Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Immigration Bill Fallout in Texas

Our poll of the Texas Governor's race this week is another data point indicating possible backlash for Republican candidates this fall in the wake of the Arizona immigration law.

When we polled the race in Februrary Rick Perry led Bill White by 6 points. The race is tied now, and the movement since the previous poll has come completely with Hispanic voters. With white voters Perry led 54-35 then and leads 55-35 now. With black voters White led 81-12 then and leads 70-7 now. But with Hispanics Perry has gone from leading 53-41 in February to now trailing 55-21. And it's not that the sample of Hispanic voters we interviewed for this poll was somehow fundamentally different from the previous one- Barack Obama's approval with them on this poll was 49% compared to 47% on the previous Texas poll.

Hispanics moving toward Democratic candidates since the Arizona immigration bill was signed is becoming a trend in our polling of western states. Previous races where we polled before and after the signing of the immigration bill showed Rodney Glassman going from a 17 point deficit against John McCain with Hispanics to a 17 point lead, Michael Bennet going from a 12 point lead to a 21 point lead against Jane Norton with them, and Terry Goddard going from a 20 point lead to a 46 point lead with them.

There's no doubt the immigration bill is popular nationally. But if it causes Hispanics to change their voting behavior without a parallel shift among whites then it's going to end up playing to Democratic advantage this fall. It's much more important to look at how Hispanic voters in states with large Hispanic populations are reacting than it is to look at the national numbers, at least as it pertains to this fall's election.

15 comments:

herbs814 said...

Obama, however, has not been the beneficiary of more support from hispanics.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/139379/Hispanics-Approval-Obama-Drops-2010.aspx

herbs814 said...

Hispanics appear no more likely to approve of Obama than before the overwhelmingly popular immigration law was signed.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/139379/Hispanics-Approval-Obama-Drops-2010.aspx

Hispanic support for Western Democrat challengers may be increasing, but Obama (and the Democrat congress?) does not seem to benefit.

Voters are frustrated with Washington inaction. But Hispanics do apparently support increased immigration enforcement about as strongly as they support Republicans in general. In other words, Immigration is unlikely to be a wedge issue that can turn Hispanics into a monolithic Democratic voting block.

56% of Hispanic Republicans say McCain is too lenient on immigration. Only 17% say too tough... http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_429.pdf

Hispanics who are Republicans, independents, or conservatives are not going to abandon their support for the rule of law and equal protection under the law just because crazy leftists and Democrats start whining about "discrimination" or "racism". Democrats only reinforce their image as buffoons when they make such false charges.

John Sanzone said...

Perry would have lost Hispanic support anyway over time...though the coverage of the immigration bill might have accelerated it.

Anonymous said...

The issue Republicans face is that they can whip up a brief intensity advantage among their existing strong supporters by pandering to their racism, but that rise in intensity doesn't actually sway any new voters to join them. But they can't move away from that strategy because Republicans have spent the last forty years demonizing all non-Caucasians both openly and trying to sneak 'dog whistles' under the radar.

That strategy worked for a while, but demographics have caught up; President Obama got more or less the same proportions among white and minority votes that President Carter got in 1980 against Reagan, but in 2010 the high margins among non-white voters voting against the candidate of the racist Republicans was enough to put President Obama over the top. Hispanic voters in Texas have historically been open to Republican efforts to woo them, but the Arizona law has started bringing them into line with other Western Hispanics.

Timothy said...

Sorry to be so blunt, this is wishful thinking on your part. However, it's nice of you to continue the meme of any sort of immigration law is bad for the GOP.

Did you ask your "Latino" poll participants if they themselves are legal residents, or did you just poll them for their Latino-icity? Also, did you ask them in English or non-English?

herbs814 said...

Fiscal realists understand that as long as we have a welfare state, we cannot allow an unchecked influx of low-skilled job-seekers. Unless we are able to abolish the welfare state, we MUST as a matter of self-preservation limit immigration and enforce violations of immigration law.

If we could abolish medicaid, food stamps, cash welfare payments, public education, rent subsidies, taxpayer-subsidized mortgages, etc... then we could allow unlimited entry (and support a stronger economy). But until the welfare state is abolished, immigration must be limited.

Only those completely ignorant of economics ("progressives") could possibly support both the welfare state and open borders (which is to say, the bankruptcy of the nation).

"last year, taxpayers spent on average $11,600 per pupil in California public schools, and as much as $22,000 for each child in districts receiving "small schools allowance." There's no entry fee to receive that education. Just walk in the door.
Then there's the fact that no one is turned away from health care in America for lack of ability to pay. Hungry? Food stamps. Can't pay the rent? Subsidized housing and free shelters."

http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/free-251934-poor-immigration.html

The Interesting Times said...

"And it's not that the sample of Hispanic voters we interviewed for this poll was somehow fundamentally different from the previous one- Barack Obama's approval with them on this poll was 49% compared to 47% on the previous Texas poll."

The fact that you do "sanity checks" like this one on your polls is one of the reasons I consider PPP to be a good polling firm!

Anonymous said...

HerbsNSpices is apparently unable to comprehend the idea of an immigration policy that lies between "zero immigration" and "unrestricted open borders." Facts like "illegal immigration is at its lowest point since before Bush was in office" and "illegal immigrants cumulatively pay more into public services via unavoidable sales and passed-through property taxes than they consume in services" just roll right off in the face of that unshakable faith in Ayn Rand. He's almost as bad as a LaRouchie, but at least isn't actively following an unrepentant felon.

Brittanicus said...

RED FLAG WARNING TO ALL AMERICANS AND LEGAL RESIDENTS:

ON MONDAY, a number of Senators led by Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) Sen. Hatch (R-Utah), Vitter (R-La.), Bunning (R-Ky.), Chambliss (R-Ga.), Isaakson (R-Ga.), Inhofe (R-Okla.), Cochran (R-Miss.) demanded answers of a possible plan by the White House to provide an Amnesty to the nation's estimated 11-18 million illegal aliens through an executive order. The move would take immigration enforcement out of the hands of Congress and place it in the hands of the Executive Branch. Call, Fax, Email or see your Members of Congress at (202) 224-3121 to express your outrage at Pres. Obama's plan to provide Amnesty through Executive Order. READ THE LETTER SENT TO PRESIDENT OBAMA BY THESE LAWMAKERS AT NumbersUSA. Already over 112.000 faxes have been sent by irate Citizens-legal residents to legislators throughout the country.

Every citizen-resident must realize this also influences--YOU--and your children's future, wages, culture, language and the deterioration of our most sacred document--the US Constitution. by Leftist extremists. THROW OUT ALL PRO-ILLEGAL ALIEN POLITICIANS? Since when did--MEXICO--or any other foreign country have a right to interfere with the "Rule of Law" in the this United States? How can they even reason of an--AMNESTY, when 15 million Americans and permanent residents are jobless?

If you want to stop 20 to 30 illegal immigrant invasion, it's overpopulation potential and reduce the amount of money stolen from your pay check to pay for their welfare, education, health treatment join the growing numbers of NUMBERSUSA. There are billions of dollars going overseas, across the border from those illegally working here--there feeding off us like parasites. Over a million people now realize we must unite to stop this epidemic--JOIN NUMBERSUSA--as a silent activist and remain anonymous, where radical open border zealots cannot torment you with racist slurs.

Many Americans and legal residents stay in the shadows because of the chance of being verbally or even physically attacked. Have a voice in this travesty of our immigration laws.Learn who your enemies are--the ACLU, US Chamber of Commerce, Council of Foreign Relations. THIS IS CORPORATE WELFARE--WHAT YOU THE TAXPAYER PAYS FOR? Learn the poor immigration grades of pro-amnesty politicians and eject them from office.Throw Harry Reid of Nevada and Madame Clinton, Morton, Holder, Pelosi. out on their backsides. They are anti-sovereignty as many Liberal Democrats, Republicans are? Numbersusa is building an army of anti-illegal immigration advocates and we need your vote, to stop this violations of our freedoms, our right. ONE FLAG, ONE LANGUAGE, AND THE US CONSTITUTION. California--A SANCTUARY STATE- Liberal-Democratic corrupt lawmakers have already sold their state to the illegal immigration occupation, that is why they are 20 billions of dollars in the red and fighting off insolvency?

Fight for the Arizona policing law and mandate similar for every state, city, town and community in our Union. Ask why only 1200 troops on our border to defend innocent Americans in fighting the drug cartels and other criminals, but will send 17000 national guard for oil cleanup? Ask why only a single border fence and uncompleted. Ask why not the two as planned, complete with razor wire. Fight back against the Instant Citizenship "Anchor Baby" law which has been misinterpreted, from the 19th Century slave emancipation post Civil War law. If they keep to the 14th Amendment as it is, then the child remains a citizen--but the Mother isn't (nor the Father) One parent--MUST--be a citizen?. If not--They must be deported.

Anonymous said...

Why keep moderation turned on if you're going to approve off-topic nutjob paranoid fantasies like Brittany there? Just using it to block spam?

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Did you ask your "Latino" poll participants if they themselves are legal residents, or did you just poll them for their Latino-icity? Also, did you ask them in English or non-English?"

All of our respondents for any political polls are registered voters, which means they have to be citizens. And we only poll in English.

"Why keep moderation turned on if you're going to approve off-topic nutjob paranoid fantasies like Brittany there? Just using it to block spam?"

We rarely deny comments. I think nutjobs like many of our commenters are just reminders that you can get someone to say they believe in just about anything. And it shows Democrats what we're fighting to keep from ruining the country.

Anonymous said...

Timothy, polls are usually based on populations from voter registration rolls. So, unless you are on of those paranoid delusionals who thinks that "the illegals are stealing our elections," that should answer your question.

herbs814 said...

Meanwhile in Arizona, Democrats are running away from Obama because of his radical opposition to commonsense enforcement of immigration laws.

Arizona Democrats are urging Obama not to oppose Arizona's immigration enforcement efforts. The administration's opposition will only reinforce how Democrats' position is contrary to the overwhelming majority of Arizonans.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/104885-arizona-dems-urge-obama-not-to-sue-over-border-law

Don said...

Herb814,

Please spare us of the OC Register links. That paper has a slant to the right like a one legged person.

Terry said...

Immigration certainly is a hot button issue in many of those south western states, and I'm surprised it hasn't backfired on the republicans there sooner. We simply need a more sensible immigration policy and more initiatives like the eb-5 visa program

 
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