Monday, May 5, 2008

Runoffs Revisited

Ryan posts on the Dome blog about 'rampant speculation' on possible runoffs in the Republican race for Governor and the Democratic race for Lieutenant Governor.

I addressed this issue the other day but I'll do it again.

Republican race for Governor first:

Pat McCrory and Fred Smith combined for 74% in our poll today. The other three candidates combined for 12%.

For there to be a runoff McCrory and Smith would have to combine for 78% with a dead even 39-39 tie and the other three candidates would have to combine for 22%.

That means the also rans would need 10% of the remaining 14% undecided, or 71% of the undecideds and they would need for McCrory and Smith to run dead even.

Why would the also rans get 71% of the undecideds when they only have the support of 14% of those who have decided? The simple answer is they wouldn't. There will not be a Republican runoff for Governor. I have enough confidence in our polling and that of Survey USA to make that statement with relative certainty.

I can't really address the Democratic race for Lieutenant Governor because our data is private but on runoffs:

-There will be one for Democratic Labor Commissioner
-It's 50/50 for Republican Superintendent
-It's about 33/67 against for Democratic Treasurer.

If I had to put my money on it I would say there will be one statewide runoff for each party and a good chance at record low turnout June 24th.

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