Benefiting from her Republican candidates gashing the heck out of each other, Alex Sink has opened up an unlikely lead in the Florida Governor's race. She's up 36-30 on Rick Scott, with Bud Chiles getting 13% and 37-23 on Bill McCollum with Chiles getting 14%.
Scott and McCollum both have very poor favorability numbers. Their primary battle has completely turned off Democrats and independents, and Republicans aren't seeing them very positively either. 23% of voters have a favorable opinion of Scott while 41% view him unfavorably. While only 34% of Republicans view him positively, 40% of independents and 52% of Democrats see him unfavorably. McCollum's numbers are even worse. Only 16% have a favorable opinion of him with 51% holding a negative one. Just 27% of GOP voters see him favorably, while 59% of Democrats and 57% of independents have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Sink is pretty much a blank slate to voters in the state, with 54% of voters having no opinion of her. Most striking in her numbers is that independents see her favorably by a better than 2:1 margin, 32/15. She is likely benefiting from being able to stay above the fray while the Republican candidates go after each other.
In the head to heads Sink benefits from a more unified party than either Republican candidate and also wins independent voters. She gets 62% of Democrats to Scott's 52% of Republicans and leads him 36-28 with independents. She gets 61% of Democrats to McCollum's 45% of Republicans and leads him 40-12 with independents.
Despite his double digit performance Bud Chiles isn't having a particularly strong impact at this point because he's not pulling disproportionately from either Democratic or Republican leaning voters. Against Scott he gets 14% of McCain voters and 11% of Obama voters, and against McCollum he gets 14% of McCain voters and 13% of Obama voters.
It's been a pretty remarkable turnaround for Sink, who trailed McCollum 44-31 in a head to head contest when PPP last surveyed Florida in March. It's important to note that in the more likely instance that she faces Scott 25% of Republican voters are undecided to only 16% of Democrats so this race should tighten once the GOP has a nominee. How well the GOP can heal and get on the same page after the primary could determine this race though- there's little doubt that Scott and McCollum's supporters hate each other and that could end up handing Sink a victory that four months ago appeared very unlikely.
Full results here