This weekend we'll be doing our monthly comprehensive look at issues and politics in North Carolina and we'll roll that out over the course of next week but I am undecided about what we're going to do a survey on next week for release the following one.
Here are some of my thoughts:
Connecticut: Quinnipiac had the very interesting finding this week that only 42% of voters say they would vote to reelect Chris Dodd. I'm not sure how much trouble Dodd is really in, since 27% of Democrats said they would probably or definitely not vote to reelect him. Would they still say that in a poll where Dodd was matched up directly with a Republican? We would look at Dodd and Rob Simmons and see how that shakes out. Also, a Dodd retirement doesn't seem all that likely but it might be interesting to look at Richard Blumenthal or some other prominent Connecticut Dem against Simmons to see if the party might actually be better off if he did.
My sense is that Dodd will be fine, but it would be interesting to see.
Delaware: It would be interesting to see both how Mike Castle would do against Beau Biden, if he did decide to go for the Senate seat, and how former Lieutenant Governor John Carney would do against Castle if he decided to challenge him for the state's House seat.
Texas: We could provide an independent look at how the Rick Perry/Kay Bailey Hutchison primary is shaping up right now, as well as how Bill White and John Sharp look as Democratic candidates for Hutchison's seat. I'm not clear on who the GOP's best prospects are for that seat so someone would need to help us fill in the gaps.
Anyway, those are some of the things I'm thinking about right now. What do you all think we should poll? Is there a potentially competitive Senate race that's gone under the radar? I'll compile some of the best suggestions for poll topics over the weekend and let you all vote on what we do Monday and Tuesday next week.
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9 comments:
I think it would be interesting to see some polling on the Delaware race but there are a couple of other Senate races that might be interesting to look at.
Colorado
I think it would be interesting to see some polling on Mike Bennett is doing out there. Salazar only won with 51% of the vote back in 2004, but the state has been swinging Democratic since then it might be interesting to see how the Democrats are faring out there without Obama on the ballot to help boost turnout.
Florida
Sure this is one of those states that you never really know which way it will swing until after the election, but it would be interesting to see which way the state is leaning right now. The Democrats seem to have a lack of strong candidates interested in the seat while Republicans have had many strong candidates interested in the seat including Jeb Bush and Crist. It would be interesting to see how Jeb does in a Post-Bush presidency poll.
For TX, possible GOP candidates include (in order from roughly highest to lowest name recognition):
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst
AG Greg Abbott
Railroad Commish. Michael Williams
Fmr. Sec State Roger Williams
Fmr. Railroad Commish. Elizabeth Ames Jones
State Sen. Florence Shapiro
I'd love to see polling here, but you'd have to include a fair number of permutations. I'd probably limit it to White, Sharp vs. Dewhurst, Abbott.
Some match-ups that need polling (besides the CT and DE races you mention):
New York: Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D) v. Rep. Peter King (R)
Colorado: Incumbent Senator Michael Bennet (D) v. former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R)
Iowa: Incumbent Senator Chuck Grassley (R) v. State Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal (D)
Louisiana (GOP primary): Incumbent Senator David Vitter v. Family Research Council President Tony Perkins, Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne
North Dakota: Incumbent Senator Byron Dorgan (D) v. Gov. John Hoeven (R)
Oklahoma: Incumbent Senator Tom Coburn (R) v. Governor Brad Henry (D)
I think you should poll the Kentucky US Senate race. Poll Trey Grayson and Jim Bunning for the Republicans versus Jack Conway and Daniel Mongiardo for the Democrats.
A little biased here, but I say poll Texas. Gallup says we're the most evenly divided state in terms of partisanship...
If you do the Texas Senate Race, make sure you poll the Perry-Hutchison Guv. GOP primary. It has all the makings of an epic Texas brawl. The legislature is in session in Austin right now (they only meet every two years) and the Perry-Hutchison race is overshadowing everything. They already are mixing it up pretty good. If you do a poll on Perry-Hutchison it will probably be on the front page of every Texas newspaper and likely lead many TV newscasts. I have not seen a public poll since Hutchison set up her exploratory committee in December.
Texas, Texas, Texas. In Texas, I see the lessons of California. California was once a reliably-red state, but that changed dramatically starting in '92. The right candidate could go pull it off if they can run like Pres. Obama did amongst African-Americans/Latinos/younger-whites.
I am also interested in Hutchison's insurgency-campaign against Gov. Perry.
CA-32 - The Special Election for Hilda Solis' seat.
OH-Sen D Primary: Brunner v. Fisher
Brunner v. Ryan v. Fisher
Texas, Texas, Texas. In Texas, I see the lessons of California. California was once a reliably-red state, but that changed dramatically starting in '92. The right candidate could go pull it off if they can run like Pres. Obama did amongst African-Americans/Latinos/younger-whites.
I am also interested in Hutchison's insurgency-campaign against Gov. Perry.
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It is very simple. It will be won by Hutchison. Regarding general election, she will win against any democrat candidate with a huge margin. Following reasons
1) Conservative democrats love her
2) African American turn out in houston and dallas will never equal obama's election.
3) Women and latino votes will get split for hutchison. Usually,it is democrats.
4) Youth vote in Austin(like any other part of the country) already seem to show the signs of disappointment with Obama's nominees(Tom Daschle, Tim Geithener and so on). In some of the colleges, they seem to be stunned by Obama's missteps.
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