Monday, July 13, 2009

Kirk, no Kirk, whatev...Giannoulias favored

It looks like the will he or won't he wheel of Mark Kirk's political fortune has landed on a Senate bid- for today anyway.

When we polled Kirk against Alexi Giannoulias in April they were knotted up at 35, but most of the numbers within the survey boded well for the Democrat:

-Giannoulias was winning over a slightly higher percentage of moderate Republicans (11%) than Kirk was of moderate Democrats (7%). When you have a state with a significant Democratic lean to begin with that's not a good equation for the Republican.

-While only 17% of conservative Republicans (Kirk's strongest base) were undecided, 23% of liberal Democrats and 35% of moderate Democrats (Giannoulias's strongest bases) were.

-Among moderate independents (Giannoulias leaning) 37% were undecided but among conservative independents (Kirk leaning) only 28% were.

There's no doubt Kirk is the strongest candidate Republicans could possibly have put forward for this seat. But the fact that the best he could muster in April was a tie when a significant swath of the undecideds were Democratic leaning means he's definitely starting out from behind.

5 comments:

Brandon said...

Are you doing a 2012 poll this month?

Tom Jensen said...

Yes, it will be out early to middle of next week probably

Anonymous said...

What are the chances that you'll poll a state that has not been polled by any company since the 2008 election ?

Montana, Idaho, Mississippi, Vermont, Maryland, Indiana ?

Indiana and Montana of course would be the most interesting to see if they were just flukes for Obama or if there's lasting change towards the Democrats ...

Anonymous said...

I think Indiana has a ban on IVR polls.

Anonymous said...

PPP and Rasmussen polled Indiana several times last year ...

And they are all IVR.

 
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