Monday, June 21, 2010

The North Carolina Runoff

Tomorrow night when the results of the North Carolina Democratic Senate runoff are in there's going to be temptation to declare that either:

A) If Elaine Marshall wins, it was voters sending a message to Washington that we're going to pick our own candidates and not just support who the national Democratic establishment wants us to

-or-

B) If Cal Cunningham wins it's a big victory for the DSCC and the Obama administration, signaling that voters aren't that unhappy with the establishment right now.

Neither of those interpretations would be very correct. The reality is that only politicos and journalists have paid much attention to the parlor games about Washington's role in the North Carolina Democratic Senate primary. Last month we asked Democratic voters if they knew whether Cunningham or Marshall was the candidate with the support of national Democrats- 33% thought it was Cunningham, 32% thought it was Marshall, and 35% didn't even offer a guess. This aspect of the race is not something real voters have been particularly tuned into.

And the perception of national support certainly wasn't a negative for either candidate. Voters who thought Marshall was the choice of national Democrats supported her 74-11. Ones who thought Cunningham was their preference supported him 82-12. The fact that voters were generally planning to support the person they thought was the establishment candidate doesn't much lend itself to tomorrow night's results being much of a referendum on national Democratic involvement in the race one way or the other.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think it's a contest between NC Democrats who want to nominate John Edwards II or the tired old horse from the barn.

I know which one any decent-thinking person would pick, but you never can tell with some of these Democrats.

wt said...

So aren't those numbers themselves a big victory for the DSCC, the Obama Administration, and the establishment Dem infrastructure, either way? (with regard to Dem primaries I mean)

Anonymous said...

Yeah, WT... its kind of a heads we win, tails you lose type of analysis.

PackMan97 said...

The only thing certain today is that the Democrats will nominate someone who is a party loyalist and just like Kay Hagan will be a reliable "Yes" vote without bringing anything to the table or looking out for North Carolina.

dustin said...

Just voted for Marshall in W-S. I switched my vote from Cal, for a few reasons. Anyway, I was number 46 in my precinct. Very LOW Turn out!

Tom Jensen said...

Dustin-

If you feel like saying what made you change your mind? It seemed like you were originally pretty gung ho for Cal.

dustin said...

Tom,

It was a very hard decision!! I almost switched it back to Cal, on the way to the polls. What made me change my mind, was just watching the local news the last week, and seeing them both being interviewed. Also, I think the experience that Elaine has, will ultimately make it easier for her to defeat Burr in November. This was hard, and I will back Cal as well, if he wins tonight.

dustin said...

Tom-

I need to add, a lot of my GOP family member's, are MUCH more afraid of Elaine v/s Cal. This also made me a little "on the fence".

herbs814 said...

Those concerned about honest and fair elections are of course more concerned by corrupt Soros-funded Secretaries of State like Marshall and Carnahan.

In supporting candidates like Marshall and Carnahan, Democrats are supporting corrupt thugs who engage in voter fraud and shakedowns of productive businesses.

 
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