The winners of our vote on where to poll next week were Arizona and South Carolina. Would appreciate question suggestions for those two states. Most interested in getting ideas for who to test against Jon Kyl for the Senate in Arizona. As we said earlier this week we are not going to poll Gabrielle Giffords. If she gets well and expresses interest we can certainly do it further down the line but for now we don't think that's real appropriate. We'll definitely do Janet Napolitano and beyond that would appreciate your suggestions.
Any other ideas for things we should ask in those two states would be appreciated as well, thanks!
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South Carolina:
Lyndsey Graham vs. State Sen. Tom Davis (R-Beaufort)
Lyndsey Graham vs. Mark Sanford
Lyndsey Graham vs. Mick Mulvaney
Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon.
I don't think you should ask if AZ voters want Loughner to receive the death penalty.
Rasmussen just released a poll today, in which voters say by more than 2:1 that he should be executed.
...
You could ask if voters in the 2 states like to eliminate the Electoral College and elect the President of the United States by National Popular Vote.
It's a difficult question to ask, but SC is adding a new seat in redistricting and there has been a lot of talk at Swing State Project about how it would definitely be possible to have the new district be a second Voting Rights Act district (majority-minority) if the Obama DOJ felt like pursuing that. I wonder how the people of SC would feel about being required to add a second majority-minority district, but asking that question involves explaining the VRA.
In SC, if you're going to do the Republican primary- perhaps you could do a Huck- and a non-Huck field?
He's committed to hold off his decision 'till late summer, apparently contemplating 2016 instead. Who would inherit those votes in that crucial state certainly seems interesting.
For Arizona: Terry Goddard, Jim Pederson
Tom, I know it's not the 2014 election cycle but are you willing to see if Lindsey Graham is vulnerable in the primary? Definitely ask something about DeMint as well...
For Arizona...
Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano
Former 1st District Representative Ann Kirkpatrick
Attorney and loser against Ben Quayle: Jon Hulburd
Former Attorney General Terry Goddard
State Senator Steve Gallardo (D)
Republicans:
Jon Kyl - Incumbent US Senator
There is a very real possibility he might retire...
If he does, (and I suppose he could face a primary, but he's pretty conservative)
Poll US Representative David Schweikert
Secretary of State Ken Bennett
US Representative Jeff Flake
___
Other questions to ask in Arizona:
Has the political rhetoric gotten too high in this state?
Do you approve of the job of Clarence Dupnick? (The sheriff who's been investigating the crime)
Do you approve of the job of Joe Arapio?
Do you think State Senators should be free to carry guns in the state legislative chamber? (which they are allowed to do)
Can you ask other Republicans in case of a Kyl retirement? Jeff Flake and John Shadegg perhaps.
Arizona: Ask some sort of gun control question to see if the Tucson shootings have affected public opinion in what is normally a pro-gun state.
-Check in on SB 1070's favorables.
-Try Ann Kirkpatrick vs. Kyl
South Carolina: Ask whether voters would like to see Mark Sanford run for public office again.
Arizona-
Republican -
*Senator Kyl (may retire)
*Sheriff of Maricopa Co. Joe Arpiro
*Governor Jan Brewer
*Congressman Jeff Flake
*Secretary of State Ken Bennett
Democrats-
*Sec. of Homeland Security and former Goveror Jan Napolitano
*Former Attorney General Terry Goddard (lost to Jan Brewer for 2010 Governor)
*Former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick
***********************************
South Carolina -
*Approval of Nikki Haley
*DeMint for President (GOP Primary and General)
*Generic GOP Primary ballot for Graham 2014(Yes it's early, but just a generic would you support Graham, or prefer another Republican)
***That's all I can think of for SC.. No 2012 contest.
It would be nice to have a question about birthright citizenship for Arizona
In SC,
Include DeMint in the mix.
Maybe Jim would consider running in that primary to thin out the votes for Huckabee and Palin.
My bet is, the Romney benefits from his OLD PAL running in that state.
I could see him doing to keep Huckabee from winning. DeMint is not a Huckabee fan!
Maybe even a prelude to a Romney/DeMint ticket.
How's that for solving Romney's so-called southern problem?
How aware are people of the candidate's weaknesses? Why do those who do not support Romney/Palin etc chose not to do so? Is it because Romneycare? Because she resigned? Could the reason why some people don't support Huckabee be that he commuted Clemens? Or is it a bigger problem for him that he is perceived as anti-mormon and bigoted?
It would be interesting to find out some of the reasons why people support or don't support a candidate, don't you think? Is Romney's business experience his most attractive characteristic? Does Huckabee's strength lie in his record of balancing the budget or in his social conservatism? This could also be asked of those who do not support the candidate, so that the candidates may get an idea about what they should emphasize to win more supporters.
The wording could be something like "What do you consider to be the biggest strength/weakness of the potential candidate [insert name]?"
Pretty boring week.
Kyl vs Napolitano is the alone interesting option.
You should poll a few issues. Perhaps something on global warming and gay marriage, just to see what the stattus of those issues are in red-leaning states.
Oh, and don't forget the general election. I'm interested to see if SC would be competitive if Palin is nominated. Arizona, too.
For Arizona, Terry Goddard and Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon would be good potential opponents for Kyl.
For South Carolina a hypothetical Mark Sanford vs. Lyndsey Graham primary would be good as there is real talk of a Sanford comeback. Polling Sanford with the general electorate should also be interesting. Also, it's worth seeing if Vince Shaheen may be popular enough to win a race in the near future.
You should check on the 2012 Republican Presidential primary again to see if Gingrich's support is still strong (it seems as if he's been falling behind in more recent polls).
In your next national poll, it would be interesting to have a question on each of the Republican Presidential contenders in which respondents are asked to answer as to whether or not a word describes each candidate. Words would include things like: conservative, moderate, liberal, honest, dishonest, opportunistic, principled, qualified, unqualified, etc.
Please poll SC with and without DeMint.
Maybe do a 2nd choice poll, too. That would help us see who profits from any candidate not running.
Sounds like the Rombots are getting a little desperate in SC and the South along with the Midwest in general...
Take out this guy, put in that guy... LOL!
Comedy Gold!!!
What about Rotellini as opponent for Kyl? She's supposedly interested, and it would serve as a baseline.
Arizona:
Support/oppose the Show Me Your Papers Act (particularly the white/hispanic crosstabs). Support/oppose unlicensed concealed carry. Support/oppose new laws restricting the access of the mentally disturbed to firearms. McCain as 'bonus' presidential candidate to see how he performs in his home state relative to when he actually ran in 2008.
South Carolina:
Which would SC voters prefer - higher taxes, higher deficits, or closing military bases, ports, and airfields in South Carolina to reduce spending?
Be sure to ask Obama vs. likely Republican candidates in both states. It'll be interesting to see how he stands in both of these states. Obama made huge gains in SC in 2008 and while it'd be difficult for him to win it in 2012, it could be a possibility. I wonder if he'll continue to make gains though. It'll also be interesting to see if he has a chance in Arizona since the immigration issue has happened. A couple of polls that came out about a month after the immigration debate indicated that Obama had lost all hopes of winning Arizona in 2012, but it'll be interesting to see if this still holds true.
Oh one more thing, perhaps you should ask Arizona voters how they feel about the immigration law as it currently stands, and maybe ask South Carolina voters if they'd favor an Arizona type law in their state.
You should definitely use the words "Show Me Your Papers Act" in your survey. See if you can get Gestapo in the question too. Maybe start off with "Why do Republicans hate Hispanics so much?"
How about approval on a gun purchase requiring a clean bill of mental health and no violent criminal record?
For Arizona, I'd definitely do Obama versus Huckabee, Romney, Palin, and Gingrich, as well Pawlenty and Thune. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him leading any of those candidates, even if it is by just a few points. For the senate race, I'd consider doing:
-Kyl v. Janet Napolitano
-Kyl v. Terry Goddard
-Kyl v. Phil Gordon
-Kyl v. Generic Democrat
-David Schweikert v. Janet Napolitano
-David Schweikert v. Terry Goddard
-David Schweikert v. Phil Gordon
-David Schweikert v. Generic Democrat
-Paul Gosar v. Janet Napolitano
-Paul Gosar v. Terry Goddard
-Paul Gosar v. Phil Gordon
-Paul Gosar v. Generic Democrat
-Generic Democrat v. Generic Republican
For South Carolina, I'd definitely do Obama versus Huckabee, Romney, Palin, and Gingrich, as well Pawlenty and Thune. I'd also throw in DeMint, just for good measure. That's probably a good way to establish Obama's floor in the state.
It'd be interesting to see Lindsey Graham's approval ratings, but I'm not sure it makes sense to start polling for the 2014 Senate race. There's really no indication who the candidates might be.
Don't be silly. "Why do Republicans hate Hispanics so much" has too many potential answers to respond to with a keypad.
In general, PPP can figure out proper wording. They managed to poll the question of Republican efforts to repeal the health care bill without including the slanted Republican name of the actual bill; they can manage to poll the Show Me Your Papers Act under a more neutral name too. But commenting on the blog, you know exactly which bill I mean, so I don't mind using the descriptive term for it.
We have seen few polls of Arizona since the 2010 election. The Presidency should be interesting because John McCain won the state by less than the usual difference that the Favorite Son effect has.
I would suggest asking whether an Obama/McCain rematch would do as a control for other possible match-ups.
Agree that it would be very interesting to see poll numbers on the "Show Me Your Papers" Act (if that's what we want to call it now..) post-shooting in Arizona.
Ah one more thing you should ask. Apparently both Arizona and South Carolina have lawmakers that are attempting to pass a law that would strip citizenship from children of illegal immigrants. You should poll people on whether or not they support this measure.
Here's an interesting idea: Poll not just Presidential candidates, but Presidential-VP combinations.
Question wording could be something like this...
"Would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely, to support the following Republican tickets:
Romney for President, Huckabee for Vice President
Romney for President, Palin for Vice President
Huckabee for President, Romney for Vice President
Huckabee for President, Palin for Vice President
Palin for President, Romney for Vice President
Palin for President, Huckabee for Vice President"
This could tell us a lot about whether or not it would be worthwhile for the eventual Presidential nominee to throw a bone to other parts of the Republican base by selecting a primary rival for Vice President.
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