Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Why Haley's Winning

One thing that seems to largely have been lost in all of the drama about whether Nikki Haley had an affair or not is what exactly is driving her dominant lead in the race to begin with. Our poll numbers indicate that it's a) general dissatisfaction with the Republican Party and b) a feeling that the party's gotten too liberal.

South Carolina Republicans are extremely unhappy with their party's direction. Only 27% like where it's headed while 43% think there needs be a change of course. There are vast differences in how voters are planning to cast their ballots today depending on which of those camps they fall in. With those who think the current direction is fine Haley leads Gresham Barrett only 31-29 with Henry McMaster just a little further back at 23%. But among the voters who think the GOP needs a shake up Haley is winning a staggering 57% with Barrett a full 40 points behind at 17%.

Displeasure with the Republican establishment is driving Haley's success just like it did for Rand Paul in Kentucky last month. In that race Paul trailed opponent Trey Grayson 47-45 with voters who were content with the direction of the GOP but won overwhelmingly thanks to a 59-28 lead with folks who weren't.

Haley is also doing particularly well with Republican voters who think the party's gone too far to the left. With folks who think the party is ideologically fine she holds a modest 33-26 lead over Barrett. But with those who think it's too liberal she's up 54-20 on him.

Angry Republicans who think their party is not ideologically pure enough have already nominated Rand Paul and they'll probably nominate Haley and Sharron Angle- the big question is who's next? If I was Jane Norton or another establishment figure with a primary coming up tonight's likely results would make me very nervous.


Christian Liberty said...

But that's the whole point: for the Republican party to be represented by fine, upstanding, honorable, principled people like Rand Paul that America can be proud of.

Christian Liberty said...

As predicted, Haley came in first and Angle won in Nevada. Congratulations on your accuracy, PPP.

Christian Liberty said...

Sharron Angle looks exceptionally strong. Rasmussen reports that not only did Angle win Republicans affiliated with the Tea Party, but also won a plurality among Republicans not affiliated with the Tea Party. "Angle won among both men and women, young and old, married and unmarried." She also has broad support among those who did not vote for her. "Overall, 78% of Nevada GOP Primary voters hold a favorable opinion of Angle. Seventy-three percent (73%) say the same about Tarkanian, while just 60% give a positive assessment of Lowden.
Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Primary voters say they’ll be likely to vote for Angle against Harry Reid this fall. Eighty-nine percent (89%) said the same about both Tarkanian and Lowden if they had emerged victorious. This is a very high level of support in the midst of a primary campaign (and higher than the comparable numbers in the South Carolina Governor’s race)."


Few signs of a divided party, even in the midst of a contested primary. Nevada is united behind Angle for Senate.

Christian Liberty said...

Angle 50 - Reid 39

no surprise. Reid is a goner.

Christian Liberty said...

Rand Paul is the right man for the Senate

Christian Liberty said...

Haley's strong finish shows promise of America

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