I've complained before that the national punditry is oblivious when it comes to how vulnerable Richard Burr is in 2010, but Stuart Rothenberg has it as one of five races classified as 'narrow advantage for incumbent party' right behind the open seats in New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, and Missouri and the seat held by Jim Bunning.
That sounds about right to me at this point, without any announced Democratic candidates. If Roy Cooper ends up getting into the race I think you have an instant tossup but for now I think Rothenberg's designation is on the mark, and it's good to see one of the 'experts' realize how competitive this seat is likely to end up being.
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North Carolina Democrats draw sights down on Burr, 2010
From the folks over at Public Policy Polling, a fount-hause of the Democratic power-base:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/02/kudos-to-stuart-rothenberg.html
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Kudos to Stuart Rothenberg
I've complained before that the national punditry is oblivious when it comes to how vulnerable Richard Burr is in 2010, but Stuart Rothenberg has it as one of five races classified as 'narrow advantage for incumbent party'
It appears that the NC Democrats will have their eyes piqued and set to take on Burr in 2010 with guns blazing. Burr, alone, will never hold his seat as a Republican Senator from North Carolina, given that his yea vote on the original Bush Stimulus is at odds with the Conservative Democrats he needs to keep getting elected, and against the Conservative Republican base he needs to energize new voters.
Burr has painted his back into the corner of obsolescence in two strokes 1) by voting for the Bush Stimulus, and 2) trying to justify this wrong-headed decision by punting back to partisan hackery. Burr's most recent stand against the Obama/Pelosi Stimulus isn'r principled, it's partisan. And that's why he will probably fail to hold his seat in 2010.
No partisan, but only a principled Republican will ever be successful in North Carolina long term. The only answer for the Republicans, is to run another Republican against Burr in the primary, and beat him. The GOP nominee will have to carry with him the genuine bona fides of a Constitutionalist and a reformer.
Right now, the ONLY thing conservative Democrats will come back to vote in the GOP for, is a strict Constitutionalist reformer. That, Burr is certainly not.
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