymous said...

Believe it or not, Ron is the guy to beat Obama. From a policy perspective his positions are "water-tight" and there is no dirt on Dr. Paul. It would boil down to if you think he has the right policies to help America get out of the depression. Or if you are anti-war as most people that hate Paul, hate him cause of his anti-war views.

Obama's policies are digging us in a deeper hold than Bush put us in.

The Interesting Times said...

Palin's support is dropping because she is being seen more and more as "not serious" as a result of her interminable will-she-or-won't-she tease.

Anonymous said...


In case you missed it, Romney's net favorable rating in these primary polls have gotten worse and worse. He's a +19 in this poll. He was +9 in Montana.

You are right about Bachmann. The problem for her is that her net favorables aren't high enough at a time when she's getting good press.

YOur point about Palin and overexposure makes no sense. Her net favorables in this poll are +35. She has led in net favorables in nearly every primary poll. So your argument about how someone's favorable rating falls the more exposure they get doesn't seem to apply to Palin.

The most likely explanation is the one that Tom Jensen offered about people thinking that she's not running. She wouldn't have such high favorable numbers (when compared to Bachmann's net) if people thought she was overexposed.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"there is no dirt on Dr. Paul"

Ever heard of his newsletters?

Anonymous said...

Living in New Mexico I can tell you that the local conservative talk radio station has been denegrating Palin on a regular basis for weeks; and they have also been promoting Johnson. The word here on Palin, being communicated regularly by conservative local talk radio is that she is not running, and is not electable. If Palin does run, it would be no surprise to see her numbers increase in NM.

VotingGaryJohnson said...

‎Gary Johnson is a breath of fresh air compared to the other republican candidates. He is honest and smart! Its so nice not to be pandered to by slick talking sound bite politicians. Gary Johnson speaks slowly and eloquently, which does not lend itself to debates.

I believe Governor Gary Johnson is Obamas biggest threat. Its really hard for Obummers re-election team to paint a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, anti war GOP candidate who wants to legalize marijuana as a right wing extremist. His socially liberal stances will be attractive to democrat and independent voters. Not to mention he was a very successful two term(that's one more term than mitt romney) republican Governor in new mexico a state that is 2 to 1 democrat. He left office with a billion dollar surplus and was arguably the most fiscally conservative governor ever. He is a true Statesman and practices good stewardship of your tax dollars.

He also will not engage in mud slinging or name calling. He ran two campaigns in NM where he never mentioned his opponent. He will stick to the issues and not try to blame obama. I met Gary Johnson twice last year in my state of MO.. Once when he spoke at UMKC and another event he spoke at Missouri Southern State University. in Joplin Mo. He took the time to answer all my questions and sincerely listened to my concerns.. He is obviously working harder than the other candidates! For this he has earned my vote and support!

The Interesting Times said...

Dustin, Paul's supporters will claim he had no supervision over what was published in his newsletter of which he was sole editor and primary contributor.

You can't argue with someone who decided ahead of time that his hero is immaculate.

NRH said...

Ron Paul has been trying and failing for long enough that people have had plenty of time to evaluate and reject him. He's not some unknown new-ideas guy; he's an old kook with an unpopular extremist ideology that his cult following adores. 'Go back to economic and foreign policy from the 1800s' just doesn't draw people.

Kreationz said...

The most perplexing thing about this poll to me is Bachmann's support among those who purport to be "Very Liberal". Are they Democrats seeking an easy win for Obama?

NRH said...

"Its really hard for Obummers re-election team..."

"He also will not engage in mud slinging or name calling."

Ladies and gentlemen, the consistency and intellectual heft of Gary Johnson supporters.

Anonymous said...

As the field stands currently,
Ron Paul is the only candidate who has a chance to defeat Obama on actual policy.

Look up each candidates track record.

Romneycare is a health care, entitlement disaster.

Bachmann voted for the stimulus build just like all the other Washington crew.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"The most perplexing thing about this poll to me is Bachmann's support among those who purport to be "Very Liberal". Are they Democrats seeking an easy win for Obama?"

That's 1% of the electorate, and it's probably just people who don't know their @ss from their elbow. So you can throw those numbers out the window.

Leonidas said...

"The most perplexing thing about this poll to me is Bachmann's support among those who purport to be "Very Liberal". Are they Democrats seeking an easy win for Obama?"

Of course it is, if you look at the April Poll Bachmann and Gingrich had no support among the liberal and very liberal respondents, but now they show strong with bachmann and Gingrich looking like the Weakest links in the GOP field as far as actual electability.

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