Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Ideology along generational lines in North Carolina

We know that generational change is making North Carolina more Democratic- the disparity last year between Barack Obama's 48 point win among voters under 30 in the state and John McCain's 13 point victory with senior citizens was only greater in one other state in the country. But is it making the state more liberal? Here's how ideology breaks down along age lines over the course of our polling so far in 2009:

Age Group

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

18 to 29

25

41

34

30 to 45

17

43

40

46 to 65

15

40

45

Older than 65

12

39

49


We definitely see that there's a linear relationship along age lines for both liberals and conservatives- the number of conservatives drops the younger the age group while the number of liberals increases. That said, even among the youngest age group there are still more conservatives than liberals.

One thing these figures point to is that the electorate is moving more and more toward being dominated by moderates than conservatives, as the age groups over 45 show the greatest number of voters being conservatives but those under 45 show the plurality as moderates. That's just another data point showing how centrist we're becoming- North Carolina is a pretty good bellwether for the country.

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