Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Republican Tracking Poll: Governor

Pat McCrory 36
Fred Smith 31
Bill Graham 6
Bob Orr 5
Elbie Powers 1

There is no doubt that Fred Smith is whittling away at Pat McCrory's lead. It peaked at 12 points the first week of April and has gone down every week since then- to 10, then 9, then 7, and now 5.

That seems to be an indication that Smith's attacks on McCrory are working- but did they come too late? Smith's movement had been slow and steady, and with just one week left it may not be enough time to make up the rest of the gap. Smith has plenty of personal wealth, he'll need to make a huge investment this last week to pull ahead.

Another interesting factor is that Bill Graham is going on the air. At this point I would say there is no chance of a runoff with McCrory and Smith both in the 30s and around 20% still undecided. But if Graham can somehow push his support into the teens in the next week it may keep either of the front runners from hitting the magic 40 mark.

Full results here.

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