Monday, May 5, 2008

Survey USA NC Poll

Survey USA's final poll in North Carolina is out.

In the race for Governor their numbers pretty much mirror ours. They have Bev Perdue up 52-33 where we had it 51-33. Either way it's over.

In the Republican race they have Pat McCrory up 38-32. We had it at 39-35. Pretty similar results. It really is just going to depend on who shows up tomorrow and I'm not sure anyone has a real strong grasp of that on the GOP side.

They continue to show the Presidential race pretty close- Obama 50 Clinton 45. We'll know soon enough!

4 comments:

Al Rodgers said...

Here's the cross tabs for the SUSA NC poll.

The peg the black turn out to the 2004 primary percentage of 32%.

but wasn't that primary, essentially, uncontested.

Harry Joe said...

Just leave with a thought...
Surveyusa nailed the African-American turnout in VA and SC... which people say are similar to NC.

See if that trend holds.

al rodgers said...

SUSA got SC backwards.

The had turnout W/B 55-41 and the exact opposite happened - W/B 45-55

There top line number was way off, as well - 43-30-24 vs actual result 55-27-18.

For VA - they nailed turnout, exactly.

Their topline number 60-38 was at the inner range for MOE vs the actual number 64-35.

In the end, turnout in NC could very well be 32% - I'd just like to their reasoning (ie it is a gut call, or is there a metric scoring systerm or is it simply pegged to 2004 turnout).

al rodgers said...

Ya know, I think NC will end up like SC, AL, MS, GA, and VA.

Looking at recent results, I noticed pollsters were way off on Mississippi. Obama won by +24, but pollsters projected +14 to +16.

That got me thinking about how off pollsters where on SC and GA.

In Georgia, Obama won by +36, but the best prediction came from PPP, who pegged it at +26.

I looked at Alabama and the same thing happened. Obama +14, but all the pollsters had low single digits . One had Clinton +2 and even SUSA only had Obama at +2.

Putting all this together with SUSA missing VA by six points, it occurs to me, pollsters are missing rural black voters.

There has been so much focus northern rural voters (WI, OH, PA), but barely a peep has been said about the rural south - which has a significant black representation.

Look for the results to be off by 8 pts. More than the 6 pt error in VA, but less than the 10 pt errors in GA, AL, and MS.

On Indiana:

Suffolk nailed OH and PA.

Zogby nailed TX and PA, but missed OH..

SUSA nailed OH, but missed PA and TX by 4 pts.

Rass is all over the place.

ARG has been favoring Clinton by
+4 (with the exception of TX).

PPP nailed OH and TX, but missed PA.

I'l go with an average of Suffolk, PPP, and an indexed ARG, and call Indiana +5 for Clinton.

 
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