Barack Obama's approval numbers hit a record low in PPP's national survey this month, but that doesn't seem to be having too much impact on how his party does in generic Congressional polling. We find a 43/43 tie on this month's look at the generic ballot.
As has been the case throughout most of this cycle Republicans are a little bit more unified than Democrats are, and independents are leaning toward the GOP as well. 87% of Republicans are committed to voting for their party this fall, while 84% of Democrats are. Independents say they'll vote Republican by a 38-31 margin.
Among voters who are 'very excited' about voting this fall Republicans hold a 52-40 advantage. How much that matters is up for debate though. Scott Brown led the Massachusetts Senate race 59-40 with 'very excited' voters but won by only 5. Chris Christie led the New Jersey Governor's race 60-34 with 'very excited' voters but his final margin of victory was only 4 points. As I've said before unexcited voters count the same as excited ones and our polling so far this cycle has suggested the Democrats who answer our surveys vote, whether they're excited about it or not. So I'm not sure how much the wide GOP advantage with 'very excited' voters really matters.
There continues to be no doubt this fall's election will have more to do with whether Democrats can turn out Obama voters than keep them in the fold. Very few voters are shifting their allegiance from the 2008 election- 8% of Obama voters say they'll vote Republican this time but an almost equal 6% of McCain voters say they'll vote Democratic this time. When it comes to voters switching sides it's basically a wash, but Republicans are doing well across the country due to Democratic disengagement.
The extreme unpopularity of both parties in Congress is a broken record now, but only 33% of voters approve of the job Congressional Democrats are doing to 57% disapproving and for Congressional Republicans the numbers are even worse with 20% approving and 60% disapproving. If anything mitigates Democratic losses this fall it will be the inability of the Republicans to cast themselves as a viable alternative.
Full results here