A lot of attention's been given to the likely decline in turnout among young voters and African Americans in Virginia and New Jersey. The other, possibly more serious, problem for Democrats is that even folks in those groups who are turning out aren't supporting Jon Corzine and Creigh Deeds all that strongly.
The voters under 30 in New Jersey in our latest poll reported voting for Obama 56-36 last year. But they support Corzine just 42-40 over Chris Christie this fall with 13% going to Chris Daggett.
It's a similar story with black voters in both states. The ones in Virginia on our poll said they voted for Obama 91-3 last year but now support Deeds only 72-19. In New Jersey the group went 81-14 for the President but now gives only 67% to Corzine with Christie getting 19% and Daggett 10%.
Democrats need to get those core Obama supporters back out- but they also need to make sure they're actually voting Democratic!