Monday, October 5, 2009

Following up...

On Saturday I wrote a post about how Democrats were still in trouble for next year even if voters don't like Congressional Republicans either, because the GOP leads 50-14 on the generic ballot with folks who don't like either party.

There's a follow up to that as well. Republican voters who don't like the Republicans in Congress will still vote Republican. But Democratic voters who don't like the Democrats in Congress say they will cross over and vote Republican.

Nearly a third of GOP voters don't like the job their party's doing in Congress. Nevertheless by a 66-18 margin they say they'll vote Republican next year. They may not like what they're seeing from their own party but for most of them voting Democratic is not a viable alternative.

Democrats aren't quite as unhappy with their Congressional leaders- the disapproval rating is a little over 20%. But in contrast to the Republicans a near majority of those who are disenchanted are ready to cross over- by a 48-26 margin they say they'll vote for the GOP next year.

There's a pretty clear historical pattern- when conservative Democrats stick with the party they win big and when they don't bad things can happen. The latter scenario is playing itself out when you see Blanche Lincoln trailing no name opponents and I imagine that when we start seeing individual House district polling in the south a lot of it won't be pretty.

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