Sunday, January 13, 2008

South Carolina Results: Obama, McCain lead

PPP did a poll on the Presidential primaries in South Carolina Friday and Saturday. Here are the results:

Barack Obama 44
Hillary Clinton 31
John Edwards 16
Dennis Kucinich 1

Barack Obama appears to be getting an 'Oprah bounce' in South Carolina, leading Hillary Clinton 42-37 among women. Clinton is not going to win any states where she doesn't carry the female vote, and this is one that fits that category right now.

There's also been a lot of speculation that Obama needed to put up a strong performance somewhere before he really got a strong hold on the black vote. His victory in Iowa appears to have allowed him to make that gain in the Palmetto State, where 68% of African Americans said they would give Obama their votes.

Obama leads the Midlands and the Low Country by significant margins. Things are closer in the Upstate, where John Edwards was born. There Obama and Clinton are knotted at 32%, with Edwards just behind with 28%.

It seems doubtful with Obama expanding his lead in South Carolina that Clinton will be able to come back for a victory in the next two weeks. That said, no one is likely to underestimate her after New Hampshire. Nonetheless it appears a victory in Nevada this weekend is imperative to Clinton's chances. The momentum that would result from Obama claiming victories on consecutive Saturdays could derail the Clinton campaign.

John McCain 28
Mike Huckabee 21
Mitt Romney 17
Fred Thompson 14
Rudy Giuliani 5
Ron Paul 5

John McCain is getting a lot more momentum off his victory in New Hampshire than Mike Huckabee got from taking Iowa.

It's been assumed that Huckabee would do well in the state because of the high number of evangelicals voting in the Republican primary, but only 16% of respondents to the poll listed moral and family values as the issue of greatest concern to them. As expected Huckabee is the choice of 52% of those folks. But more respondents chose the economy and jobs (27%), the War in Iraq (21%), and immigration (21%) as their top issue. McCain leads Huckabee 37-18 among voters who are most concerned with the economy and 36-15 with people most concerned about the war. Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson tied as the top choice of respondents who listed immigration as their top priority.

McCain has a wide lead in the Low Country, while leading Huckabee by small margins in the Upstate and the Midlands.

Full results here.

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