Folks still seem to think there are going to be runoffs in the Republican races for Governor and Lieutenant Governor. They're not looking at the numbers carefully enough- it's not going to happen.
For there to be a runoff in the race for Governor, Bill Graham, Bob Orr, and Elbie Powers would have to combine for at least 22% of the vote and Fred Smith and Pat McCrory would have to tie at 39% each.
Let's look at the polls:
-SurveyUSA earlier this week showed McCrory and Smith combining for 68%, Orr and Graham combining for 12%, and 20% undecided. For Graham and Orr to combine for 22% they would have to get the votes of 50% of the undecideds. Why would they they get 50% of the undecideds when they currently are receiving the votes of only 15% of those who have made up their minds, and when they don't have the resources for final efforts to turn out their voters?
I would be absolutely shocked if there is a runoff, and the reporters and pundits who keep discussing it not just as a possibility, but as a probability aren't paying close enough attention.
Of course I will eat my words if I turn out to be wrong.
Discussing the WRAL Republican Lieutenant Governor poll, a local professor said earlier this week, 'you're probably looking at a runoff on both sides.'
In that poll Robert Pittenger had 25% with the other candidates at 9, 8, and 8 percent respectively. Going from there Pittenger, the only person running with any money, would need just 30% of the undecideds to avoid a runoff when he currently has the votes of 50% of those who have made up their minds. No logical analysis of that poll would lead you to conclude a runoff is likely.
I'll go ahead and tease on Monday's tracking poll- even with 45% or so still undecided in the Republican LG race Pittenger is polling at about 35% so far this weekend. In other words he is getting almost twice as much support as his three opponents combined. No way is a runoff in the future in that race.