We're going to have polls out in Arizona and South Carolina next week as well as a few surprises we haven't said anything about yet.
It's time to do another round of nominations for the two states where we'll poll next weekend. We'll pick some finalists out of the suggestions you give us over the weekend and then have a vote starting Monday.
Here are the states we have already polled since November. We're not going to start repeating states for a while: Virginia, Montana, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Iowa, New Jersey, Texas, Arizona, Wyoming and South Carolina.
The one state we are willing to poll again is Missouri because a lot has changed there since we polled in early December. So if you're interested in that let us know and we might put it in the mix for next week.
Beyond that tell us where you want to see a poll and what you want us to poll there, thanks as always for the great suggestions!
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36 comments:
I'll renominate Washington state. It has a competitive governor's race and could very well have a competitive Senate race as well, and an interesting Presidential contest isn't out of the question there.
What senate matchups are being polled in AZ?
I think Missouri would be interesting. SUSA had a poll out with Congressman Sam Graves trailing McCaskill 48-44. Sarah Steelman is the only announced GOP candidate. Congresswoman JoAnne Emerson may also run. The Governor's race is likely to be highly competitative, between Democrat Governor Jay Nixon, and Republican Lt. Governor Peter Kinder.
It's beyond time for CT and CO to be done.
California. Has Romney's support collapsed there as well, or is it only a southern phenomena?
New York - to check the same thing essentially. NY has a very active conservative wing of its republican party. Can they help Huckabee or Palin, or is the state still in the heart of Romneyland?
Rhode Island.
New York and California
New Hampshire. Approval rating for the state legislature, support for marriage equality, and 'if you did not vote in 2010, do you now wish you had?' (1 = voted, 2 = did not vote and don't wish, 3 = did not vote and regrets it)
Missouri and New York!! (NY becomes kinda the Wild Card -where Romney could quite possibly post Jersey type numbers)
I'm going to nominate Georgia and Missouri. Those are perhaps the only two states that Obama can hope to flip in 2012, pending the results of Arizona and South Carolina and just maybe Mississippi.
I think ND would be interesting; lets see how Pomeroy would do against Republicans for Conrad's seat.
I'd also like to see how well Bingaman is doing; I know his approvals are high, but I'd like to see how Lujan or Heinrich would do if he retires.
I'll go ahead and renominate Missouri ...
Sam Graves, Jo Ann Emerson, Sarah Steelman, Ed Martin (the guy who ran in MO-03 and came close), and Ann Wagner (The former Missouri Republican Party Chairman) are all potential candidates.
I'll also go ahead and nominate Nebraska. It nearly won this week (came in 3rd place) and we still need to get further confirmation on how much trouble Ben Nelson is in.
What about Connecticut?
Democrats Joe Courtney, Chris Murphy, Ted Kennedy Jr., and Susan Bysewicz are considering runs or have announced.
And could Bernie Sanders be vulnerable against the Republican State Auditor? Another thing to check in on here is the governor race in 2012 (VT does it every two years) and support for the state's proposed new single payer healthcare plan.
I want to see MO and NY.
GEORGIA!
Colorado and Georgia
In South Carolina it'd be interesting to see what effect- if any- the much-bandied about outing of Senator Graham would have if it occurred.
Can you poll Washington? I'd like to see Maria Cantwell's numbers, as well as some gubernatorial numbers.
Colorado and New Hampshire please.
Indiana, North Dakota and Georgia should be interesting.
Connecticut (interesting open seat)
Maine (interesting republican primary for the senate)
Nebraska (interesting senate race)
Washington (interesting senate and gubernatorial races)
I forgot: If you do New York, include Guiliani. Like, first you ask which one people would choose if Guiliani was in the race, and then who they would choose if he wasn't. Would be interesting to see if he could win New York, and where he takes his votes (I assume Romney - but I could be wrong).
Washington would also be interesting. Has the commutation of Maurice Clemmons seriously hurt Huckabee in that state? Remember he almost won it last time around, despite the fact that he's campaign had already been declared dead by most pundits.
Here are a few suggestions:
* New Mexico (w/ Heather Wilson, and for fun Susana Martinez)
* Maryland (w/ Ehrlich, Harris, Mary Kane)
* Rhode Island (w/ Carcieri)
* Hawaii (w/ Lingle)
* Missouri (w/ Steelman, Graves, Emerson)
* California (w/ Meg Whitman, Tom Campbell, Darrell Issa)
I guess Connecticut and North Dakota since just recently the incumbent U.S. Senates up for relection in 2012 announced publicly they're not seeking another term?
Plus Indiana seen it's clear now that Mike Pence is running to succeed Mitch Daniels and also Dick Lugar's charm offensive on conservatives activists didn't work and state Treasurer Richar Mourdock has been courting their support and told the Indianapolis Star he had done some private polling.
Wisconsin? After the Republican response to the SOTU by Paul Ryan aka Gabe from NBC's "The Office" was suppose to make him a new star. Paul/Gabe says he isn't interesting in the U.S. Senate election unless Herb Kohl declines to run.
Hawaii? Daniel Akaka versus Linda Lingle. Would it really be as competive as sthe pundit make it out to be?
Washington State? It has a pretty interesting gubernatorial election in 2012 with more then one big name in both parties showing interesting. Also haven't much of anything on how Maria Cantwell is looking in her re-election bid.
ND would be interesting, I'd like to see what Pomeroy's favorables are (was 2010 a rejection of him specifically, or did voters vote him out because of anti-Democrat sentiment even though they liked him personally?). Also Maine, to see how vulnerable Snowe is in the primary, both as a general "Snowe vs. generic conservative R" and vs. more specific candidates like Andrew Ian Dodge. If you poll Maine, be sure to test a three way race if Snowe decides to pull a Murkowski and run as an independent (technically Murkowski was still runnning as a Republican, but you get the idea). I would bet this is the easiest path to victory for Snowe. It might also be interesting to test Snowe running as a Democrat in the Democratic primary. After those two, I'd like to see a poll of Utah. Obviously no action in the general and GOP primary is locked up for Romney, but the two things I'd like to see are primary numbers for Hatch vs. Jason Chaffetz (even though it will be decided by convention, I'd like to see what the GOP electorate as a whole thinks), and Jim Matheson vs. Chaffetz in the general election for senate. Finally, I'd like to see primary numbers for Radtke vs. Allen in VA, but since you polled that state already you're probably not going back to it for a while.
Washington State is a solid Blue stae in an election year. The Gubernational race will be exciting though, I don't see Gov. Gregoire re-running though.
I would nominate Maine's Senate Primary/Election. I would also nominate Nebraska (we just kept in our Democratic Mayor this past week, he was up for a recall) and North Dakota's Senate race.
Missouri again?
without poll CT-Sen, ME-Sen or NE-Sen?
New York or Indiana. We still don't know how these important states will vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary.
I suggest a poll question of "Do you agree or disagree with the statement, 'Global warming is not an issue because God promised after Noah's Flood not to destroy the world again"
(context: This is a paraphrase of a comment by the current Republican chair of the House Energy Committee.)
Nebraska and/or North Dakota
1. Indiana. has it really become "safe Republican" again?
2. Georgia. Second-biggest (in EV) state that President Obama lost. The military presence may have helped a war hero, but no GOP figure is one, and Obama stands to benefit (or lose) from military and diplomatic policy.
3. Colorado. Republicans barely missed winning the state, but is that because the Republicans were wacky or because the state is drifting D due to demographics?
Folks, how often do the people from PPP have to tell you that they CAN'T poll Indiana or North Dakota anymore because they now have laws that BAN robo-polling. PPP does not want to get sued.
Nebraska.
However, the more important question is what is being polled, not where.
At this point in the electoral cycle, the focus should be on establishing a baseline to compare against once the primaries begin. Topical issues that are unlikely to be prominent next year should be avoided.
Nebraska..it was so close last week!!
I'll show off my New England bias here and ask for:
New Hampshire. It's the first primary for something in 2012... Oh yeah! POTUS! GOP12 and Obama v. GOP12. I would also love to see general election numbers for New Hampshire.
And Connecticut. Now that there's no Lieberman, this race is an open seat from a blue state that was (supposedly) close last round. Poll GOP12, Obama v. GOP12, and Senate both sides.
My third choice would have to be Maine. It's a swing state, especially if Romney is involved. And Olympia Snowe is up for reelection. Really interesting stuff there.
Thanks for making the process of where you poll semi-democratic.
North Dakota and Missouri.
I'd also like to see Colorado polled, though I'm absolutely convinced that the state will go GOP next year. It's so much more conservative than the "new blue" hype that the media has indulged in. So, on second thought, don't bother. ND and MO would be much more interesting.
In light of recent developments, can I make a suggestion about the four/five main Republicans that you test against Obama?
Both John Huntsman, Jr. and Haley Barbour are looking more and more like actual candidates for the Republican nomination than Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich. Gingrich has toyed with the idea of running for President many times in the past, but has never actually pulled the trigger and Mike Huckabee keeps delaying his decision.
Huntsman just resigned and should announce his candidacy soon and Barbour has been calling prospective donors to gauge their support. I suggest adding both of them to the list of your normal "adversaries" to Obama and dispense with the random "vote for an extra Republican" poll:
Obama v. Romney
Obama v. Huckabee
Obama v. Palin
Obama v. Gingrich
Obama v. Barbour
Obama v. Huntsman
There really aren't any other Republicans who could run in a serious way. Mitch Daniels will probably pass until 2016, Pawlenty has some serious telegenic issues, DeMint and Santorum are the type of candidate that runs in the beginning but drops out due to low support, Thune and Johnson's bases are too small to compete, the two announced candidates (Karger and Cain) don't stand a chance, and the rest of the prospective candidates are speculative.
The good-ish candidates have already passed (Bush, Corker, Petraeus, Christi, Perry, etc.) and the old non-south guard of the Republican Party couldn't win because of the ideological extremity of the base at the moment. Can you imagine someone like Gregg trying to run?
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