Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Kentucky Senate race knotted

Kentucky voters don't think much of Rand Paul and as a result the race to replace Jim Bunning in the Senate is tied. Paul and Jack Conway are getting 43% each.

The more Kentucky voters get to know Rand Paul, the less they like him. When PPP first polled the race in December Paul's favorability was a +3 spread at 26/23. By May it was a -7 spread at 28/35. Now it's a -8 spread at 34/42. The national media attention Paul has received has hurt his cause with voters in the state- 38% say it has made them less likely to support Paul while 29% say it has made them more inclined to vote for him and 33% say it hasn't had an impact on their attitude toward Paul one way or the other.

Jack Conway has almost the same level of favorability as Paul- 31%- with much lower negatives at 29%. Usually you would expect a candidate with a +2 favorability to be defeating one with a -8. But Rand Paul's greatest asset in this race is Barack Obama. The President has only a 37% approval rating in Kentucky with 58% of voters disapproving of him. For the most part Democrats aren't going to be winning any seats they don't currently hold where the President's that unpopular but Paul's relative weakness is making this race more competitive than perhaps it should be.

Paul is winning 72% of the Republican vote to Conway's 65% of the Democratic vote. Kentucky may have the most conservative Democratic voters in the country. If Conway can get more than 80% of the vote from within his own party he'll more than likely win this race, but that may be a tall order when only 58% even of Democrats approve of the President's job performance.

The Kentucky Senate race may end up being decided by whether voters in the state find Barack Obama or Rand Paul more unpalatable- it should be a close one.

Full results here

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

Considering your last poll of Paul vs. Conway in May had Paul with a one point lead over Conway...I don't think this result matters. It's funny though, how Paul's general election lead is consistently smaller in PPP than it is in Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and even Research2000.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2010#Polling_3

everymananisland said...

Any comment on this criticism of your sample?

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/230765/some-expect-more-heavily-democratic-electorate-2010-2008-i-really-i

Bonncaruso said...

Your data is part of a larger trend that shows clearly that the GOP wave has already crested. If the GOP was really headed for a massive wave, then the two major bellwether states of the UNION (MO and OH) would show the GOP putting the DEMS away by miles, and yet, it is still very, very close.

NC should not be close, and yet it is.

KY is close because Rand Paul is an absolute nutbag, carrying white supremacist racial baggage from his father that he parses in cleverly worded trick sentences. But smart people don't buy it. Conway is smart, real smart, he talks well, he is good looking, he has the "whole package" and I can truly imagine that many democrats will come home to their party in November, regardless of their like or dislike for President Obama.

Likewise, in NV, Sharron Angle has all but guaranteed Reid's re-election. She is nutbag number two in all of this.

And Charlie Crist is proving in FL that one should never underestimate the power of the incumbency.

I am sure the GOP will pick up seats this year. This is normal in virtually every mid-term cycle. But the Tea-Party crap has just about worn out its welcome and anyone with two eyes can see clear as day that the TP is an astroturf group, just remolded conservatives.

So, let the wave come, but it will not be nearly as big as the GOP hopes for.

Anonymous said...

How did you arrive at the breakdown of Dem voters v GOP and Independents given there were far more GOP and Independent voters showing up even in 2008 - a mega Dem voting year?

Anonymous said...

The crosstabs show that this survey had 52% Democrats, 37% Republicans, and 11% Independents. The 2008 results (when Democratic turnout would presumably be much higher than in 2010) were 47-38-15, so we are supposed to believe that Democratic turnout will be higher in 2010 than in 2008? Using the crosstabs, if this race had the same partisan breakdown as in 2008 (which is probably being too kind to Conway), Paul would lead 44-41.

Anonymous said...

Looks like Ky. Republicans should have elected Mr. Grayson. Loose lips sink ships Rand.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"How did you arrive at the breakdown of Dem voters v GOP and Independents given there were far more GOP and Independent voters showing up even in 2008 - a mega Dem voting year?"

We don't weight for party. If you look at the McCain-Obama numbers, the margin is actually slightly larger for McCain--15 points--than what he actually got in 2008--14 points. Also keep in mind that self-reported party ID is different from actual voter registration.

Anonymous said...

Before the primary I spent a lot of time trying to decide between Trey Grayson and Rand Paul. I voted for Grayson.

Since the primary I have been disappointed with Rand Paul. Based on his televised remarks it would be hard to find anyone more unprepared to hold office. Has this guy has surrounded himself with complete idiots for advisers? Sadly enough his hatefilled remarks show him to be one who would condemn minorities and those with disabilities to the edge of society.

I wish Rand would step aside and allow the Kentucky Republican Party to fill the vacancy with a competent candidate such as Trey Grayson. As a conservative I'm seriously considering voting for Jack Conway because Rand Paul's radical fringe views scare me.

Mark Grebner said...

Interesting - somebody actually cited Research 2000 polling results. "Anonymous", but still...

Anonymous said...

They don't think much, yet the race is tied??

Dr. Horrible said...

You don't weight for party?

Well, that explains part of why Rasmussen eats your lunch for accuracy, I guess.

I seem to recall Gallup (which in 2004 showed an incredible one-week 20+ point swing in a slow week in the PotUS race) makes the same error, with similar results.

Anonymous said...

Paul may indeed now be neck-and-neck versus Conway, but referencing PPP is weak evidence. I'm amazed, frankly, when conservative critics refer to Gallop. It's always slanted inaccurately leftward -- but not as much as PPP.

Wait for Rasmussen. If it's close there, it's close. If Paul is losing there, he's probably losing.

Anonymous said...

push poll.

NRH said...

Wait for Rasmussen? The same outfit that showed Rand Paul with a 24-point lead immediately after the primaries, then hastily adjusted their numbers down to a 9-point lead a week later after other polling showed the race within low single digits?

And someone is calling Gallup left-leaning and prone to big jumps? That's just laughable. Ras likes trying to set narratives more than he likes reporting reality. His polling is always Republican-leaning until he adjusts his likely-voter models two weeks before the election to reflect something closer to reality. And oddly enough he's refused to poll any primaries this year when it gets close to election day...

Anonymous said...

Bonncaruso is a litany of phony liberal talking points, but they dont make sense.

Democrat ex-KKK member Byrd was laid to rest recently, and his service was praised by fellow democrats. Yet the party of segregation throws the race card at the party - the GOP - that has consistently been for civil rights since its founding. His racist accusations are disgusting and unfounded.

The GOP wave has crested? we'll know in november, but ... 6 million jobs lost under the Democrats since pelosi became speaker and Reid majority leader. The Democrat agenda is not working, and all they have is name-calling and cat-calling. This is not about 'dislike' for Obama... This is about firing the Democrats for malfeasance, incompetence, squandering the treasury, and screwing the economy worse than BP screwed the gulf.

Millions of Americans have been laid off in this recession. The Democrat politics of distraction, blame-game, race-baiting, TeaParty-bashing does NOTHING to fix our problems. NOTHING. The Democrats have a borken, failed, wrong agenda that dragging America down, and it's time to lay off the Democrat enablers of our economic misery.

Anonymous said...

I was originally planning to vote for Rand in the GOP primary. Thank God I didn't as Rand is a joke. He, his family, and friends are just a bunch on liars and con artists who scare people into buying gold.

Anonymous said...

I kindly ask you to reveal how you weight your surveys. I also ask you to reveal who pays for your surveys.

Lastly, please tell us the percent that reflects the number of completed calls divided by the number of total calls attempted. Without this information we cannot determine whether your survey is accurate in its turn-out prediction.

Lisa Graas said...

I'm a conservative Kentucky Republican and have voted as such for over twenty years. This is the first time I've been without a candidate in the Senate race.

I think the demographic information adds credibility to your poll. It's consistent with Kentucky voters, including the McCain/Obama question. The only thing that kind of surprised me was that the number was so high on the question of whether or not businesses should be allowed to discriminate on the basis of race. I wasn't surprised because I think Kentucky is racist. I was surprised because Paul supporters were so actively pushing that point here, in defense of him, that I thought they might have actually convinced more than 9% of voters that he was right on that issue. For example, recently (after this polling was done, I believe), Louisville radio host Mandy Connell told him in an interview that she agreed with him on that point. Having said that, I do think it was Paul supporters' push to defend him on that point that has turned so many people off.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Well, that explains part of why Rasmussen eats your lunch for accuracy, I guess."

Not according to Nate Silver or the Wall Street Journal or any other objective analyst.

"I also ask you to reveal who pays for your surveys."

No one. All the surveys we release publicly are pro bono.

Anonymous said...

Bonn - I remember you from HHR. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

See the NC poll?

Jensen is a hack and he will adjust his polls in October so he can be "right".

More Dems as a % will go to the polls than in 08. You seriously believe this garbage

Anonymous said...

I am a Republican who is considering voting for a Democrat because.....

Guys, do you really think you are fooling anyone?

Anonymous said...

Nice call on the TX primary.

Can you please release your poll that shows Reid ahead by 5? We have been expecting that one for a week.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for answering who pays for your surveys! Just out of curiousity, how much does each call cost you? IVR is cheaper so I assume a few cents, no?

But again:

1) Please reveal how you weight your surveys. By age? By geography? By party?

2) And please release the total number of attempted calls for your surveys. What is your completion percentage? How big of a likely voter universe do your polls assume?

Sorry for being aggressive but this is information your company should already be releasing, or at least should seriously consider releasing. Research 2000 may actually conduct their surveys but their lack of transparency has seriously undermined their credibility and the assumptions made by the blogosphere are pretty much ending their tenure as a pollster. Please answer my questions! Thanks in advance.

sth_txs said...

"KY is close because Rand Paul is an absolute nutbag, carrying white supremacist racial baggage from his father that he parses in cleverly worded trick sentences."

Only morons believes that the Pauls are racist. This is a media invention to disredit their platform. Keep in mind the mainstream GOP do not like the Pauls since they are not for perpetual war and more statism.

Any media outlet that reports this as fact is garbage.

Rachel Maddow and other liberals will always be the real racist. I doubt her primary neighborhood is filled with blacks. Until wealthy liberals make minority and high crime neighborhoods their primary residence, I will always regard liberals as worse than KKK biggots because of their hypocrisy.

Christian Liberty said...

Democrats have always been the party of racism. Republicans have always been the party of equal justice under the law.

Throughout all of America's history, all racism has come from the Democrats and all justice has come from Republicans.

Republicans have always been right on race. And Democrats have always been wrong on race.

That is why the demagoguery from the left will never work. America will see the truth. Rand Paul is what America wants and what America needs.

 
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