Thursday, January 10, 2008

January Republican Tracking Poll: Governor

Pat McCrory 18
Fred Smith 16
Bill Graham 13
Bob Orr 8
Elbie Powers 2

McCrory goes from second in last month's poll to the lead in advance of the official announcement of his candidacy next week.

What's interesting about McCrory's rise is that he still hasn't gained any support outside his base. His increase is attributable to rising support in the Charlotte area. Last month his standing in his home region was 44%. Now it's up to 57%. He's received an amazing amount of media coverage locally as he's contemplated the campaign and that attention is improving his numbers.

McCrory continues to poll in single digits in every other part of the state except the Mountains, parts of which are in the Charlotte TV market.

By comparison, Fred Smith polls in double digits in 5 out of 6 regions, Bill Graham does in 4 out of 6, and Bob Orr does in 3 of 6. McCrory leads despite hitting double digits in just two.

It's going to be hard to get to 40% just by doing well in the Charlotte media market. McCrory begins his campaign as the favorite for the GOP nomination, but his success will depend on how hard he is willing to work to reach out to voters in the rest of the state.

The Republican results without McCrory included hardly seem relevant at this point but here they are:

Fred Smith 21
Bill Graham 17
Bob Orr 11
Elbie Powers 2

Full results here.

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