Friday, February 13, 2009

Another note on New Hampshire

Our New Hampshire poll this week showed Paul Hodes narrowly leading John Sununu and Carol Shea-Porter narrowly trailing him.

Looking at who the undecideds in those races are, I think Democrats are in even better shape than the poll immediately indicates.

In the Hodes-Sununu match up 33% of the undecideds are Democrats compared to just 13% who are Republicans. In the Shea-Porter-Sununu contest 34% not taking a side are Dems with just 15% Republicans.

It makes sense after a term in the Senate and an unsuccessful reelection that Republicans in New Hampshire would know whether they support Sununu or not. But since Hodes and Shea-Porter have each represented just half of the state, whichever one ends up as the nominee will still need to get better known by the other district's Democrats. It seems a safe bet that once that's happened, those undecideds will get behind them.

For a little while there yesterday afternoon I thought Judd Gregg pulling out at Commerce had set a new speed record for making one of our polls obsolete. But I guess if he's still not going to run for reelection the data is still important. You certainly have to like the Dems' chances here.

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