PPP asked South Carolina voters who they thought the sexiest candidate for President of either party was. The results:
John Edwards 16
Mitt Romney 11
Hillary Clinton 11
Barack Obama 10
John McCain 4
Fred Thompson 3
Mike Huckabee 2
Rudy Giuliani 1
None of the candidates are sexy 41
Some Republicans have claimed that the media is giving more attention to the Democratic candidates because of liberal bias. But this poll shows that maybe it's just because the Democrats are sexier. Even in heavily Republican South Carolina, 37% of respondents chose a Democrat while just 21% chose a Republican. Of course the big winner was 'none of the candidates are sexy' with 41%.
The poll also shows that sexy isn't enough to get folks to vote for you. Among Republicans, Mitt Romney was the top choice in the sexy primary with 17%, but he was third in the Presidential primary. John McCain, leading for President, ties for fourth for sexiness among Republicans with Hillary Clinton!
Among Democrats it's a three way tie with John Edwards and Hillary Clinton at 23% and Barack Obama just behind at 22%. Sadly for Edwards' Presidential hopes, more Democratic primary voters think he's the sexiest candidate than think he's the best candidate for President. He received just 16% in that poll.
When we've tested possible general election matchups in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina they've all shown John Edwards as the strongest possible Democratic nominee because of the crossover support he can earn from Republicans. That trend continues to the sexiness primary. Edwards is second behind Romney among likely GOP primary voters.
Anyway, full results and crosstabs here.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Pat McCrory announcement: what I'll be watching
It will be very interesting to see what Pat McCrory says this afternoon in Jamestown. The basic question is whether he's going to run on his record in Charlotte or whether he's going to try to remake himself as a conservative.
Both strategies have their positives and negatives. McCrory has shown strong leadership as the Mayor of Charlotte. His status as a moderate (and Democrats nominating one bad candidate after another) has allowed him to do much better at the polls than a Republican should do in Charlotte. He can make a strong case to Republican primary voters that he's the only nominee who could end 16 years of Democratic control of the Governor's mansion.
At the same time, his greatest successes are on things like light rail, which aren't necessarily going to be real popular with Republican primary voters. One close observer of the race told me recently that he fully expects Bill Graham and Fred Smith will run attack ads on McCrory saying that he wants to bring light rail to all 100 counties of the state. That seems a little extreme, and I don't know how effective it would be, but it certainly seems plausible.
The ultimate question if McCrory runs a campaign focused on his record as Mayor is whether GOP voters are willing to sacrifice some ideological purity in exchange for electability.
The other strategy McCrory can pursue is remaking himself as a conservative, picking some wedge issues and really hammering on them. That's what Bill Graham has done with immigration and the gas tax. If he does that, he would need to be able to back up his campaign rhetoric with some proof of prior interest in the issues. GOP primary voters can smell a phony, and if he tries to make himself into something that his past record doesn't back up, he'll get hammered for it.
I think he'll probably run on his record. And that's what he should do. Then it'll be up to Republican primary voters to decide whether they want a nominee with an explicit conservative agenda who will get smoked by Bev Perdue or Richard Moore, or whether they're willing to nominate someone who is more in the middle but also more viable in November.
We'll know more soon.
Both strategies have their positives and negatives. McCrory has shown strong leadership as the Mayor of Charlotte. His status as a moderate (and Democrats nominating one bad candidate after another) has allowed him to do much better at the polls than a Republican should do in Charlotte. He can make a strong case to Republican primary voters that he's the only nominee who could end 16 years of Democratic control of the Governor's mansion.
At the same time, his greatest successes are on things like light rail, which aren't necessarily going to be real popular with Republican primary voters. One close observer of the race told me recently that he fully expects Bill Graham and Fred Smith will run attack ads on McCrory saying that he wants to bring light rail to all 100 counties of the state. That seems a little extreme, and I don't know how effective it would be, but it certainly seems plausible.
The ultimate question if McCrory runs a campaign focused on his record as Mayor is whether GOP voters are willing to sacrifice some ideological purity in exchange for electability.
The other strategy McCrory can pursue is remaking himself as a conservative, picking some wedge issues and really hammering on them. That's what Bill Graham has done with immigration and the gas tax. If he does that, he would need to be able to back up his campaign rhetoric with some proof of prior interest in the issues. GOP primary voters can smell a phony, and if he tries to make himself into something that his past record doesn't back up, he'll get hammered for it.
I think he'll probably run on his record. And that's what he should do. Then it'll be up to Republican primary voters to decide whether they want a nominee with an explicit conservative agenda who will get smoked by Bev Perdue or Richard Moore, or whether they're willing to nominate someone who is more in the middle but also more viable in November.
We'll know more soon.
Monday, January 14, 2008
A memo to Kay Hagan and Jim Neal.
Ok guys. You've been in the race for almost three months each. And neither of you is polling over 20%. An active Democrat I talked to recently called your campaigns 'comatose.'
I know you're busy raising money. That's understandable. But you're not going to beat Elizabeth Dole by doing one thing at a time.
You need to start attacking. Now. It's going to take ten months of non stop attacks to have a chance at knocking her off. So get to it.
I keep reading that you're making lots of speeches to small groups across the state. That's good. If you go to give a speech somewhere, put out a press release about how Dole has never been there in the six years she's 'served' us in the Senate, and that you're going to be a different kind of Senator. A Senator who actually represents North Carolina and comes back here on the weekends and gets out of the car and talks to real North Carolinians.
You're barely ever in the news. The reality is that just doing your thing doesn't get you in the news. Look at the Governors race. Fred Smith, Bill Graham, and Bob Orr have been running pretty low key campaigns. They're not getting all that much attention. Bev Perdue and Richard Moore are drawing blood. They're getting plenty of attention.
Start drawing blood. But don't draw each other's blood. Draw Dole's blood. Starting now, at least two times a week, send out a press release outlining how her tenure has been bad for North Carolina. There's no shortage of issues or opportunities to do it.
And I'll tell you what, going back to that money thing. Democrats in North Carolina are looking for someone who's really willing to take on Dole. You start bringing her down, you'll also start bringing in more cash. People don't want to make an investment until they see that you're willing to fight. So start fighting. And I don't mean next month. I mean tomorrow.
I'm one of those undecided voters. I'm going to vote for whoever is going to really be willing to give it to Dole, because that's the only chance we're going to have at winning this thing.
That's your free advice from this pollster.
I know you're busy raising money. That's understandable. But you're not going to beat Elizabeth Dole by doing one thing at a time.
You need to start attacking. Now. It's going to take ten months of non stop attacks to have a chance at knocking her off. So get to it.
I keep reading that you're making lots of speeches to small groups across the state. That's good. If you go to give a speech somewhere, put out a press release about how Dole has never been there in the six years she's 'served' us in the Senate, and that you're going to be a different kind of Senator. A Senator who actually represents North Carolina and comes back here on the weekends and gets out of the car and talks to real North Carolinians.
You're barely ever in the news. The reality is that just doing your thing doesn't get you in the news. Look at the Governors race. Fred Smith, Bill Graham, and Bob Orr have been running pretty low key campaigns. They're not getting all that much attention. Bev Perdue and Richard Moore are drawing blood. They're getting plenty of attention.
Start drawing blood. But don't draw each other's blood. Draw Dole's blood. Starting now, at least two times a week, send out a press release outlining how her tenure has been bad for North Carolina. There's no shortage of issues or opportunities to do it.
And I'll tell you what, going back to that money thing. Democrats in North Carolina are looking for someone who's really willing to take on Dole. You start bringing her down, you'll also start bringing in more cash. People don't want to make an investment until they see that you're willing to fight. So start fighting. And I don't mean next month. I mean tomorrow.
I'm one of those undecided voters. I'm going to vote for whoever is going to really be willing to give it to Dole, because that's the only chance we're going to have at winning this thing.
That's your free advice from this pollster.
Chatting with Bob Orr
I met up with Bob Orr for coffee this morning. He wanted to chat because he thinks I've been underestimating his chances at getting elected Governor.
He pointed out to me that he has a history of winning races no one thought he had a chance in. When he was elected to the Court of Appeals in 1988, he was the first Republican to win a statewide judicial race in North Carolina during the 20th century.
He also said he thinks our polls aren't telling the whole story because he believes that he will get a significant number of votes from folks who aren't necessarily regular primary voters. Since we survey people who voted in either the 2004 or 2006 primary, folks who don't fit that category aren't getting called.
He thinks that at this point there is a solid 10% of the GOP primary electorate solidly committed to him and that the other candidates have 8-10% as well. He believes that Fred Smith and Bill Graham are probably polling higher based on name recognition drawn from their respective BBQ tour and paid media campaign, but that a lot of that is weak support that won't necessarily be there come election day.
He grants he won't have as much money as the other candidates. But he also thinks that the folks who bother to vote in a primary will really take the time to figure out who the candidates are and make an informed vote rather than a random choice based on a tv ad they saw or a piece of mail they received. And that when they really give it some thought, he'll be in good shape.
I don't think there's much doubt Orr is the most substantive candidate on the Republican side. Whether substance wins out in statewide elections is a much more iffy question. It'll be interesting to see.
He pointed out to me that he has a history of winning races no one thought he had a chance in. When he was elected to the Court of Appeals in 1988, he was the first Republican to win a statewide judicial race in North Carolina during the 20th century.
He also said he thinks our polls aren't telling the whole story because he believes that he will get a significant number of votes from folks who aren't necessarily regular primary voters. Since we survey people who voted in either the 2004 or 2006 primary, folks who don't fit that category aren't getting called.
He thinks that at this point there is a solid 10% of the GOP primary electorate solidly committed to him and that the other candidates have 8-10% as well. He believes that Fred Smith and Bill Graham are probably polling higher based on name recognition drawn from their respective BBQ tour and paid media campaign, but that a lot of that is weak support that won't necessarily be there come election day.
He grants he won't have as much money as the other candidates. But he also thinks that the folks who bother to vote in a primary will really take the time to figure out who the candidates are and make an informed vote rather than a random choice based on a tv ad they saw or a piece of mail they received. And that when they really give it some thought, he'll be in good shape.
I don't think there's much doubt Orr is the most substantive candidate on the Republican side. Whether substance wins out in statewide elections is a much more iffy question. It'll be interesting to see.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
South Carolina Results: Obama, McCain lead
PPP did a poll on the Presidential primaries in South Carolina Friday and Saturday. Here are the results:
Barack Obama 44
Hillary Clinton 31
John Edwards 16
Dennis Kucinich 1
Barack Obama appears to be getting an 'Oprah bounce' in South Carolina, leading Hillary Clinton 42-37 among women. Clinton is not going to win any states where she doesn't carry the female vote, and this is one that fits that category right now.
There's also been a lot of speculation that Obama needed to put up a strong performance somewhere before he really got a strong hold on the black vote. His victory in Iowa appears to have allowed him to make that gain in the Palmetto State, where 68% of African Americans said they would give Obama their votes.
Obama leads the Midlands and the Low Country by significant margins. Things are closer in the Upstate, where John Edwards was born. There Obama and Clinton are knotted at 32%, with Edwards just behind with 28%.
It seems doubtful with Obama expanding his lead in South Carolina that Clinton will be able to come back for a victory in the next two weeks. That said, no one is likely to underestimate her after New Hampshire. Nonetheless it appears a victory in Nevada this weekend is imperative to Clinton's chances. The momentum that would result from Obama claiming victories on consecutive Saturdays could derail the Clinton campaign.
John McCain 28
Mike Huckabee 21
Mitt Romney 17
Fred Thompson 14
Rudy Giuliani 5
Ron Paul 5
John McCain is getting a lot more momentum off his victory in New Hampshire than Mike Huckabee got from taking Iowa.
It's been assumed that Huckabee would do well in the state because of the high number of evangelicals voting in the Republican primary, but only 16% of respondents to the poll listed moral and family values as the issue of greatest concern to them. As expected Huckabee is the choice of 52% of those folks. But more respondents chose the economy and jobs (27%), the War in Iraq (21%), and immigration (21%) as their top issue. McCain leads Huckabee 37-18 among voters who are most concerned with the economy and 36-15 with people most concerned about the war. Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson tied as the top choice of respondents who listed immigration as their top priority.
McCain has a wide lead in the Low Country, while leading Huckabee by small margins in the Upstate and the Midlands.
Full results here.
Barack Obama 44
Hillary Clinton 31
John Edwards 16
Dennis Kucinich 1
Barack Obama appears to be getting an 'Oprah bounce' in South Carolina, leading Hillary Clinton 42-37 among women. Clinton is not going to win any states where she doesn't carry the female vote, and this is one that fits that category right now.
There's also been a lot of speculation that Obama needed to put up a strong performance somewhere before he really got a strong hold on the black vote. His victory in Iowa appears to have allowed him to make that gain in the Palmetto State, where 68% of African Americans said they would give Obama their votes.
Obama leads the Midlands and the Low Country by significant margins. Things are closer in the Upstate, where John Edwards was born. There Obama and Clinton are knotted at 32%, with Edwards just behind with 28%.
It seems doubtful with Obama expanding his lead in South Carolina that Clinton will be able to come back for a victory in the next two weeks. That said, no one is likely to underestimate her after New Hampshire. Nonetheless it appears a victory in Nevada this weekend is imperative to Clinton's chances. The momentum that would result from Obama claiming victories on consecutive Saturdays could derail the Clinton campaign.
John McCain 28
Mike Huckabee 21
Mitt Romney 17
Fred Thompson 14
Rudy Giuliani 5
Ron Paul 5
John McCain is getting a lot more momentum off his victory in New Hampshire than Mike Huckabee got from taking Iowa.
It's been assumed that Huckabee would do well in the state because of the high number of evangelicals voting in the Republican primary, but only 16% of respondents to the poll listed moral and family values as the issue of greatest concern to them. As expected Huckabee is the choice of 52% of those folks. But more respondents chose the economy and jobs (27%), the War in Iraq (21%), and immigration (21%) as their top issue. McCain leads Huckabee 37-18 among voters who are most concerned with the economy and 36-15 with people most concerned about the war. Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson tied as the top choice of respondents who listed immigration as their top priority.
McCain has a wide lead in the Low Country, while leading Huckabee by small margins in the Upstate and the Midlands.
Full results here.
An invitation for the Moore campaign
Following up on my post Friday about how Richard Moore, the candidate himself, insinuated that PPP's numbers were biased toward Bev Perdue because one of her staffers used to work here, I sent Jay Reiff, Moore's campaign manager, this invitation tonight:
Dear Mr. Reiff,
Dear Mr. Reiff,
I was interested to see the Treasurer’s comments to the News&Record indicating that he thought Public Policy Polling’s surveys of the Democratic race for Governor were not credible because someone who used to work here is now employed by the Perdue campaign. In case you have not seen them, here is the link.
Although I can assure you that is most certainly not the case, I think transparency is the best response when situations like this arise. So I would like to invite you or the Treasurer to come and join me in the office when we conduct our next poll in your race. Usually we run the poll from about 6 to 9 PM one night and then process and weight the results the next morning. I’d be happy to schedule it for a time that would suit your schedules. I am eager for the opportunity to ease the
If you accept my invitation I will have to extend a similar invitation to Zach Ambrose with the Bev Perdue campaign for the sake of fairness.
I’d also like to thank you for your campaign’s touting of our numbers on your website earlier during the campaign. One of the things that most helps a polling company gain credibility is when candidates and their staffs promote their numbers and take them seriously, so I am grateful to you for that.
I will look forward to your response.
Best wishes,
Tom Jensen
An interesting editorial about McCrory
The Charlotte City Council, controlled by Democrats, didn't like Pat McCrory's committee assignments so they voted to create a bipartisan committee to study how those appointments are made and consider whether to change the process.
Despite their vote, McCrory has flat out refused to appoint the committee. Now the Democrats are responding by threatening to strip him of his appointment power.
This outlined in an editorial in today's Charlotte Observer.
I found this interesting on a couple levels:
1) Refusing to abide by a vote of the City Council? That's pretty remarkable. If he gets elected Governor, is he going to refuse to abide by decisions of the Legislature? Try to personally stifle the decisions of boards and commissions that he doesn't agree with? I think the four year war that would be likely to occur between McCrory and the parts of state government that would continue to be under Democratic control would probably be the Capital Press Corps' dream. Unless he realized that he just could not run the state with the same iron fist with which it seems he has tried to run Charlotte.
2) McCrory has made it clear that he is not going to resign as Mayor while he campaigns for Governor. I think that just enhances the handicap of entering the race with less than four months until the primary even more. Is he going to be willing to be a much less active Mayor and skip a bunch of meetings so that he can go to fundraisers and campaign events across the state? Is he going to be willing to concede a few inches on things like how committee assignments are made so that it does not distract from his campaigning? He's been a very hands on leader but it's hard to see how he can win this four month primary without taking a major step back to focus on the election. And if he does take that step back, will it antagonize Charlotte Republicans who resent his not fully doing a job he was reelected to just two months ago?
I guess we'll find out all the answers soon enough.
Despite their vote, McCrory has flat out refused to appoint the committee. Now the Democrats are responding by threatening to strip him of his appointment power.
This outlined in an editorial in today's Charlotte Observer.
I found this interesting on a couple levels:
1) Refusing to abide by a vote of the City Council? That's pretty remarkable. If he gets elected Governor, is he going to refuse to abide by decisions of the Legislature? Try to personally stifle the decisions of boards and commissions that he doesn't agree with? I think the four year war that would be likely to occur between McCrory and the parts of state government that would continue to be under Democratic control would probably be the Capital Press Corps' dream. Unless he realized that he just could not run the state with the same iron fist with which it seems he has tried to run Charlotte.
2) McCrory has made it clear that he is not going to resign as Mayor while he campaigns for Governor. I think that just enhances the handicap of entering the race with less than four months until the primary even more. Is he going to be willing to be a much less active Mayor and skip a bunch of meetings so that he can go to fundraisers and campaign events across the state? Is he going to be willing to concede a few inches on things like how committee assignments are made so that it does not distract from his campaigning? He's been a very hands on leader but it's hard to see how he can win this four month primary without taking a major step back to focus on the election. And if he does take that step back, will it antagonize Charlotte Republicans who resent his not fully doing a job he was reelected to just two months ago?
I guess we'll find out all the answers soon enough.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Richard Moore attacks PPP
The polls aren't going the way Richard Moore wants them to so he's attacking PPP. From Mark Binker's Decision 2008 blog:
Claiming that Perdue is up in our polls because someone who works for her used to be on our staff is ridiculous though. We don't give one rat who the Democratic nominee for Governor is. I've praised Moore and Perdue and I've criticized Moore and Perdue. The numbers we release each month are what the voices of Democratic primary voters who answer our polls tell us, and right now they're telling us they prefer Bev Perdue. If they start telling us they prefer Richard Moore, then that's what we'll release. We don't have a dog in this fight.
Moore's claim is pretty darn far fetched and what it shows is that his campaign is willing to grab at any little thing it can to try to diminish the credibility of polling that doesn't bode well for his candidacy. That makes me doubt that they really have any concerns about our methodology. If the problem was really IVR, they wouldn't have written stuff on their website touting our results in days when the numbers were better for them, and they wouldn't have gone down the Justin works for Perdue route. Our methodology would probably be fine if the numbers were reversed.
Moore has trailed in every independent poll released during this campaign as far as I know so perhaps instead of attacking the pollsters he should change the direction of his campaign so more of the folks we call say they support him. I know attacking a Democratic polling company sure isn't going to win him any more votes in the primary.
Richard Moore took issue with Public Policy Polling's latest survey that showed Perdue opening up a double-digit lead in the primary."That polling outfit, I really don't think you guys should even be carrying it. A good poll does not use a computer," Moore said. He also noted that PPP's former chief pollster now works for the Perdue campaign.
The latter part of Moore's statement shows the campaign getting a little bit off message. In the past they've attacked our polls because of our methodology and although there's no evidence showing that the way we do our polls is any less accurate than live interviews, it's at least a common complaint.
Claiming that Perdue is up in our polls because someone who works for her used to be on our staff is ridiculous though. We don't give one rat who the Democratic nominee for Governor is. I've praised Moore and Perdue and I've criticized Moore and Perdue. The numbers we release each month are what the voices of Democratic primary voters who answer our polls tell us, and right now they're telling us they prefer Bev Perdue. If they start telling us they prefer Richard Moore, then that's what we'll release. We don't have a dog in this fight.
Moore's claim is pretty darn far fetched and what it shows is that his campaign is willing to grab at any little thing it can to try to diminish the credibility of polling that doesn't bode well for his candidacy. That makes me doubt that they really have any concerns about our methodology. If the problem was really IVR, they wouldn't have written stuff on their website touting our results in days when the numbers were better for them, and they wouldn't have gone down the Justin works for Perdue route. Our methodology would probably be fine if the numbers were reversed.
Moore has trailed in every independent poll released during this campaign as far as I know so perhaps instead of attacking the pollsters he should change the direction of his campaign so more of the folks we call say they support him. I know attacking a Democratic polling company sure isn't going to win him any more votes in the primary.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
January Republican Tracking Poll: the Other Stuff
Lieutenant Governor:
Greg Dority 19
Robert Pittenger 17
Pittenger is the odds on favorite with much more money and support from the GOP establishment. But for now it seems Dority's name recognition from his Congressional campaigns is doing more for him than Pittenger's as a state senator. Dority leads in five out of six regions of the state, while Pittenger leads his base in Charlotte with the support of 50% of respondents.
Treasurer:
Bill Daughtridge 17
Dale Folwell 11
Full results here.
Greg Dority 19
Robert Pittenger 17
Pittenger is the odds on favorite with much more money and support from the GOP establishment. But for now it seems Dority's name recognition from his Congressional campaigns is doing more for him than Pittenger's as a state senator. Dority leads in five out of six regions of the state, while Pittenger leads his base in Charlotte with the support of 50% of respondents.
Treasurer:
Bill Daughtridge 17
Dale Folwell 11
Full results here.
January Republican Tracking Poll: Governor
Pat McCrory 18
Fred Smith 16
Bill Graham 13
Bob Orr 8
Elbie Powers 2
McCrory goes from second in last month's poll to the lead in advance of the official announcement of his candidacy next week.
What's interesting about McCrory's rise is that he still hasn't gained any support outside his base. His increase is attributable to rising support in the Charlotte area. Last month his standing in his home region was 44%. Now it's up to 57%. He's received an amazing amount of media coverage locally as he's contemplated the campaign and that attention is improving his numbers.
McCrory continues to poll in single digits in every other part of the state except the Mountains, parts of which are in the Charlotte TV market.
By comparison, Fred Smith polls in double digits in 5 out of 6 regions, Bill Graham does in 4 out of 6, and Bob Orr does in 3 of 6. McCrory leads despite hitting double digits in just two.
It's going to be hard to get to 40% just by doing well in the Charlotte media market. McCrory begins his campaign as the favorite for the GOP nomination, but his success will depend on how hard he is willing to work to reach out to voters in the rest of the state.
The Republican results without McCrory included hardly seem relevant at this point but here they are:
Fred Smith 21
Bill Graham 17
Bob Orr 11
Elbie Powers 2
Full results here.
Fred Smith 16
Bill Graham 13
Bob Orr 8
Elbie Powers 2
McCrory goes from second in last month's poll to the lead in advance of the official announcement of his candidacy next week.
What's interesting about McCrory's rise is that he still hasn't gained any support outside his base. His increase is attributable to rising support in the Charlotte area. Last month his standing in his home region was 44%. Now it's up to 57%. He's received an amazing amount of media coverage locally as he's contemplated the campaign and that attention is improving his numbers.
McCrory continues to poll in single digits in every other part of the state except the Mountains, parts of which are in the Charlotte TV market.
By comparison, Fred Smith polls in double digits in 5 out of 6 regions, Bill Graham does in 4 out of 6, and Bob Orr does in 3 of 6. McCrory leads despite hitting double digits in just two.
It's going to be hard to get to 40% just by doing well in the Charlotte media market. McCrory begins his campaign as the favorite for the GOP nomination, but his success will depend on how hard he is willing to work to reach out to voters in the rest of the state.
The Republican results without McCrory included hardly seem relevant at this point but here they are:
Fred Smith 21
Bill Graham 17
Bob Orr 11
Elbie Powers 2
Full results here.
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