Next week we'll have new polls from North Carolina and West Virginia out.
We're going to do nominations and a vote for the states where we poll next weekend so please give us your suggestions on where to poll and what to poll there, including specific match ups if it's for a 2012 race.
The only restriction is that we're not going to poll somewhere we've already done a poll since the end of the 2010 election cycle- that rules out Montana, Virginia, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Missouri, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wyoming, New Jersey, Iowa, Texas, and West Virginia. We're going to try to hit every state that might be interesting next year before we start doing repeats.
Thanks as always for your good ideas! We'll pick some finalists from your suggestions and put it to a vote starting Monday.
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53 comments:
Poll California to see #s for a Feinstein/Whitman showdown.
New Mexico.
Bingaman on the D side obviously and in case he retires Lujan, Heinrich and Hector Balderas.
On the Republican side, Heather Wilson, Steve Pearce (just the thought of that happening again hurts my head) and maybe Matt Chandler? GOP has a weak bench in NM, but took the governorship with an unknown candidate last time.
Chicago and Philadelphia mayor's races.
Sorry to suggest more than one, but I'd like to nominate:
-Arizona, with focus also being on how Kyl is doing.
-Connecticut, now we know Lieberman's not running for re-election
-Indiana, for the Tea Party vs Lugar angle
-Maine, for Snowe
-Maryland
Well, out of the 2004 Bush/2008 Obama states only Colorado and New Mexico are left I guess.
I think you should poll there first, then switch over to states that are stronger "blue" or "red".
Do New Hampshire. See if Obama can win it despite the red tide there in 2010. Also, test the generic ballot there and see if Jon Lynch has enough support for another term. Although it would be a fifth term and he might retire. In which case, see if Hodes or another prominent NH Democrat can win a possible open governorship.
Not a lot of options left, but Arizona sticks out.
VT Gov. and VT Senate
Open seat candidates in CT-SEN against McMahon and others; open ND-SEN seat
Bysiewicz, Murphy, Courtney vs. McMahon, Schiff, Foley, Shays, Simmons in CT
Colorado pres.
Connecticut - Murphy v Bysiewicz primary numbers would be great, as well as seeing if the Republicans could make this close with anybody.
California - Feinstein/Whitman. Also, could Feinstein be a target of a primary?
Republican primary numbers in both would be interesting.
ohio!!!! very curious to see how sen. brown is looking and how obama's policies are playing in this swing state.
Maryland, Rhode Island, Hawaii are possible choices.
Washington State has a lot of good stuff. For one thing the Presidential numbers would be fun: while the state leans Democratic its not out of the question the right type of Republican could put it into play (and Bush came fairly close both times).
The Governor and Senate races also should get a look. For Governor on the Republican side there's definitely AG Robert McKenna, and adding Dave Reichert would be interesting. For the Dems there's Jay Inslee and King County Executive Dow Constantine. For Senate against Cantwell Reichert and Rossi would be good picks.
North Dakota and Nebraska:
Do the Dems start at 51? Do they have any prarie hopes?
Arizona is probably the best... test weakness of Kyl, see how Obama stacks up this go round, and there's been some buzz about AZ breaking the RNC rules and leapfrogging to a Feb '12 Pres primary
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/01/arizona-gop-to-ask-brewer-for-early-2012-primary----breaking-rnc-rules.php
IN with Lugar primary numbers and some match-ups of a non-Lugar candidate with the likes of Ellsworth/Bayh/Hill would be interesting, as would Obama numbers in the state.
Similar Snowe primary numbers an non-Snowe hypotheticals would be interesting as well.
North Dakota has a lot of possibilities for Senate matchups, House matchups, but it might be worth waiting another week or two because I think the field here is still very unclear compared to the TX field.
CT with the Dem Sen primary would be interesting but otherwise it seems pretty dull.
if I had to pick one, AZ, though maybe Obama's numbers might come up inflated a bit there after the Tucson memorial speech.
Arizona and New Hampshire. Arizona because it's still got interesting races - all the more so if there's unhappiness surrounding the way the Republican-controlled state government is mishandling the budget deficit there. New Hampshire to get a gauge on how much of an aberration 2010 was (and hopefully with some polling on 'do you approve of the job Republicans are doing in the NH legislature' to see how fast they've burned through their honeymoon).
ND and IN would be interesting.
Indiana- open governor's race and Lugar primary
North Dakota or Nebraska. Everyone knows Nelson is in trouble but let's get some real numbers behind that assumption.
Try Maine, to see how Snowe's doing in her primary (you could also test Dem vs. tea partier and Dem vs. tea partier vs. Snowe and Dem vs. tea partier vs. Cutler). 2012 ME is IMO the most interesting Senate race that cycle. Also good to check up on LePage's approvals.
There are three states that you haven't polled yet, that are between Texas and Michigan in terms of '08 Presidential result (i.e., within the band of competitive states you've already polled), and that have Senate contests in 2012:
Indiana
Arizona
North Dakota
If polling Indiana, Richard Lugar primary challenge is the most interesting story, combined with how a Tea Party nominee would do in the general. Kent Conrad's retiring from North Dakota, which makes it a somewhat interesting contest, and I think Arizona has a little bit of intrigue...
Do South Carolina with Jim DeMint as the additional candidate.
He could run as a favorite son there and END any hopes Huckabee might have for the nomination.
Romney has NH and NV, Huck has Iowa and nada!
Arizona please. I want to see how well Obama does there.
For the next poll I would like PPP continue looking to the most interesting senate and gubernatorial races:
Nebraska
Connecticut
Maine
Washington
This should be first...
Whatevery you do, please leave Palin out of the poll to see where her support goes too.
Please leave Palin out of the poll. I find it difficult to think she runs at this point.
Colorado and New Hampshire
Washington state - Senate race, Cantwell v any number of R's (put Rossi in there for good humor); and Governor, AG Rob McKenna (R) v a string of D's including Congressman Jay Inslee, state Auditor Brian Sonntag, state Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown.
South Carolina, obviously. Does Huckabee's momentum continue? Was the last poll, where he finished fourth, just an outlier or has SC really no love for him?
He's doing well in Florida, Texas, Iowa... all important states. But what about SC?
Arizona:
Kyl vs Napolitano
Kyl vs Giffords
Kyl vs Pastor
Kyl vs Coppersmith
Democratic preference for senate with all.
Connecticut:
Bysiewicz vs Rell
Bysiewicz vs McMahon
Bysiewicz vs Simmons
Bysiewicz vs Foley
Murphy vs Rell
Murphy vs McMahon
Murphy vs Simmons
Murphy vs Foley
Democratic primary
Republican primary (with all them)
North Dakota:
For senate and for governor...
Dorgan vs Schafer
Dorgan vs Dalrymple
Dorgan vs Berg
Dorgan vs Tony Clark
Pomeroy vs Schafer
Pomeroy vs Dalrymple
Pomeroy vs Berg
Pomeroy vs Tony Clark
Heidi Heitkamp vs Schafer
Heidi Heitkamp vs Dalrymple
Heidi Heitkamp vs Berg
Heidi Heitkamp vs Tony Clark
Republican preference for senate and for governor with all.
Democratic preference for senate with all.
Opinion about possible Snowe party switch.
Indiana
Bayh vs Lugar
Bayh vs Quayle
Bayh vs Daniels
Bayh vs Stutzman
Bayh vs Pence
Kernan vs Lugar
Kernan vs Quayle
Kernan vs Daniels
Kernan vs Stutzman
Kernan vs Pence
Some of them (Kernan, Stutzman and Pence) for governor too
Republican preference for senate and for governor with all.
Democratic preference for senate and for governor with all.
Maine
Snowe vs Baldacci
Snowe vs Michaud
Snowe vs Pingree
Republican primary (with Paul LePage, with David Emery, with Jim Longley Jr, with Chandler Woodcock and with Peter Cianchette).
Democratic preference for senate and for governor with all.
Nebraska
Nelson vs Heineman
Nelson vs Karnes
Nelson vs Terry
Nelson vs Smith
Nelson vs Fortenberry
Nelson vs Christensen
Nelson vs Stenberg
Nelson vs Bruning
Nelson vs Osborn
Republican preference for senate with all.
Washington
(Cantwell for senate and the other democrats for governor).
Cantwell vs McMorris Rodgers
Cantwell vs McKenna
Cantwell vs Reichert
Gregoire vs McMorris Rodgers
Gregoire vs McKenna
Gregoire vs Reichert
Adams vs McMorris Rodgers
Adams vs McKenna
Adams vs Reichert
Inslee vs McMorris Rodgers
Inslee vs McKenna
Inslee vs Reichert
Republican preference for senate and for governor with all.
Democratic preference for governor with all.
Missouri and Indiana would be interesting. I'm curious to see if Obama has slipped in those states.
Colorado would be a good pick, too. My hunch is that Obama's win in 2008 was flukey. Colorado's politics are very conservative, Obama's numbers there has been very poor, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent GOP candidate post a double-digit win. And yet I still think Obama wins re-election, which should put to rest the notion that Colorado is a bellweather when, in fact, it's really not.
Maybe wait a little on Calif-wait for the Whitman possibility to develop a bit more. Plus, Jerry Brown's honeymoon may end early he has a nasty job. Not sure what other states to suggest - but boy that GOP field is crowded. They are going to do a straw poll in New Hampshire during their annual GOP State meeting (either this Sat or next - not clear in article) and they have 20 candidates listed, plus a space to right in.
One more thing, I keep thinking that the recent strong partisanship by the GOP will come back to bite them. Some other polls recently showed the Dems and GOP almost even in the percentage for negative approval of job performance. I know that I wish they would just work together-and the negativity is wearing real thin.
North Dakota, New Mexico, Arizona
For Republicans, poll awareness of the NH straw poll that just happened to see if anyone is actually paying attention to it
My choices are like this Georgia > South Carolina > Mississippi > Arizona for President
Obama made huge gains in Georgia and South Carolina in 2008, and by 2012 Georgia could very well turn blue (He lost it by 5%). The reason I say Mississippi is because according to a poll by Gallup that came out last year Obama has a net approval there. While I'm extremely skeptical of this, I'd like to see another poll to confirm this. Arizona is another one that I'd like to see because people were predicting that it might flip in 2012, but with the immigration issue I wonder if this will still hold true.
Poll Arizona and Nebraska. I want to see a Giffords vs. Kyle matchup.
Colorado used to be very conservative, but hasn't been for some time now. Democrats control both houses of the state legislature plus the governorship, picked up senate seats, picked up house seats, etc. It has a lot of very conservative voters and a lot of fairly liberal voters, and not much in between. But it did just elect a Democratic governor to an open seat by a healthy margin in the middle of a Republican national wave; in a Presidential year it's at least a light blue to start.
Obama match-ups:
There are three states I wish to see polled, for the data would be very telling:
-IN, which Obama won by +1.03% in '08
-NM, which continues to see large growth in its hispanic population.
-GA, where Obama lost by only 5.20%, the best showing for a democrat overall since 1976. The GA numbers would be interesting to see especially in the case of Mitt Romney. I assume that Gingrich and Huckabee would do exceptionally well here.
Additionally, it would be good to get a new snapshot of OH, now that Obama's numbers have demonstrably gone up. The buckeye state is still the bellwether of the nation, no matter how you slice it.
@NRH - Republican in Colorado did take control of the State House with a 33-32 margain.
North Dakota
Maine Republican Primary
Rhode Island: Whitehouse vs. Carcieri
Hawaii: Akaka vs. Lisa Lingle
For the primary, poll how many Republicans would vote for "a tea party candidate" over the current Romney/Palin/Huckabee/etc.
Georgia!!!
Here are some suggestions:
*California - look at Meg Whitman and former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado for GOP. Maybe Lt. Gov Gavin Newsom as a Dem if Feinstein declines.
*Maryland - Look at Mary Kane, Bob Ehrlich, Michael Steele(for fun), Andy Harris, John Lepold and David Craig.
South Carolina, please.
In the interest of brevity, I will second all those who have suggested Indiana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Georgia, Arizona, and South Carolina, especially for the presidential race but also for the senate races. I'd also like to add South Dakota for the presidential race and Tennessee for both the presidential race and the senate race. In Tennessee, I'd like to see the following senate match ups:
-Corker v. Jim Cooper
-Corker v. Bart Gordon
-Corker v. A C Wharton
-Corker v. Karl Dean
-Corker v. Ron Littlefield
-Corker v. Generic Democrat
I know that there are two states that PPP doesn't poll because of some law, and if I have suggested them above, I apologize.
Louisiana and Mississippi. Both have had almost no polling and it would be good to check if CW is correct. Plus the clock is ticking on both races.
LA: Jindal vs. Landrieu, Jindal vs. generic D vs. generic Tea Party.
MS: Bryant vs. DuPree, Bryant vs. Gene Taylor. Also R primary: Bryant vs. Dennis vs. Holliday.
South Carolina and Georgia : )
Let's see how well Newt and Huck do.
And how far Romney and Palin continue to slide.
Nebraska, Kansas, Tennessee, Louisiana and Mississippi would also be good candidates.
Maine and Washington
May I suggest repolling Texas with George W. Bush as the GOP Nominee against the likely Dem. candidates?
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