Monday, April 21, 2008

Democratic Tracking Poll: Governor

Bev Perdue 45
Richard Moore 36
Dennis Nielsen 4

The Democratic race for Governor is in a bit of a holding pattern now. Perdue has led by 8-10 points in our polls over the last three weeks.

The race is basically back to where it was for all of 2007. Perdue generally led by a margin of about 6-11 points in our polling last year. The Perdue campaign had a much better January and February than Moore did and saw its lead expand a good deal in both our polls and those of Survey USA. Then the Moore campaign had a tremendous March and pulled even in our survey and others. Now the race is back where it was ten weeks ago and for most of last year.

It will be difficult for Moore to make up this margin in the next two weeks, but they've already proven once that they can come back with their backs against the wall so I wouldn't write off it happening again as the campaign closes.

One thing seems for certain. Moore does much better at negative than Perdue, and Perdue does much better at positive than Moore. Each of their campaigns is taking a direction right now that accentuates their strength, and it will be interesting to see how it finally ends up playing with the voters.

As usual Perdue's strength comes from black voters, with whom she leads 52-29. Moore actually has a one point advantage with white voters.

Full results here

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