Monday, June 14, 2010

The Monthly GOP Poll

For the fourth month in a row PPP's national look ahead to the 2012 Presidential contest finds Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee owning the top two spots, but Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich aren't too far behind.

Romney has 25% to 22% for Huckabee, 19% for Palin, and 15% for Gingrich. Ron Paul finishes further back with 6%.

As has been the case on all of these polls Palin is the most popular Republican, with 67% viewing her favorably. That popularity so far has not extended to support for President though. 58% have a positive opinion of Gingrich, 57% of Romney, and 53% of Huckabee.

Ron Paul's favorability with Republican primary voters, at 29/25, is actually worse than the 35/25 we found for him on our poll with independents. That's just more evidence that he might be a bigger player in the 2012 contest if he decided to run as a third party candidate than he would be staying as a GOP also ran.

Romney's lead is being fueled by a large advantage with senior citizens. Huckabee actually has the edge with voters under 65 but Romney's 29-16 lead over him with seniors puts him in the top spot overall. Huckabee leads in the South and the Midwest, while Romney has the advantage in the West and the Northeast.

The big takeaway, as it's been every month on this poll, is that the GOP race is wide open.

Full results here

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dustin,

Why did Romney and Huckabee jump from 48/18 and 50/18 in your national poll among Republicans to 57/14 and 53/15, respectively, among Republican primary voters (the same question can be asked of Ginrch)?

Palin was the only one to not jump among Republican primary voters.

What's the explanation?

Chris said...

Hiring a BLOGGER to do polling--- is like hiring a republican Senator to be in charge of anti- Whaling endeavors....

doesn't make since....

Especially if they are only polling their audience....

Anyone that touts Romeney or Huckabee as the go to man in 2012 is definitely suspect of drinking the GOP COOLAIDE....

IF Those DOuche bags get the GOP's nod--- it will be the first time the GOP Elite actually voted for something based on principle since the Goldwater years...

If they were smart.... THey would give it to RON PAUL either allowing him to play the BOB DOLE of 2012....

If he looses... he disapears,,,, Just like McCain will this year...

If he wins---- well,, we all know that wont happen (please note sarcasm)

So the GOP actually has the chance to hang the Albatros around RON's neck---- or Be winners at a cost of having to share the watering hole with a man who WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING>.....

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Hiring a BLOGGER to do polling--- is like hiring a republican Senator to be in charge of anti- Whaling endeavors....

doesn't make since....

Especially if they are only polling their audience...."

What are you talking about?

Anonymous said...

sounds like pure b/s to me.........

Hugh said...

Just out of curiosity, was the poll of Republican candidates conducted on just Republicans or did it include Independents as well? Since Independents can vote in many GOP primaries (including Iowa and New Hampshire), I would think it might have an effect on the totals if they were factored into there. Additionally, since the idea of Ron Paul running as an Independent has been promoted as a more effective way of spreading his message, would you be willing to conduct a poll including Obama, the GOP candidates, and Paul to see if he would achieve the 15% necessary to participate in the debates? If not, and since this is a Democratic polling firm, it would arouse suspicion as to whether this was suggested as genuine advice or for some ulterior motive.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Just out of curiosity, was the poll of Republican candidates conducted on just Republicans or did it include Independents as well?"

We screen for primary voters by asking what party's primary respondents usually vote in. We then only ask the GOP 2012 question to those who say they usually vote in Republican primaries.

wt said...

Ugh. Huckabee is now backtracking, and having surrogates say he *may* change his mind and decide to run in 2012.

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2010/06/11/huckabee-reconsidering-2012/

Eve said...

Why aren't you polling how Tim Pawlenty would do against Obama? He's being very cagey but talking like someone who will be running - which Jon Stewart basically said to him straight up the other night on the Daily Show.

 
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