Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Texas Governor: Tied

One of the biggest questions about the 2010 election cycle, which we still don't really know the answer to, is whether it will be solely an anti-Democratic year or more broadly an anti-incumbent year. Our newest Texas poll would seem to suggest voter fatigue toward long serving politicians in both parties- Republican Governor Rick Perry is now tied at 43 with Democratic challenger Bill White.

Texas would seem an unlikely candidate to provide Democrats their biggest win of the election cycle but the Governor's race there is a reminder that candidates matter. Perry is an unusually weak incumbent, while White is an unusually strong challenger. Only 36% of voters in the state like the job Perry is doing while 49% disapprove. Among independents the numbers are particularly bad- just 27% give Perry good marks to 55% who think he's doing a poor job. White meanwhile is better known and better liked than most challengers running across the country this year. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one and he posts positive numbers with independents at a 35/24 spread.

In almost every race in the country right now Republican voters are more unified around their candidates than Democrats are and independents are leaning toward the GOP. Texas is running against the national grain on both of those counts- White is winning 15% of Republicans while Perry gets just 10% of Democrats and White also has a 42-36 advantage with independent voters.

Things look promising for White but Texas is still a conservative state where Barack Obama is exceedingly unpopular and that could end up proving to be too much for him to overcome. It may end up that White is the right candidate just running in the wrong cycle. But for now this looks like a surprisingly strong opportunity for Democrats and a race that could certainly end up as one of the most closely watched in the country.

Full results here

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Proves that Rasmussen polls are skewed rightward.

Texas Poll Watcher said...

Outlier alert. Wasn't PPP the poll that had Kay Bailey Hutchison up by like 30 points over Perry? Great job, guys.

Anonymous said...

While I really want Bill White to win and I will be voting for him this election, I have a feeling that Perry is going to win no matter what. Texas is a large state with a lot of rural communities where Perry is very popular. So unless there's some really conservative third party candidate to take away votes, White doesn't stand a chance. Plus White was mayor of Houston, the most hated, picked on city in the state of Texas. People in other major Texas cities will vote for Perry just because they hate Houston so much. So even if it is by a smaller margin than usual, Perry is going to win no matter what. So just get ready.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Wasn't PPP the poll that had Kay Bailey Hutchison up by like 30 points over Perry?"

No, in February, the last time we polled before the primary, we had Perry at 39, Hutchison at 28, and Medina at 24, with 10% undecided.

Anonymous said...

You polled "Texas voters". Can you be more specific? Were they Registered Voters or Likely Voters?

Thanks.

Tom Jensen said...

People who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 general elections

Anonymous said...

Texans: WRITE IN DEBRA MEDINA.

Anonymous said...

PPP Polls

add 4 to 6 for Republicans

Anonymous said...

Hi,

Did you also poll Obama`s approval rating in Texas ?

I saw that you included Obama`s approval in the Pennsylvania release, but not in the Texas release.

nomical said...

This is what Rick Perry gets for making funny political brouhahas rather than actually governing.

Anonymous said...

Very interesting results.

I believe we will see a trend that, wherever Palin endorsed in a primary, independent voters will somewhat recoil in the general election.

Rasmussen's recent poll had Perry leading 48-40 with a 4.5 MOE. When you factor in the MOE, those results are not so far off from PPP's results today. This is clearly, at least for now, a closer race that Perry would have expected.

One question (not meant critically or choosing sides -- just really would appreciate a response): Rasmussen shows Perry with a positive approval rating of 53-45, while this poll shows a negative rating of 36-49. Why the disparity, in PPP's opinion?

herbs814 said...

"People who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 general elections" seems to be a rather light voter screen for a midterm election. The electorate is likely to skew a touch more Republican/conservative/male/older/higher income than that. (When the majority of jobs lost early in the **Obama recession** were men's jobs, men should be more motivated by self-preservation and more enthusiastic about supporting the lower tax, lower spending, lower debt, commonsense fiscal policies of responsible adults advocated by Republicans.)

the disparity between Perry's approval between PPP and Rasmussen is likely (in part) explained by the light (pro-Dem) voter screen. How durable any trend toward disapproval is may be important to confirm whether PPP is an outlier or a harbinger of a tightening trend.

** It IS indeed Obama's recession because Obama and the Democrats have needlessly prolonged and intensified the pain of the recession with their irresponsible and corrupt spending and their tyrannical legislation and regulation, persecuting the business owners and investors that create all of the wealth and all of the jobs. Wasteful and corrupt "stimulus", threats of higher taxes, tyrannical healthcare rationing schemes, and threats of energy rationing regulation/legislation have needlessly prolonged the recession. Democrats own the recession now. Statistically, Obama is just as likely to be faulted for the recession as is Bush. The longer the pain continues (a majority still believe the US to be in recession, by their own experience) the more the Democrats own the recession... and the more limited government candidates will be preferred. Americans want fiscal restraint and do not trust government to "create" jobs by redistributing the wealth of others or by government decree. All jobs and all wealth come from private enterprise. The less government interferes with private enterprise, the more just and fair our society will be. Americans (and especially likely midterm voters) understand this now more than ever.

Government is NOT the solution to our problem; government IS the problem.

Rhymes With Right said...

I'll take this one with a grain of salt, given that no other poll has shown results even close to this. Until I see such data from other polls, I'll have to consider this one to be an outlier.

Kenneth D. Franks said...

Good news as far as I can see. Do we really want Perry for another four years? I've met Bill White and believe he will be a better governor. The problem with Perry is that he has been in the position so long that he has accumulated and consolidated more power than any governor in my lifetime due to his appointment power. No one should be the governor of any state, especially Texas for 14 years.

Anonymous said...

Texas has outperformed other states, and Perry has done a good job.
White left a trail of debt in Houston and is for sanctuary cities...

Michael Collins said...

I take your polling seriously. I wrote about it during the 2008 presidential campaign. You were exactly on target for Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. SNAP! “White Shift” for Obama in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida Oct 15, 2008

I take this seriously too. If White is even with Perry now, before Labor Day, then Perry is in huge trouble. The lesson for Democrats is - good candidates.

For example, Obama got 1.9 million votes in Virginia in 2008. In 2009, a truly sorry Democrat running for governor barely topped 0.8 million. People stayed home in droves. Why? Lousy candidate by the Democrats.

Anonymous said...

Rural voters DO NOT like Perry. See his attempted land grab with the Trans Texas Corridor, that was to take away land held in families for generations.

Houstonian said...

How is Bill White polling vs. Rick Perry here in Harris County? Plenty of incumbents here in Harris County arrogantly plan to get to ride Perry’s coattails through straight ticket voting. If Bill White is polling well here, though…

NRH said...

Perry is not good at bringing in centrist voters. He won the governorship in the first place with a decidedly unimpressive showing in a three-way race by consolidating the hard right. He just won a Republican primary by consolidating the hard right. He's never had a grip on the moderate right, let alone the center. If Bill White wins the Texas governorship, then 2012 will see a fairer map, which might very well result in a change in Texan house or senate control, plus five or six Congressional seats flipping back to the Democrats, eliminating the DeLay Redistricting.

Mitch from Wylie said...

I have met Bill White walking down a corridor at the Democratic State Convention. He took the time even while walking along to his next meeting to hear me out on a few issues. This is a regular guy not full of himself and not in it for himself. He is a conservative Democrat for Texas and for Texans. Any political decision should rest on just how objective and hard working a candidate can be. White wins hands down in this category. Also it isn't about debt, but bad debt versus good debt, and most of the reason Texas is now in the black is because of stimulus money given by the federal government.

Perry's concept for Texas? Well, he said we should keep our "option" to secede from the greatest country on earth...

Bill, is the friend of all Texans, any debt he creates invests in Texas. Perry's debt creation was an investment in himself and his career political concerns, and any other debt in Texas was the creation of overly right wing Republicans. Fanatics left or right shouldn't run Texas and why is it bad debt to invest in hard working Texans and the future of our children here? White is squarely in our corner and this race isn't about Obama, its about a good Texan who believes in Texans running against a man, (Perry was a former supporter of Al Gore), who is in it for himself, a man who accepted all of the federal bail out money except the money for hard working Texans. The workers in Texas are the smallest of businesses in Texas and do help create jobs by their hard work. Piles of money alone don't create jobs, hard working Texans create their own jobs, and Perry turned down the support for them.

Real Texans, who are really for Texas, will vote for Bill. He has more under his hat than just hair. He might not be the "beautiful" big spending Al Gore style classy guy, but he's a regular guy and he's for us. For those undecided I suggest you get in touch with what Bill has had to say and not what others more interested in their personal ambitions than in Texas have to say. Any debt created by Bill was for you. It was an investment in you. Don't you like yourself?

Vote for Bill, it's a vote for Texans and for Texas.

Anonymous said...

Kathy Glass. Yeah, maybe she doesnt have a shot, but if perry is gonna win anyhow, I want my vote to show that I don't agree with him taking people's land for no good reason, I don't like him leaving the borders wide open and I don't like the steadily increasing taxes and steadily bloating government. go and see her website and make up your own mind. kathie4guv.com

 
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