There's been very little change in public opinion on gay marriage in California since Proposition 8 passed by a 52-48 margin in 2008. Our newest poll in the state finds 46% think same sex marriage should be legal while 47% believe it should be illegal, with 8% having no opinion.
When Proposition 8 passed the black vote was seen as critical, and the continuing opposition to same sex marriage in the state is largely fueled by opinion among African Americans. 60% of blacks think it should be illegal to only 28% who think it should be allowed. Whites support same sex marriage by a 48/47 margin and Hispanics do as well 47/41 on this survey.
There's not much doubt that public opinion will move in favor of same sex marriage in California with the passage of time. Voters over 65 oppose it by a 57/34 margin, but those under 65 express favor for it 49/44 and that sentiment is particularly strong with respondents under 30 who support it 52/34.
Compared to a lot of issues opinion about gay marriage sees some spillover across party lines. 28% of Democrats think it should be illegal, but 20% of Republicans think it should be legal. We found wider party divides in our polling about things like health care and the stimulus.
It's safe to say that if gay marriage was on the ballot again in California this year the vote would probably be just as close as it was in 2008.
Full results here