Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Q-Poll Good News for Specter?

Today's new Quinnipiac survey shows that 43% of Pennsylvania voters think that Arlen Specter should not be reelected next year, while only 40% think he should return for another term.

On the surface that's pretty bad news for the long time Senator. But digging into the crosstabs, I'm not sure he has that much to worry about.

The reason Specter's numbers are so bad on that front is 42% of Republicans don't think he should be reelected. But Pat Toomey has already passed on a possible primary challenge. Maybe there is another GOP candidate strong enough to take out Specter but I'm not sure who that person is.

If he can get through to the general election he looks to be in pretty good shape, with 41% of Democrats saying he deserves to be reelected. That's a remarkable amount of crossover support, and with none of the Dems' possible A-list candidates, like Ed Rendell, seemingly interested in making the race Specter is in an overall strong position.

It is certainly unusual to see a Senator whose reelect numbers are identical among voters of both parties.

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