We're polling Ohio and Wisconsin this weekend. Those will come out over the course of next week.
We're going to have to go into the field Monday for next 'weekend's' polls since we don't want to be polling 4th of July weekend. One of the surveys will be our monthly North Carolina poll- question suggestions always much appreciated.
The other we're going to give you a choice of Florida, Kentucky, and Washington:
Florida. The races for both Senate and Governor have changed drastically since we last polled the state in early March. Definitely worth seeing how much the landscape has changed from our point of view.
Kentucky. There was a little burst of Rand Paul-Jack Conway polling after the primary but we haven't done one since and I'm interested in seeing where it stands. I'd also like to see where Kentucky voters stand on some of Rand Paul's more interesting beliefs- what questions should we ask if this one wins?
Washington. Polling's really all over the place, just not all that clear whether this race is top tier competitive or something less.
Voting's open until Monday morning- something went haywire on the last vote so I hope that won't happen again and apologize to anyone who wasn't able to vote- have a great weekend!
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45 comments:
Kentucky
Questions on Rand's views:
1. Do you favor an underground electronic detection fence to stop illegal immigration?
2. Do you believe children of illegal immigrants should automatically become citizens?
3. Do you support Arizona's immigration law?
4. Do you support the war in Iraq?
5. Do you support the war in Afghanistan?
6. Do you support torture?
7. Do you support ending Don't Ask Don't Tell?
8. Do you support abortion?
What happened to the Rick Perry in 2012 poll?
In Kentucky ask:
How do we pay for a federal government that runs a 2 trillion dollar deficits?
1. Borrow money from foreign countries like China
2. Raise taxes
3. cut government spending and programs in half
Kentucky.
1. Do you support the idea of a balanced budged amendment?
2. Do you support removing birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants
3. Do you support term limits for US Senators and Congressmen?
Do you support Natural Gas Production over coal production?
"I'd also like to see where Kentucky voters stand on some of Rand Paul's more interesting beliefs..."
Yes, but not Conway's. Nice bias. Can you say: push-poll?
Does Jack Conway have some unusual beliefs that have received large amounts of national media attention? If so we'd be happy to poll them
Tom, oh, come on, the 'national media attention' is part of the bias. The other day, for example, there was an AP story about Paul 'missing a filing deadline' for disclosure, but he got it in within two days. The story is still echoing in the blogosphere when Paul's disclosure is in, and Conway has filed for an extension to AUGUST -- way to cover any utility donations, going to a controversy in the primary.
How about asking about subsidies to natural gas users over coal, and whether taxpayers or consumers should pay to subsidize such a new program? In Kentucky, I think that would be pretty controversial.
Given all the national media attention on Paul but none on Conway, how about this---
Do you think the media is treating Rand Paul fairly?
[x] Yes
[x] No
[x] Undecided
I'd like to see some Nevada polling. There's been surprisingly little for a race that's turned so competitive - two polls from Rasmussen, otherwise nothing (both well out of line with other pre-primary polling, but even so showing Angle losing a third of her lead in the week after the primary as her crazy ideas got more known). Particularly when you consider that Reid has a bit over nine million dollars on hand while Angle is about thirty thousand dollars in debt, this race could use some attention.
I would be interesting in polling in Washington for both the open primary and the general election for Murray vs Rossi and Murray vs Didier. Florida would also be interesting to see Crist vs Rubio vs Meek vs Snitker, in addition to Democratic primary polling between Meek and Green.
Yeah, Obamacare...
Conway is anti-gun, pro-cap and trade, pro-health care reform, pro-choice, and pro-amnesty.
Those seem like some good Conway topics...especially in KY.
Mark,
I like your suggestion on the media
Are ya'll doing 2 out of FL, KY, and WA, or only one?
Kentucky
For Rand:
Do you support the right of the each state to legalize/regulate drugs independent of the federal government via the 10th amendment?
"Are ya'll doing 2 out of FL, KY, and WA, or only one?"
As Tom said, one. The other will be our monthly NC poll. So NC and one of the three will be polled next week.
Is the release for NC and the winner out the week after the 4th?
Do you believe Rand Paul is a 9/11 truther?
Florida please, and Kentucky next time. Need to give Paul some time to come up with more crazy stuff.
NC Suggestion:
Include the Libertarian candidate. Rasmussen included an option of "other" which registered 7% and SUSA just had Burr/Marshall. I'd be interested in seeing if he's taking support away from either candidate. Thanks.
Kentucky hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1992 and the GOP has had the majority of House seats since 1994. In a Republican year this is Rand Paul's race to lose. Conway can't win it unless Paul is so unappealing that they can't vote for him. Considering that Jim Bunning won here in 2004 despite running a campaign that seemed designed to turn off voters, that's going to be hard for him to do.
It's important to see if they agree with Paul, but perhaps more important is whether they agree with what they think he believes. The Democrats will tell people he wants to repeal the Civil Right Act and send people to the back of the bus. If people buy that, he could lose.
Will you be doing 2012 polling for any of these states?
I'd like to see all 3 polled for that, but Washington and Florida the most.
I also heard that there was 2012 polling for TX and PA, but I didn't see any in your latest polls. Was I informed correctly, or did you just not do 2012 polling?
Not sure why bother including any Paul related races in any poll on the website as they will always win.
I´d strongly second the "media" question for the KY poll.
And maybe number 1 or 2 from the first comment. I´d be interested to see how a non-border state thinks about those issues.
So PPP doesn't waste its time Survey USA already polled on some of the "interesting beliefs" for the local Kentucky newspaper: http://tinyurl.com/338zt5a
Go for something plain like
1)What issue is most important in determining your vote:
Issues: Economy/Jobs, Deficit, Health care, Illegal Immigration, Civil Rights
2) Background: New to politics/experience in government
You could also drill down and do something like "Do you believe reducing spending will help or hurt the economy"
3) Since Kentucky is full of conservative Democrats I think the battle will be won amongst "Hillary voters" so... who did you support in the 2008 Democratic primary Clinton or Obama?
Also candidate perceptions of "Too liberal" "moderate" "too conservative" will likely play a huge role.
Oh, and after thinking about your comment
"Does Jack Conway have some unusual beliefs that have received large amounts of national media attention? If so we'd be happy to poll them"
how about:
What kind of senator do you think is needed to find solutions for our nation´s current problems.
a) One who sticks with established conventional ideas
or
b) One who brings to the debate new and unusual points of view
In three weeks again North Carolina? uh...
Im interested in Maine (including Snowe and Collins), Vermont or Wisconsin. The proposed races have many recent polls.
Question for Rand Paul supporters in Kentucky:
>> Which of the following makes you the most supportive of Rand Paul's candidacy:
[x] His issues/stances
[x] His "Tea party candidate" label
[x] Prominent Endorsements
[x] The son of Rand Paul
[x] Other/None of the Above
How about: "Rand Paul has labeled himself a candidate of the Tea Parties. Does this make you more or less likely to support his candidacy for United States Senate?"
Tom, Are you going to be polling the Ohio Attorney General race. Former Senator DeWine is running as the GOP nominee.
-Pat
"Is the release for NC and the winner out the week after the 4th?"
Yes, likely starting Tuesday the 6th.
"Will you be doing 2012 polling for any of these states?"
Yes.
"I also heard that there was 2012 polling for TX and PA, but I didn't see any in your latest polls. Was I informed correctly, or did you just not do 2012 polling?"
We did, but we haven't released them yet.
"So PPP doesn't waste its time Survey USA already polled on some of the "interesting beliefs" for the local Kentucky newspaper"
It wouldn't be a waste of time, because different question wording gets different responses. And that poll was conducted a month ago.
Suggested polling questions on Rand Paul's views:
1. How similar are your views to those of Senate candidate Rand Paul on the issue of [issue]?
Options: completely disagree, somewhat disagree, somewhat agree, completely agree
2. How likely are Rand Paul's views on [issue] to affect your vote in November?
Options: very unlikely, somewhat unlikely, somewhat likely, very likely
[Issues]: the economy, the Federal Reserve, health care, national security, the war in Iraq, the war on terrorism, alliance with Israel, the environment, civil rights, drug policy, the 9/11 attacks, Obama's birthplace, the role of Jews in government
I doubt you can poll all of these issues, but the ones I listed are a good assortment of issues important to Americans in general, issues Paul has expressed other-than-mainstream views on, and issues Paul has been accused of having far-from-mainstream views on.
If you poll WA, would you poll the open-primary? No one else does.
Yes we would poll the open primary and yes we put the Ohio AG race on the poll.
KY of course. Rand's candidacy (and Angle's) is a hugely important phenomena in that they really test the limits as to what types of extreme ideas that can be advocated such a person unelectable.
My Qs
1. Do you support changing the US Constitution to allow public accommodation-type businesses (such as restaurants) to deny services to people based on their race
2. 1. Do you support changing the US Constitution to allow public accommodation-type businesses (such as restaurants) to deny services to people based on their sexual orientation
3. Do you support continuing subsidies for large corporations such as oil drilling subsidies.
4. Should Roe v Wade (the US Supreme Court decision making abortion legal) be overturned?
5. Should BP's liability for economic, property, and personal injury damages be capped at 75 Million as provided by current law?
6. Should KY mining companies be subject to stricter enforcement of existing government safety regulations even if that means closing down more mines which are deemed unsafe?
7. Scientists report that the past year was the warmest on record for the planet as a whole. Do you believe them?
8. Do you see coal as an important source of fuel 50 years from now?
9. Do you support a phasing out of entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security over the next 50 years?
10. If you said "yes" for question #9 should people over 65 and disabled people have to pay for all their own living expenses and medical bills?
Do you agree with Rand Paul that your tax dollars should be used to enforce a restaurant's ability to refuse service?
Do you think our disabled veterans should be denied the right to have wheelchair ramps in private businesses?
Do you support farm subsidies?
Sadly I have a feeling the last question will be the one that turns Kentuckians against Paul.
you gotta poll FL. There have only been a couple of polls out on the mccollum/scott primary, which is going to be a real spectacle, and then there's always the rubio/crist insanity.
"but the ones I listed are a good assortment of issues important to Americans in general"
Yes, let me tell you, everyone I know is voting on the issue of "the role of Jews in government." Get real.
Do you agree with Rand Paul that your tax dollars should be used to enforce a restaurant's ability to refuse service?.....Do you think our disabled veterans should be denied the right to have wheelchair ramps in private businesses?
Gotta love the "sadly" line this person wrote after this one-sided stuff. Wouldn't a better question be: "do you support your tax dollars being spent to force private businesses to serve people they do not wish to"?
The law is that businesses must serve people they may not wish to; so the question makes way more sense there. The money spent now would be to enforce the law of making private businesses serve whomever the government tells them to.
Regardless, the Courier-Journal and WHAS11-TV already polled these questions through SurveyUSA. That same May 2010 poll had Rand Paul at 51% vs. Jack Conway in the general.
Anonymous, maybe you should at least finish reading the sentence before you comment.
Why not poll the folks who don't approve of Obama with the question: what would he have to do to get your approval? include some things that have already happened like cut taxes on the middle class or take steps to hold BP liable for the oil spill at Deepwater Horizon. Then ramp it up with: lower unemployment to 4%, bring the troops home, walk on water, etc.
I am reacting to the criticism of the BP 20mmm$ deal and the McChrystal firing.........
Wow, it looks from these questions that this is going to be a push poll. Is that the sort of poll ppp does?
"Wow, it looks from these questions that this is going to be a push poll. Is that the sort of poll ppp does?"
We don't regurgitate what people post here. That would be insane because most of these are absurdly bad questions. But we do take suggestions, and have incorporated some ideas.
Cam: Hilarious. That actually wouldn't be a bad idea. Poll after poll has shown people think taxes are higher than before, when they are actually lower.
I have a feeling that for most people who disapprove, the answer option would have to be "not be black" or "not be a Democrat." It's just irrational disapproval when times are bad.
Probably too late but a question on global warming will probably be important given the issue of coal and cap and trade.
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