Monday, June 8, 2009

Turnout and Virginia

On our final poll 59% of respondents were '2008 only' primary voters and 41% voted in one of the primaries between 2005 and 2007. Given that about 150,000 people voted in the highest turnout election of that trio, that would put turnout somewhere over 300,000 tomorrow, which is higher than most people expect.

If turnout is lower than our poll suggests Creigh Deeds actually wins by even more than we're currently showing, and Brian Moran overtakes Terry McAuliffe for second.

Among voters who turned out for one of the low intensity contests between 2005 and 2007 Deeds is at 46% with Moran at 26% and McAuliffe at just 19%. Among frequent primary voters 48% have an unfavorable opinion of McAuliffe with just 33% viewing him positively.

Among what we would describe as more casual primary voters- those who only turned out for Clinton/Obama- Deeds has a much narrower lead with 36% to 30% for McAuliffe and 22% for Moran.

So at this point it looks like even shockingly high turnout would not pull McAuliffe through, and if lower turnout projections prove to be correct Deeds is likely to win by an even more convincing margin than we're showing.


Natch Greyes said...

Thanks for the update on methodology.

Dem Mom in Richmond said...

Anecdotal, maybe, but I called five Dem friends today. They said they may vote, they may not. Then I said, you know McAuliffe could still pull it out. He has plenty of street money. I live in Richmond and to a person, they all said, oh, no, they can't stand the thought of that carpetbagger winning. The fear of Mac pulling through by a hair motivated them. They're going to vote, either Moran or Deeds, but not for McAuliffe.

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