Thursday, June 10, 2010

Obama up in 2012 contests

Barack Obama leads all of his potential Republican opponents in hypothetical 2012 match ups, and it's becoming increasingly clear from this monthly poll that there are two tiers of GOP candidates when it comes to electability.

Polling close to Obama are Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. The President leads Huckabee 46-44 and Romney 45-42. They both do a good job of consolidating the GOP vote and holding a solid advantage with independents.

Doing less well are Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, and Ron Paul. Obama has a 47-39 advantage over Gingrich, a 50-41 against Palin, and 46-36 edge matched against Paul.

One thing that's very interesting about these numbers is that Ron Paul is the most popular out of the whole group with independents. They see him favorably by a 35/25 margin. The only other White House hopeful on positive ground with them is Romney at a +2 spread and they're very negative on the rest: -5 for Huckabee, -16 for Gingrich and Palin, and -17 for Obama. All five of the possible GOP contenders lead Obama with independents, but Paul does so by the widest margin at 46-28.

It has been easy in the past to write Paul off as irrelevant but this anti-politician climate is giving his movement some steam. Paul's going to have an interesting choice in the next year or so. If his goal is really to be President rather than to influence the national dialogue then he should probably keep on trying to win the GOP nomination, as improbable as that might be. But if he wants to guarantee himself a major role in the 2012 contest he should run as a third party candidate instead. Polling at 5-10% nationally in the general election would get his views a much wider airing than just trudging along through the Republican nomination process and hoping to get 10-15% in each primary.

The overall takeaway from these numbers? Obama is certainly weaker than in November 2008 since Huckabee and Romney do better against him than John McCain did, but continuing to lead all his potential opponents in this political climate isn't bad.

Full results here

24 comments:

Christian Liberty said...

All Republicans keep Obama to 50% or less. All Republicans lead Obama with independents.

Obama is incredibly vulnerable.
And this is before the Democratic party descends into a chaotic civil war, frustrated by the landslide midterm defeat.
And this is before it becomes clear that the bear market rally is over and the economy has begun its next wave down.

---

Bonus poll:
Obama 44, Jan Brewer 39 (RR)

Again, Obama is stuck at or below 50%.

Gregorius Mercator said...

As a Democrat with a strong libertarian streak, I find the prospect of Ron Paul running to be pretty exciting. I'd still probably vote for Pres. Obama, but I think it would be more difficult of a decision than any other match-up.

Anonymous said...

this would be short lived popularity if put into practice and the political process took aim at Paul. he's got plenty of crazy and hypocritical tied to his record.

for now, he gets to skate by as 'different'

Anonymous said...

Interesting. While your overall results vary from Rasmussen's head to head poll between Paul and Obama, the independent voter conclusion remains the same. I wonder if Paul was hurt in this poll by recent media storm over his son's campaign. I will be interested to see how he polls in your next 2012 poll.

cs said...

Fascinating! Are the implications of Paul's lead amongst independents a consequence of (1) independents identifying best with his fiscally conservative, socially moderate views, or (2) independents identifying better with a candidate that is honest, forthright, and not viewed as a politician?

Anonymous said...

Is anyone polling on challengers to Obama in the Democratic party?

I'm ready to work against Obama and have a new Democratic nominee in 2012.

Anonymous said...

Ron Paul 2012. Wake up to the two party establishment scam, America. And please no misinformed personal attacks on Ron Paul or skewed propagandistic portrayals of his positions, please.

Anonymous said...

So, let's see it!

Ron Paul vs
Obama vs
Other GOP contenders

Christian Liberty said...

Tax Hikes and the 2011 Economic Collapse
Today's corporate profits reflect an income shift into 2010. These profits will tumble next year, preceded most likely by the stock market.

Refusing to renew the Bush tax cuts will mean that Obama raises taxes (breaking a campaign promise) and crashes the economy

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704113504575264513748386610.html

Christian Liberty said...

Obama approval drops to new lows
44-48 among national adults (Gallup)

Dawn said...

More and more people are becoming independents, on both sides. California just passed prop 14, which I actually don't like, but this could be good if more people are independent at the time of the election! People on the right AND now on the left are dissatisfied, and frankly, I am tired of the negative, polarizing campaigns from both parties. I'd vote for Ron Paul, but I'd never vote for a Huckabee or a Romney. It would be like Obama/Bush, just more dogmatic and restrictive of personal liberties.

Tom Jensen said...

Christian Liberty:

We have been debating this in the office- are you a male or a female?

Christian Liberty said...

Tom (and others at PPP),
don't you have anything better to debate at the office?

Here is me at a Tea Party in April:
http://venusandlightning.com/sitebuilder/images/100_3350-364x487.jpg

Anonymous said...

Huckabee 2012! Abolish the IRS!!

Tom Jensen said...

No we definitely don't have anything better to discuss. You are the main topic. If it gets to be 1 or 2 PM and you haven't commented any yet in the day we get worried and hope that you are ok.

Dustin Ingalls said...

I was right that you are a guy. Tom thought you might be a woman, maybe Sarah Palin. I speculated possibly Tim D'Annunzio.

Anonymous said...

Paul will beat Obama and he will not run as independent. he will be GOP. it will be more government vs less government. God Help Us.

Captain America said...

Paul sticks to his word. he said he will never run as anything but GOP. he is the only good choice and only GOP that could beat Obama by at least 10%

Anonymous said...

Huckabee abolish the IRS? wait, where did he steal that from. Oh yeah, Ron Paul. Funny to hear Huckabee stealing all sorts of ideas from Ron Paul more and more lately. Good For Him. I only wish he didn't lie about it and say things like he was the "only candidate" calling for abolishing the IRS. You guys have a short attention span because Ron Paul was the only one who called it right about the economy and the rest of them didn't have a clue. I'd bet money that if Huckabee were elected that it won't happen. In fact, I'd even bet the the IRS will get stronger under Huckabee.

Anonymous said...

Hey, you need to poll Indiana. We are blind up here.

Marvin said...

Considering Obama's current approval ratings are only in the mid 40s the fact that he's still beating all GOP challengers is good news.

I feel like when the economy does recover more fully (which I believe it certainly will by fall of 2012) that Obama's approval will improve significantly and he should be able to beat anyone of these poor Republican candidates quite handily.

Kyle Sanders said...

Put Paul and Obama head to head in a debate on every TV channel in the country.

Anonymous said...

Just out of curiosity, what turnout model did you use? I plugged in the crosstab results for the Obama/Paul race into the 2008 turnout model (one where the Democrats had very high turnout, which will probably be lower in 2012), and I obtained Obama 44-Paul 37.

Tyler said...

It's great to see so many Paul Supporters! to all of you out there. there is no Republican/Democrat thing going on. They all work for the same people. BIG BUSINESS! wake up, Paul is the only one who takes money from individual contributors because he believes in our freedoms. If you think this is a red vs blue game you're getting duked! It's all about who is a real politician and who isn't. Paul is the only real Politician in my mind. Why do you think the GOP hates him so much and wouldn't let him on the second presidiential debate? because it was a private company that holds it and he doesn't take money to serve them. WAKE UP! THIS IS REAL!!! ALL OF THEM ARE CORORATE BIGOTS!

 
Web Statistics