Monday, July 13, 2009

And the finalists are...

Thank you for truly a great list of ideas on where we could poll this week. Very good suggestions.

Here are the finalists:

California: How vulnerable is Barbara Boxer to a challenge from Carly Fiorina? And now that the Governor's race is down to a more manageable number of candidates and thus easier to poll, who is the front runner?

Iowa: A Republican poll out last week showed a strange dichotomy- Chet Culver with good approval numbers, at least in this political climate, but bad reelect numbers. We would test him against some specific challengers, and also look at fav/unfavs for some of the leading 2012 GOP Presidential possibilities (although among the general electorate, way too early to try to do it among likely caucus goers.)

Louisiana: This one will be getting my personal vote. How does Charlie Melancon do against David Vitter, and in general is Vitter really vulnerable or not? Plus, is Bobby Jindal more popular in his home state than Tim Pawlenty?

Voting is open until 11 AM Wednesday, we'll do the poll in the winning state over the weekend, and start releasing numbers from it on Tuesday.

2 comments:

Jeff said...

Thanks for including my suggestion! I'm definitely curious about all 3 states but I think Louisiana will tell us the most right now. In California and Iowa's GOP Governor primaries not everyone is that well known, so the numbers are likely to drastically change as time goes on. For instance in CA, Peter Foy, a conservative Venture County supervisor, is likely to run. He's little known now but has the advantage of being the most conservative in a field of relative moderates. His numbers likely would start out low but get higher if he has the resources to get his name out.

While Charlie Melancon isn't incredibly well known yet the success or failure of his Senate run is likely to have more to do with how Vitter is perceived than any other sole factor. We can immediately tell how popular/ unpopular Vitter is now and how much of an opening Melancon will have.

TTB said...

Woah, I never knew about this blog!
I strongly support Louisiana because...well...it's new. California is a massive state, and will no doubt get quite a bit of attention, and Iowa is Iowa, even if there isn't a truly competitive race there (yet).
On the other hand, Louisiana is a very red state (or at least trending in that direction), and the fact that Melancon can survive as the single congressional Democrat says a lot. By far, this is the most interesting race of the three choices.

 
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