Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Breaking down the races: Dem Governor

Bev Perdue won 92 out of 100 counties in the race for Governor. Moore won Granville, Warren, and Vance counties which are his home base. He also won a few western counties- Caldwell, Transylvania, and Swain. Finally he won Anson- and amusingly enough- Moore County.

One thing I was surprised about in this race was that Dennis Nielsen really did pull 4%. We showed him around there in all of our polling but I never thought he would actually end up doing that well.

Perdue's biggest margins came in urban counties with large black populations- Cumberland, Durham, Forsyth, and Mecklenburg were all places where she earned over 60% of the vote. There's no doubt that her support from the black community carried her throughout this campaign, although she did better with white voters toward the end.

She also racked up huge margins in eastern North Carolina, as might be expected. She won with margins in the area of 2:1 or more in Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Craven, Currituck, Dare, Gates, Hertford, Jones, Northampton, Pamlico, Pasquotank, Perquimans, and Washington counties.

So she won her most important victories in the big counties, while winning her most dominant victories in the region of the state she calls home.

I'll have a post later looking at the Perdue/McCrory dynamic.

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