Sunday, May 11, 2008

Rasmussen: Hagan leads Dole!

In a somewhat remarkable turn of events, Kay Hagan leads Elizabeth Dole 48-47 in the newest Rasmussen poll.

We will have our newest numbers on that race tomorrow. They are not quite as favorable, but still show Hagan's strongest performance since we started polling this in October.

Hagan's net favorability (53/30) is better than Dole's (56/38).

The key reason Hagan is doing so well is an 80-15 advantage among Democrats. Many, many more voters than that crossed over in 2002 and that helped contribute to Dole's resounding victory.

She also leads 59-35 among moderate voters, obviously a group she will need to do well with to have a chance in the fall.

This poll comes after a period where Hagan was on the air a lot with positive ads about herself with no response but nonetheless it is an indication that if she can keep Democratic voters in the fold and win over moderates, and that if there is astronomical turnout this fall of folks voting for Obama, she might just be able to pull off a shocking upset.

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