Thursday, April 24, 2008

SurveyUSA Crosstabs

I'm a day or two late on this one but here goes:

SurveyUSA, like us, shows Richard Moore leading with white voters and Bev Perdue leading with black voters. Turnout demographics could end up playing a pretty large role in how this race shapes up.

It was interesting to see Perdue doing a lot better with unaffiliated voters than Democrats in this poll, since it's usually the opposite. She's up 46-32 with U's and 42-40 with D's. It could be that her positive campaign pledge is resonating with voters who don't like politics as usual and thus don't identify with either of the major parties. Or could it just be a fluke- keep in mind as always that the margins of error on crosstabs can be pretty high.

On the Republican side, Fred Smith is finally narrowing the gap with voters who describe themselves as conservatives- it is now 33-28. It's hard to see a path to the nomination for Smith without winning that demographic given that Pat McCrory has a 22 point advantage with self described moderates.

One thing that amazes me is that McCrory is in last place and polling at only 8% down east. I don't know much about McCrory's ads buys but this would seem to be an indication he's done little or nothing in the Wilmington and Greenville/Washington/New Bern tv markets, or else they're just really suspicious of him out there for some reason.

There's nothing in the Senate or President crosstabs that really jumped out at me but feel free to look at them and leave a comment if you see something interesting.

1 comment:

Sean Braisted said...

15% of people who already voted in the Presidential primary are "undecided".

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